Historically, one of the first methods to be widely used in forecasting was the extrapolation method. Its essence is the construction of dynamic (statistical or logical) series of indicators of the predicted process from the earliest possible date in the past (retrospective) up to the date of advance (prospect) of forecasts. With this approach, the choice of the optimal type of functions is carried out (accounting for time, conditions, etc.). The use of complex extrapolation formulas, the conclusions of probability theory, game theory - the entire arsenal of modern mathematics and cybernetics, which makes it possible to more accurately assess the scale of possible shifts and extrapolated trends, has a great effect.

However, in social forecasting, extrapolation is limited. This is due to a number of reasons. Some social processes develop along curves that are close to a logical function. Up to a certain point, the process slowly increases, then a period of rapid development begins, which ends with a saturation stage. After that, the process stabilizes again. Failure to comply with this requirement leads to serious errors.

One way to test the reliability of this method may be to extrapolate growth curves "to the point of absurdity." It shows that the current mechanism may change in the future, new trends may arise in its functioning. In this case, the correct solution requires an integrated approach that combines logical analysis, expert assessments and standard calculations.

This was ignored by N.S. Khrushchev and those forces (including scientific ones) who, on the basis of the existing dynamics of the development of the USSR in the 50s (there was an upsurge and rapid growth of the national economy) and the leading capitalist countries, experienced a number of crisis phenomena, made a long-term forecast that the Soviet Union would achieve the most advanced positions in the world by the beginning of the 1980s, which was announced as the onset of the era of communism.

Expert methods are very widely used in forecasting, ranging from analytical notes and round tables to agree on opinions and develop an informed decision to special expert assessments designed to give an objective description of the qualitative and quantitative aspects of the forecasting object based on the processing and analysis of a set of individual expert opinions. . The quality of an expert assessment, its reliability and validity to a decisive extent depend on the chosen methodology for collecting and processing individual expert values, which includes the following steps: selecting the composition of experts and assessing their competence; compiling questionnaires for interviewing experts; obtaining expert opinions; assessment of the consistency of expert opinions; assessment of the reliability of the results; drawing up a program for processing expert opinions.

Solving such a difficult task as forecasting new directions, which is necessary to determine prospects and trends, requires more advanced scientific and organizational methods for obtaining expert assessments.

One of them is called the method of the Delphic oracle or the method of Delphi. It provides for a complex procedure for receiving and processing responses. On its basis, scientists make predictions regarding scientific, technological and social progress, military-political and some other problems for decades to come. But to what extent are long-term (and even more super-long-term) forecasts compiled in this way and the very method of their formation reliable?

Forecasts obtained using the Delphi method are based on research and objective knowledge of the object, taking into account the objective views and opinions of the respondents regarding this future. At the same time, intuition plays a big role, which can suggest the right decision, since it is based on the expert's extensive experience. In such cases, forecasts always turn out to be erroneous, for which history knows many examples. Therefore, the intuitive approach does not always lead to the desired results, especially when solving problems of great complexity, and social forecasting is increasingly faced with just such problems. The study of intuitive forecasts, writes, for example, the Austrian forecaster E. Janch, reveals that "they are rather random scraps of systematic thinking, uncritical extrapolations of the current state of affairs and repetitions of other forecasts."

Usually, the Delphi method makes it possible to identify the prevailing opinion of the respondents on a selected range of problems. It is especially suitable for making short-term forecasts, predicting local events, i.e. in relatively simple cases. But the use of the method of expert assessments in any of its variants for long-term, comprehensive, and even more so global, social foresight increases the reliability of forecasts.

Along with the positive aspects of the method of expert assessments, its disadvantages should also be noted: it is cumbersome, since it takes a lot of time for each cycle of obtaining answers from experts, which provide a fairly large amount of information. In addition, since the method is based on the intuition and subjective views of the respondents, the quality of the assessment directly depends on the qualifications of the experts.

The Oedipus effect plays an important role in social forecasting; the possibility of self-fulfillment or self-destruction of the forecast, if the creative activity of people is connected to this process, in the process of which positive expectations are realized or warnings and threats are eliminated. Thus, the construction of a graph of crimes in Russia in the 90s can lead to the conclusion about their inevitable growth, about the involvement in the criminal life of an increasing number of the population. However, it is the awareness and understanding of this perspective that leads to the fact that society focuses on this phenomenon and takes measures to prevent this forecast from taking place.

Thus, forecasts have the ability to self-realization, but only if the needs and interests of people are connected in a single chain, both at the level of social, industrial, and their personal lives. The experience of forecasting and implementing forecasts shows that their value is also associated with the ambiguity of approaches to solving social problems, with the depth of analysis of the degree of probability of possible changes.

A huge role in social forecasting is played by morphological synthesis, which provides for obtaining systematic information on all possible parameters of the problem under study. This method assumes the complete absence of any prior judgment or discussion. This method answers the following types of questions: a) what tools are needed to obtain forecast information; b) what is the sequence of occurrence of events; c) how to trace the application of all means, or all methods, or all stages of solving a given problem? But the requirement is especially significant in this method - not to miss a single opportunity, not discarding anything without a preliminary exhaustive study.

Among the methods used in social forecasting, forecasting scenarios play a significant role. With their help, a logical sequence is established in order to show how, based on a real situation, the future state of an object, research, social process or phenomenon can unfold step by step.

