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- Introduction

Conclusion
Bibliography
Introduction
The relevance of the topic - at present, it should be noted the continuously growing need for forecasts. The practical value of the predictive function of scientific theories for the purpose of making sound decisions, both at the state level and at the level of an individual economic entity, has become more acutely realized everywhere. A special place in the theory of scientific forecasting is occupied by financial forecasting, since finance is an important tool for regulating the economy and contributes to its more sustainable development. And at the micro level, financial forecasting can significantly improve enterprise management by ensuring the coordination of all factors of production and sales, the interconnection of the activities of all departments, and the distribution of responsibility.
Thus, the most objective and accurate financial forecasting is the key to the success of the implementation and implementation of the adopted methods and management decisions. Moreover, the methods used in financial forecasting can be equally organically used in the development of forecasts and plans, both at the macro and micro levels.
It should also be noted that the relevance of improving the quality of predictive studies is increasing. This requires a more in-depth study and development of the main problems that arise in financial forecasting. To a certain extent, the study and use of world experience will contribute to the solution of these problems.
The purpose of the course work is the study of financial forecasting in the system of the economy of the Russian Federation and the city of Moscow. The goal is determined by the need to solve the following tasks:
characteristics of financial forecasting, its goals, methods, tasks;
identification of problems of financial forecasting in the system of the economy of the Russian Federation and the city of Moscow;
development of recommendations and measures to solve the problem under study.
The total volume and structure of the course work is represented by an introduction, conclusion, three chapters and a list of references.
The introduction defines the relevance of the topic, goals and objectives.
The first chapter characterizes