The main significance of the forecast scenario is associated with the definition of development prospects, its main line, as well as the identification of the main factors of the background of development and criteria for assessing the levels of achievement of the goal.

In addition, predictive graphs are used, which can be directed or undirected, contain or not contain cycles, be connected or disconnected, etc. Together with the goal tree, they determine the development of the object as a whole, participate in the formulation of forecast goals, the scenario, in determining the levels and criteria for the effectiveness of forecasts.

And finally, in social forecasting, the method of modeling (optimization of decisions) is widely used, which is associated with the search for development alternatives, which makes it possible to select the best option for given conditions. The task of choosing the optimal option for long-term prospective development requires the definition of an optimality criterion, which should reflect the efficiency of the system and have a simple mathematical expression. Among the methods for solving optimization problems, linear programming is widespread. In dynamic programming problems, a system is considered that can change its state over time, but this process can be controlled.

All mathematical models and forecasting methods are probabilistic in nature and are modified depending on the duration of the forecasting period. The use of models increases the efficiency of forecasting, allows you to consider a large number of possible options and choose the most appropriate one. However, there are also negative aspects in modeling, due to the insufficient accuracy and elasticity of models in forecasting, especially for a long period.

Thus, social forecasting is based on various methods for studying the objective patterns of scientific, technological and social progress, as well as modeling options for their future development in order to form, justify and optimize promising solutions.

Under forecasting methods is understood as a set of techniques and ways of thinking that allow, based on the analysis of endogenous (reflecting the object’s own properties) and exogenous (due to the influence of the predictive background) significant variables of the forecasting object, as well as their measurements within the framework of the phenomenon under consideration, to derive probabilistic judgments of a certain reliability regarding the prospects for their development ( according to R.V. Lenkov).

According to estimates of domestic and foreign scientists, today there are 150-200 different methods of scientific forecasting. However, the number of methods that can be called basic and most common in the practice of social forecasting is much less and reaches 15-20.

The extraordinary variety of methods was caused by the uniqueness and complexity of social systems. On the one hand, in social forecasting, it is necessary to obtain high-quality meaningful information about the object, and on the other hand, the possibility of its further formalization in order to obtain quantitative estimates and statistical data.

Forecasting methods can be classified according to various characteristics and grounds: a) according to the degree of formalization; b) principles of action; c) methods of obtaining and processing information; d) directions and purposes of forecasting; e) the procedure for obtaining the parameters of the predictive model, etc.

Traditional social forecasting uses methods such as extrapolation, modeling, the method of expert assessments. However, today the palette of methods is so extensive that it is required to compile their classification (Table 9.2).

Now briefly about each of them.

Widely used in forecasting expert methods- ranging from analytical notes and round tables to agree on opinions and develop an informed decision to special expert assessments designed to give an objective description of the qualitative and quantitative aspects of the forecasting object based on the processing and analysis of a set of individual expert opinions. Quality expert evaluation, its reliability and validity to a decisive extent depend on the chosen methodology for collecting and processing individual expert opinions, which include the following steps: selecting the composition of experts and assessing their competence; compiling questionnaires for interviewing experts; obtaining expert opinions; assessment of the consistency of expert opinions; assessment of the reliability of the results; drawing up a program for processing expert opinions.

Table 9.2

Forecasting methods (based on the materials of R.V. Lenkov)

Expert	intuitive	Individual expert assessments
		Collective expert assessments
	Analytical	Script writing method
		Delphi method
		Morphological analysis
		Goal Tree
		Matrix Methods
		Analogy Methods
Factual	Statistical	Extrapolation methods
		Interpolation Methods
		Correlation and regression methods
	Leading	Patent dynamics methods

Solving such a difficult task as forecasting new directions, which is necessary to determine prospects and trends, requires more advanced scientific and organizational methods for obtaining expert assessments.

One of them - delphi method, which provides for a complex procedure for receiving and processing responses. This method was developed in 1950-1960. in the United States to predict the impact of future scientific developments on the methods of warfare. The features of the method are correspondence, multi-level, anonymity. Its essence is to use a series of sequential actions - polls, interviews, brainstorming sessions - to achieve maximum consensus in determining the right solution. Analysis using the Delphi method is carried out in several stages, the results are processed by statistical methods (Fig. 9.6).

A feature of the method is that a certain number of independent experts (often not related to each other and not knowing about each other) evaluate and predict the result better than a structured group of experts. The method eliminates the direct contact of experts among themselves, and therefore, group influence, conformism that arise during joint work, make it possible to avoid open clashes between carriers of opposing positions, make it possible to conduct a survey extraterritorially without gathering experts in one place (for example, via e-mail).

Forecasts obtained using the Delphi method are based on research and reliable knowledge, taking into account the views and opinions of experts regarding the future state of the object. In this case, intuition plays a big role, which can suggest the right decision, since it is based on the experience of an expert. At the same time, the study of intuitive forecasts reveals that “they are rather disorderly fragments of systematic thinking, uncritical extrapolations of the current state of affairs and repetitions of other forecasts” (E. Janch, 1974).

Script writing method is based on determining the logic of a process or phenomenon in time under various conditions. The main purpose of the scenario is to determine the general goal of the development of the forecasting object, identify the main background factors and formulate criteria for evaluating the upper levels of the tree of goals. The value of the scenario is higher, the lower the degree

Rice. 9.6.

uncertainties, i.e. the greater the degree of agreement among experts in the feasibility of events, in the development of the process, etc. When writing scripts, some condition is required. For example: in what direction can the social development of Russia go if the law on taxes works, if there is a quality education, if the influence of the shadow economy decreases, if crime decreases.

Method of morphological analysis- an ordered way of considering an object and obtaining systematizing information on all possible options for its development, based on experience and intuition. Includes the following tricks:

• ? systematic consideration of the characteristics of the object;
• ? the desire not to miss any of them;
• ? do not discard anything without prior research.

As a result, new information about the object under study is created and an assessment of all possible alternatives is expressed.

Extrapolation method - its essence is to build series (statistical or logical) of indicators of the predicted process from the earliest possible date in the past (retrospective) up to the date of the forecast perspective. In social forecasting, extrapolation is limited. This is due to a number of reasons. Social processes do not always develop along curves close to logical-mathematical functions. Failure to take this into account leads to simplified forecasting schemes and, accordingly, to serious errors.

plays an important role in social forecasting morphological synthesis, which provides for obtaining systematic information on all possible parameters of the problem under study. This method assumes the complete absence of any prior judgment or evaluation. This method answers the following types of questions: 1) what tools are needed to obtain forecast information; 2) what is the sequence of occurrence of events; 3) how to trace the application of all means, all methods, all stages of solving a given problem? But especially significant in this method is the requirement not to miss a single opportunity, not to reject anything without a preliminary exhaustive study.

Among the methods used in social forecasting, a significant role is played by predictive scenarios. With with their help, a logical sequence is established in order to show how, based on the real situation, the future state of the object of study of interest - a social process or phenomenon - can unfold step by step. The main significance of the forecast scenario is associated with the definition of prospects and the main vectors of development, as well as with the identification of the main factors of the background of development and criteria for assessing the levels of achievement of the goal.

In addition, it is used structural-logical forecasting. This method is associated with the need and possibility of solving the problem while maintaining the functions, but changing the structure and values ​​of the parameter of the forecasting object during the lead time. It uses qualitative logical and quantitative information, mathematical graph theory. Predictive graphs can be directed or undirected, contain or not contain cycles, be connected or unconnected, and so on. Together with the goal tree, they determine the development of the object as a whole, participate in the formulation of forecast goals, scenario development, and in determining the levels and criteria for the effectiveness of forecasts.

Goal Tree- a forecasting method, which consists in the fact that the ultimate goal is divided into a number of components, each of which is also divided into more specific ones, etc. Using this method allows you to systematically trace the order of movement towards a given goal and develop the desired sequence of steps, stages of progress.

Modeling method associated with the search for development alternatives, which makes it possible to select the most effective option for given conditions. The model is an important tool of scientific abstraction, which makes it possible to identify, isolate and analyze the characteristics of an object that are essential for the researcher, its properties, the relationship of elements along the “cause-effect” chain, structural and functional parameters. A model always simplifies reality, therefore, to model a phenomenon means to describe it in a generalized form: to reproduce the functions of an object (“functional analogy”), to reveal the internal structure (“structural analogy”) or to assess the dynamics of its development as a whole (“analogy of relations”, “analogy external form”, “subtractive analogy”) (according to G.Ya. Bush).

Prognostic models have their own characteristics, consisting primarily in the fact that the expected, upcoming development of the object is modeled. The model here acts as some auxiliary hypothesis, so its construction is characterized by additional difficulties.

The task of choosing the optimal option for long-term prospective development requires the definition of an optimality criterion, which should reflect efficiency as the dependence of obtaining the maximum result on the minimum expenditure of resources. The modeling method allows us to consider a system that can change its state over time, and this process can be controlled. The modeling method is based largely on mathematical modeling, however, all these methods are probabilistic in nature and change depending on the duration of the forecasting period. Undoubtedly, the use of models increases the accuracy of forecasting, allows you to consider a large number of possible options and choose the most appropriate one. However, as a method, modeling can suffer from insufficient accuracy and elasticity in forecasting, especially for a long period.

The advantages and disadvantages of all methods are described in great detail by R.V. Lenkov. The group of analytical modeling methods is considered, in his opinion, to be a fairly effective means of predictive research. The advantage of this group of methods, which distinguishes it, in particular from the methods of intuitive forecasting, is that the objectivity of the forecast increases, and the possibilities for considering various options for the development of an object expand. However, during formalization, much remains outside the scope of analysis, and the greater the degree of abstraction, the poorer the model itself.

An essential addition to the traditional, classical methods is the method trend modeling. The trend characterizes the main pattern of movement in time, the existing dynamics of the development of the object as a whole, to some extent free from random influences.

Recently, they have become popular complex forecasting, social forecasting in which it represents only one of the directions. Complex forecasting systems include one of the latest forecasting technologies Forsyth, or creative technology of influence on the future.

Forsythe (from English, foresight- a look into the future) is one of the latest technologies for predicting technological processes, the future development of technical, social, mental phenomena. Originating in the 1950s, it is becoming more and more widespread at the present time. In fact, this is a tool that links the algorithms of various forecasting methods (Delphi method, scenario writing, etc.) with general approaches to managing the socio-economic development of society and the interests of national business.

A feature of Foresight is an active forecast, which includes elements of effective influence on the future, involving active knowledge and vision of the medium and long term, leading to the formation of strategic areas of scientific research and the emergence of basic technologies aimed at obtaining the largest economic and social benefits (B. Martin ).

The first large-scale initiatives to identify priority areas for the development of science were undertaken in the 1950s. American corporation rand, later, this idea was picked up in Japan, where since 1970, large-scale studies of the long-term prospects for the development of science and technology have been carried out every five years. In the early 1980s in the United States launched a national project to develop "critical technologies". And by the mid-1990s, many countries in Europe, Asia, and Latin America, including states with economies in transition, joined the search for innovation development priorities.

Peer assessments are the basis for evaluating options for the future. The Foresight methodology has incorporated dozens of traditional and fairly new expert methods. At the same time, they are constantly improved, methods and procedures are being developed, which ensures an increase in the validity of foresight of the prospects for scientific, technical and socio-economic development. The main vector of development of the methodology is focused on a more active and purposeful use of the knowledge of experts participating in projects. Usually, in each of the foresight projects, a combination of various methods is used, including expert panels, the Delphi method (polls of experts in two stages), SWOT analysis (used in the strategic planning system), brainstorming, scenario building, technological roadmaps, relevance trees, mutual influence analysis, etc. In order to take into account all possible options and get a complete picture of the phenomenon of interest, a significant number of experts are usually involved. Thus, more than 2,000 experts participate in the Japanese long-term forecasts of scientific and technological development, carried out every five years, representing all the most important areas in the development of science, technology and technology, and more than 10,000 experts participated in the latest Korean project.

Foresight is a much more comprehensive approach than traditional forecasting, since it allows assessing the possible prospects for innovative development, outlining not only the possible technological horizons that can be achieved by investing certain funds and organizing systematic work, but also the likely effects on the economy and society ; specific foresight projects include conducting surveys of interested groups of the population (residents of the region, youth, etc.) in solving their problems or problems of a particular region; Foresight is also aimed at the desired result, the development of practical measures that ensure the optimal trajectory of innovative development.

The main principles of the Foresight toolkit are:

• ? involvement (commitment) of public forces (business, the scientific community, public authorities and civil society) in the discussion and comparison of long-term forecasts, development strategies, the development of a more comprehensive vision of the future, reaching consensus and agreeing on ways to achieve the future;
• Sokolov A.V. Foresight: a look into the future // Foresight. 2007. No. 1. S. 8-15.
• Penkov R.V. Social forecasting and design: [textbook, manual for bachelors in the areas of training 040100 "Sociology", 080200 "Management"] / R.V. Lenkov. - M.: TsSP i M, 2013, p. 89-90.

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Introduction

2. The essence and general characteristics of social forecasting

Conclusion

Bibliography

Introduction

social prediction modeling expertise

At the present stage, the organization of the activities of social spheres occurs under the influence of existing social problems in society. Basically, these are the problems of socio-economic and political instability in modern Russia. Determining short and long term programs requires innovative action and broad modern thinking based on the integration of the sciences. The activities of social services should be predictable and projectable at the stage of formation, implementation and development. Forecasting occupies a particularly important place here as a high-tech method of scientific analysis and foresight.

The word "prediction" comes from a Greek word meaning foresight or prediction. However, social forecasting is not one of the types of foresight, but the next stage, which is associated with process management.

1. Emergence of social forecasting

Society's interest in social forecasting is historically associated with attempts to predict the occurrence of certain events, as well as the development of various processes. In the conditions of global wars and local military conflicts, economic and political upheavals that filled the entire world history of the 20th century, the appeal to social forecasting was predominantly of an emergency nature. The scientific need for forecasting was formulated by the American scientist N. Wiener in the form of the foundations of cybernetics in the 40s. XX century. In 1968, when the entire world community was concerned about the ongoing threats of the outbreak of a third world war, the prominent public figure and industrialist A. Peccei founded the Club of Rome, an international organization of scientists, politicians and entrepreneurs, the purpose of which was to draw attention to strategic problems and prospects world development. Reports prepared for the club by prominent scientists J. Forrester, D. Tinbergen, B. Gavrilishin and others gave impetus to the development of science.

In the development of forecasting, the main time stages can be distinguished.

The beginning of predictive research dates back to the 1950s, when simple predictive models began to be widely used. In the 1960s - 1970s. there was a kind of "forecasting boom" - theoretical questions were developed, new methods were developed, complex forecasting models were created. From the late 1970s - early 1980s. the next stage in the development of scientific forecasting is coming, the achievements of forecasting are used in the activities of enterprises and organizations of various profiles.

Today social forecasting is the most important technology of social work.

2. The essence and general characteristics of social forecasting

In the most general sense, forecasting means developing a forecast in the form of formulating a probabilistic judgment about the state of a phenomenon in the future.

In a narrow sense, forecasting means a special scientific study of the prospects for the development of a phenomenon, mainly with quantitative estimates and indicating more or less certain periods of change in this phenomenon.

The forecast does not provide solutions to the problems of the future. Its task is to contribute to the scientific substantiation of development plans and programs. Forecasting characterizes a possible set of necessary ways and means of implementing the planned program of action.

A forecast should be understood as a probabilistic statement about the future with a relatively high degree of certainty. Its difference from foresight lies in the fact that the latter is interpreted as an improbable statement about the future, based on absolute certainty, or (another approach) is a logically constructed model of a possible future with an as yet undetermined level of certainty. It is easy to see that the degree of reliability of statements about the future is used as the basis for the distinction between terms. At the same time, it is obvious that forecasting proceeds from the ambiguity of development.

The forecast has a specific character and is necessarily associated with certain quantitative estimates. In accordance with this, the author refers the expected number of crimes in the next calendar year to the category of forecasts, and the early release of a prisoner under certain conditions - to the category of predictions. It can be concluded that a prediction is a qualitative assessment of the future, and a forecast is a quantitative assessment of the future.

Social forecasting is the definition of development options and the choice of the most acceptable, optimal based on resources, time and social forces that can ensure their implementation. Social forecasting is the work with alternatives, a deep analysis of the degree of probability and the multivariance of possible solutions.

Schematically, the process of social forecasting can be represented as follows:

1) the choice of the object of social forecasting: it can be any social object, from an individual to humanity as an integral part of the noosphere;

2) the choice of the direction of research: economic, legal, social, etc., at different levels of the social sphere it is very difficult to maintain a “clean” line of predictive research, so a significant part of the research is complex;

3) preparation and processing of information on the forecast base, information that meets the requirements is one of the guarantees of the reliability of the forecast, and therefore the key point of social forecasting;

4) the choice of a forecasting method, one of the methods or a set of methods in a certain sequence, meets the requirement of scientific research.

5) actually predictive research;

6) processing of results, analysis of the received information related to the research problem;

7) determination of the reliability of the forecast.

The opportunity to evaluate the forecast follow-up is provided only after the lapse of the time for which this forecast was calculated.

At the same time, it is necessary to note the distinctive, specific features of social forecasting. They can be identified as follows.

First, the goal statement here is relatively general and abstract: it allows for a high degree of probability. The purpose of forecasting is based on the analysis of the state and behavior of the system in the past and the study of possible trends in the change of factors affecting the system under consideration, to correctly determine the probabilistic quantitative and qualitative parameters of its development in the future, to reveal the options for the situation in which the system will find itself.

Secondly, social forecasting does not have a directive character.

In conclusion, we can say that the qualitative difference between a variant forecast and a specific plan is that the forecast provides information to justify the decision and choose planning methods. It indicates the possibility of one or another development path in the future, and the plan expresses the decision on which of the possibilities the society will implement.

There is a noticeable difference between forecasting within the natural and technical sciences, on the one hand, and within the social sciences, on the other.

The weather forecast, for example, can be set with a high degree of probability.

But at the same time, it cannot be canceled by a managerial decision. Within small limits, a person can consciously change the state of the weather (for example, it is possible to clear the sky from clouds in connection with a major public holiday or stimulate avalanches in the mountains), but these are very rare cases of counteraction to the forecast. Basically, a person has to adapt his actions to the weather (take an umbrella if rain is expected; put on warm clothes if it is cold, etc.).

The specificity of social forecasting lies in the fact that the prediction of social phenomena and processes and their management are closely related. Having predicted an undesirable social process, we can stop it or modify it in such a way that it does not show its negative qualities. Having predicted a positive process, we can actively contribute to its development, contribute to its expansion in the territory of action, coverage of people, duration of manifestation, etc.

Social innovation has specific features in a number of other innovations: if in the scientific, technical, economic spheres the meaning of innovation is to achieve greater efficiency, then in the social sphere, establishing efficiency is problematic.

1. In the social sphere, the improvement of the position of some people can create tension (sometimes only psychological) for others. Social innovation is evaluated through the prism of the value-normative system.

2. The successful solution of some social problems may give rise to other problems or turn out to be a success not in the sense in which the task was understood.

The forecast is a multivariate hypothesis about the possible results and ways of development of the object under study (sphere, industry, type of activity, etc.). The purpose of the forecast is the desire to provide answers to the range of questions that make up the essence of the problem.

Social forecasting is the forecasting of everything social, everything connected with society, social relations, in the center of which is a person.

Depending on the time period for which the forecast is made, they are:

- short-term (from 1 month to 1 year);

- medium-term (from 1 year to 5 years);

- long-term (from 5 years to 15 years);

- long-term (over 15 years).

The forecasting process itself involves: conducting a brief retrospective analysis of the predicted object; description of the current state of the object (comparative analysis of observed trends in domestic and foreign experience); problem identification:

- already decided, but their implementation and implementation is just beginning;

- those problems that have been solved, but have not found practical use;

- assessments of experts in leading scientific research in this field.

Thus, social forecasting makes it possible to foresee the results and timely eliminate the causes of social problems.

3. Methods of social forecasting

Currently, there are about 150 forecasting methods and procedures. They are divided into various groups: general scientific, interscientific, particular scientific, which are based on both empirical and theoretical methods.

General scientific methods include: analysis, synthesis, interpolation, induction, deduction, analogy, experimentation, etc. Interscientific methods are represented by brainstorming, the Delphi method, they also include utopia and fantasy. Some of the methods are based on the processing of scientific and technical information (forecasting the development of science and technology) and on various theories (morphological analysis, envelope curves, based on resolving matrices, trial and error, etc.). Private scientific methods present predictions from isobaric maps, tests, etc.

The increased interest in the knowledge of the social encourages the development of more and more new technologies of social forecasting, accumulates a fairly large and capacious scientific potential that reveals the content of both social positions and the sociological nature of problems. Step by step creation of a paradigm is illogical by its very nature. The difficulty lies in presenting the characteristics of such technologies, not in their application.

There are three main specific methods of forecasting: extrapolation, modeling, expertise.

The classification of forecasting into extrapolation, modeling and expertise is rather conditional, since predictive models involve extrapolation and expert assessments, the latter are the results of extrapolation and modeling, etc. In the development of forecasts, methods of analogy, deduction, induction, various statistical methods, economic , sociological, etc.

1. Extrapolation method.

This method was one of the historically first methods that became widely used in social forecasting. Extrapolation is the distribution of conclusions made in the study of one part of a phenomenon (process) to another part, including the unobservable. In the social field, it is a way of predicting future events and states, based on the assumption that some trends that have manifested themselves in the past and in the present will continue.

Extrapolation example: a series of numbers 1, 4, 9, 16 suggests that the next number will be 25, since the beginning of the series is the squares of the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4. We extrapolated the found principle to the unwritten part of the series.

Extrapolation is widely used in demography when calculating the future size of the population, its sex and age and family structures, etc. Using this method, the future rejuvenation or aging of the population can be calculated, the characteristics of fertility, mortality, marriage rates are given in periods that are several years away from the present. decades.

With the help of computer programs (Exel, etc.) it is possible to build an extrapolation in the form of a graph in accordance with the available formulas.

However, in social forecasting, the possibilities of extrapolation as a forecasting method are somewhat limited. This is due to a number of reasons that are related to the fact that social processes develop over time. This limits the possibilities of their accurate modeling. So, up to a certain point, the process can slowly increase, and then a period of rapid development begins, which ends with a saturation stage. After that, the process stabilizes again. If such features of the course of social processes are not taken into account, then the application of the extrapolation method can lead to an error.

2. Modeling. Modeling is a method of studying objects of knowledge on their analogues (models) - real or mental.

An analogue of an object can be, for example, its layout (reduced, proportionate or enlarged), drawing, diagram, etc. In the social sphere, mental models are more often used. Working with models allows you to transfer experimentation from a real social object to its mentally constructed duplicate and avoid the risk of an unsuccessful, all the more dangerous for people, management decision.

The main feature of a mental model is that it can be subject to any kind of tests, which practically consist in changing the parameters of itself and the environment in which it (as an analogue of a real object) exists. This is the great advantage of the model. It can also act as a model, a kind of ideal type, an approximation to which may be desirable for the creators of the project.

In social design, it is more accurate to say that a model created on the basis of a plan and preliminary information makes it possible to identify, clarify and limit the goals of the project being developed.

At the same time, the disadvantage of the model is its simplification. Certain properties and characteristics of a real object in it are coarsened or not taken into account at all as insignificant. If this were not done, the work with the model would be extremely complicated, and the model itself would not contain dense, compact information about the object. And yet there are potential errors in the application of modeling to social engineering and forecasting.

“The idea that the model can only be mathematical, rooted in school years, is deeply mistaken. The model can also be formulated in natural language.”

This circumstance is important to take into account in social design. Modeling techniques can facilitate design tasks and make the project visible. Many people hold a sheet of paper in front of them while talking and, as they present their point of view, they fix the main points, mark the links between them with arrows and other signs, etc. This is one of the common forms of visualization widely used in modeling. Visualization is able to more clearly reveal the essence of the problem and clearly indicate in which directions it can be solved and where to expect success and where failure.

The value of non-mathematical modeling for social design is very high. The model allows not only to develop an effective managerial decision, but to simulate conflict situations that are likely when making a decision, and ways to reach agreement.

In fact, any kind of business games are simulations. The analysis and modeling of social systems has recently been developed into an autonomous sociological discipline with original mathematical software.

3. Expertise. Expertise is a special method of forecasting. In social design, it is used not only to solve problems of predictive justification, but also wherever it is necessary to deal with issues with a low level of certainty of the parameters to be studied. Expertise in the context of research on artificial intelligence is interpreted as the solution of a problem that is difficult to formalize (or poorly formalized). Arose in connection with the problems of programming, this understanding of expertise has acquired a system-wide character. It is the difficulty of formalizing a certain task that makes other methods of its study ineffective, except for expertise. As a way to describe the problem by formal means is found, the role of accurate measurements and calculations increases and, on the contrary, the efficiency of using expert assessments decreases.

So, expertise is a study of a problem that is difficult to formalize, which is carried out by forming an opinion (preparing a conclusion) of a specialist who is able to make up for the lack or non-systematic nature of information on the issue under study with his knowledge, intuition, experience in solving similar problems and relying on "common sense".

A social project is subject to expertise throughout its development and implementation.

At the concept development stage, many indicators are set by experts to measure the effectiveness of the project.

The assessment of the viability of a project relies heavily on expert judgment both in relation to the project and in relation to the social environment in which it is being implemented.

Diagnostic and predictive research in the social field is impossible without the use of expert methods.

When considering the prepared text of the project by the competition commissions, investors, state authorities and local governments, other organizations that make management decisions on the project, an examination is also carried out.

The project is evaluated by experts within the framework of current control over its implementation.

Finally, the completion of the project, the establishment of whether it was possible to implement it in accordance with the plan, also involves an examination.

Conclusion

Forecasting is one of the most important stages of project activity. Forecasting in a broad sense is foresight, in general, obtaining any information about the future. In a narrow sense - a special scientific study, the subject of which are the prospects for the development of phenomena.

The main task of forecasting is the scientific development of forecasts. The forecast describes the future state of the system. Forecast as a cognitive model has a descriptive (descriptive) character.

Forecasting is based on three complementary sources of information about the future:

- extrapolation into the future of trends, patterns of development that are well known in the past and present;

- modeling of research objects, their presentation in a simplified form, a schematic form, convenient for obtaining predictive conclusions;

c) predictive assessment of the expert.

The practical purpose of forecasting is the preparation of reasonable proposals, projects, programs, recommendations and assessments about:

- in what direction is it desirable to develop objects in the study area;

How can development really take place?

- what is the mechanism of overcoming negative tendencies.

In general terms, we can talk about two types of tasks: defining and motivating the development goal; determination of means, ways, ways to achieve goals.

The full cycle of predictive research includes: study of the problem situation in theory and practice; analysis of pre-forecast and forecast background; definition of goals and objectives; hypotheses; selection of research methods and techniques that have the necessary prognostic potential; conducting experimental testing of hypotheses and verification of research results; formulation of conclusions and proposals.

Bibliography

Bestuzhev-Lada I.V. Predictive substantiation of social innovations. M., 1995

Safronova V.M. Forecasting and modeling in social work: Proc. allowance for students. higher textbook establishments. - M.: Publishing Center "Academy", 2002.

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The role of social forecasting in the qualitative development of society as a whole. Methods for constructing forecasts. Expert assessment - the meaning and functions of expert assessment and its differences from the information of a mass survey. The value of social forecasting.

When forecasting, qualitative and quantitative research methods are used. The forecasting method is a method of studying the object of forecasting, aimed at developing a forecast. A set of special rules, techniques and methods constitutes a forecasting methodology.

The most common qualitative forecasting methods include the method of expert assessments.

The method of expert estimates is mainly used in long-term forecasts.

Forecasting is carried out on the basis of the judgment of an expert (a group of experts) regarding the task. These are informal methods. An expert is a qualified specialist on a specific problem who can make a reliable conclusion about the object of forecasting.

In essence, the opinion of a specialist is the result of a mental analysis and generalization of processes related to the past, present and future, based on their own experience, qualifications and intuition.

They are used if the object of forecasting and planning is complex, new, or there is uncertainty in its development.

Expert assessments can be individual or collective. The methods of individual expert assessments include: *

analytical method. Allows you to carry out a logical analysis of any predictable situation and present this analysis in the form of an analytical note. It involves independent work of an expert on the analysis of trends, assessment of the state and development paths of the predicted object; *

interview method. Allows for direct contact between an expert and a specialist according to the “question-answer” scheme, during which the forecaster, in accordance with a pre-developed program, puts questions to the expert regarding the prospects for the development of the predicted object; *

scripting method. Based on the definition of the logic of the development of a process or phenomenon in time under various conditions. The main purpose of the scenario is to determine the general goal of the development of the predicted object, phenomenon and the formulation of criteria for evaluating the upper levels of the “goal tree”. A scenario is a picture that reflects a consistent detailed solution of a problem, identification of possible obstacles, detection of serious shortcomings in order to resolve the issue of a possible termination of ongoing or completed ongoing work on the predicted object; *

goal tree method. It is used in the analysis of systems, objects, processes in which several structural or hierarchical levels can be distinguished. The "tree of goals" is built by sequentially highlighting smaller and smaller components at lower levels.

The methods of collective expert assessments include: *

method of commissions (collective meeting). It consists in determining the consistency of the opinions of experts on the promising directions for the development of the object of forecasting, previously formulated by individual specialists. This means that the development of a given object cannot be determined by other methods. A survey of experts is being conducted with further processing of the survey materials. The final score of the survey is displayed either as an average judgment, or as an arithmetic mean, or as a weighted average of the score. *

the "Delphi" method consists in organizing a systematic collection of expert assessments, their mathematical and statistical processing and consistent adjustment by experts of their assessments based on the results of each processing cycle. Its features lie in the anonymity of experts, a multi-round procedure for interviewing experts through a questionnaire, providing experts with information, including its exchange between experts after each round of the survey while maintaining the anonymity of the assessments, substantiating the answers of experts at the request of the organizers. The method is designed to obtain relatively reliable information in situations of its acute insufficiency. *

brainstorming method. It is advisable to determine possible options for the development of the forecasting object and obtain productive results in a short time by involving all experts in an active creative process. The essence of the method is to mobilize the creative potential of experts during the "brainstorming" and generate ideas with further destruction (destruction, criticism) of these ideas and the formulation of counter-ideas.

The most common quantitative forecasting methods include: *

extrapolation method. This is a method in which the predicted indicators are calculated as a continuation of the dynamic series for the future according to the identified pattern of development. In fact, extrapolation is the transfer of past patterns and trends to the future based on the relationships of indicators of one series. The method allows you to find the level of the series beyond its limits, in the future. Extrapolation is effective for short-term forecasts if the time series data is strong and stable.

To determine the forecast by extrapolation, it is necessary to determine the average annual growth over the past years (formula 1) and extrapolate to future periods (formula 2).

The average annual growth rate (coefficient) is calculated by the formula:

where is the average annual growth rate;

n is the number of years between the base and reporting years,

The value of the predicted indicator in the reporting year,

The value of the forecast indicator in the base year.

Extrapolation Method :

If the preservation of past and present development trends for the future is expected, then one speaks of a formal extrapolation. If the actual development is linked with hypotheses about the dynamics of the development process, taking into account the physical and logical essence, then one speaks of predictive extrapolation. Predictive extrapolation can be in the form of a trend, envelope curves, correlation and regression dependencies, can be based on factor analysis, etc. Extrapolation of a complex order can develop into modeling; *

trend extrapolation method. For this type of extrapolation, as a trend, it is typical to find a smooth line that reflects the patterns of development over time. A trend is a continuation of a trend. Patterns of the past are carried forward into the future. Applicable in short-term forecasting for each specific indicator (separately). The most applicable methods and the most inexpensive. The trend is usually applied as the main component of the forecast time series, on which other components, such as seasonal fluctuations, are superimposed.

Trend-based extrapolation includes: ?

collection of information on the empirical series of the indicator for past periods; ?

selection of the optimal type of function that describes the specified series, taking into account its smoothing and alignment; ?

calculation of the parameters of the selected extrapolation function; ?

calculation of the forecast for the future for the selected function.

normative method (interpolation). The ways and terms of achieving the possible states of the phenomenon, taken as the goal, are determined. We are talking about predicting the achievement of desired states of the phenomenon on the basis of predetermined norms, ideals, incentives and goals. Such a forecast answers the question: in what ways can the desired be achieved? The normative method is more often used for programmatic or targeted forecasts. Both a quantitative expression of the standard and a certain scale of the possibilities of the evaluation function are used. In the case of using a quantitative expression, for example, physiological and rational norms for the consumption of certain food and non-food products developed by specialists for various groups of the population, it is possible to determine the level of consumption of these goods for the years preceding the achievement of the specified norm. Such calculations are called interpolation. Interpolation is a way of calculating indicators that are missing in the time series of a phenomenon, based on an established relationship. Taking the actual value of the indicator and the value of its standards as the extreme members of the dynamic series, it is possible to determine the magnitude of the values ​​within this series. Therefore, interpolation is considered a normative method. The previously given formula (1), used in extrapolation, can be used in interpolation, where Y will no longer characterize the actual data, but the indicator standard; *

methods of regression analysis. The dependence of a certain quantity on another or others is investigated, and this dependence is transferred to the future. Used for objects with a complex and multifactorial structure. Used in medium and long-term forecasting. *

analogy method. It involves the transfer of knowledge about one subject (phenomenon) to another. Such a transfer is true with a certain degree of probability, since the similarity between phenomena is rarely complete. Simulation and experiment necessarily use the method of analogy; *

mathematical modeling. Modeling is perhaps the most complex forecasting method. Means the description of an economic phenomenon through mathematical formulas, equations and inequalities. The mathematical apparatus must accurately reflect the predictive background, although it is quite difficult to fully reflect the depth and complexity of the predicted object. The term "model" is derived from the Latin word modelus, which means "measure". Modeling would be more correct to consider not as a forecasting method, but as a method of studying a similar phenomenon on a model.

CONTROL QUESTIONS: 1.

What explains the uncertainty of the future? 2.

Sequence of development of forecasts. 3.

What does forecast lead time include? 4.

Name the forms of foresight.

Social forecasting is one of the methodologically most complex forms of studying the prospects of processes and phenomena. In the natural sciences, forecasting is used to prepare for the consequences of a given phenomenon. For example, the identification of a high probability of an earthquake or is followed by informing and evacuating people outside the relevant territory. social forecasting are social processes, the outcome of which can be influenced, therefore the value of this type of research of prospects is not only in preparation for future circumstances, but also in the ability to model them.

In practice, the following methods of social forecasting are used:

Method of expert assessments

This method consists in collecting and studying the opinions of experts on the prospects of the studied social phenomenon. The effectiveness of this path is determined by the competence of the experts, the correctness of the questions put to them and the quality of processing the answers received.

The method of the Delphic oracle - a kind of method of expert assessments - is distinguished by a complex scheme of questioning experts: to exclude the influence of the group on the opinion of each specialist, the names of other qualified respondents are not disclosed to the experts, each answers questions independently. Next, the responses are analyzed and the dominant position is determined. After that, the respondents receive the same survey, the arguments of specialists whose opinions are very different from the majority, and the opportunity to change their position. The procedure is repeated until a consensus is reached.

The main advantage of the method is the exclusion of group influence on individual opinion, since it cannot be implemented until a consensus has been reached.

This method can be compared with the last elections. The decision was made by an anonymous vote from the third time. It is obvious that during the elections, none of the candidates managed to perform a “good deed” that could change the opinion of voters. According to custom, the procedure cannot be completed until one of the candidates receives 77 votes. It is logical to assume that long-term social forecasting by the Delphi method is similar to the definition of "hospital average temperature".

Social Modeling. Basic moments

Social forecasting can be done through mathematical modeling. This method allows you to consider many options for the development of events in their correlation with various factors. As in the case with here, there are some difficulties with long-term forecasting. But the advantage of this method is that the expert makes a conclusion, guided not only by his own judgments, but also by the results of "machine" data processing - the variety of options for the future object under study.

extrapolation method

The advantage is the identification of patterns of the phenomenon under study based on the analysis of its history and the consideration of these data in the forecasting process. Social forecasting through extrapolation is the use of complex formulas that allow you to achieve valuable results, which, however, do not guarantee one hundred percent reliability.

Social forecasting is an effective tool for managing social processes in the hands of those who have the opportunity to influence them.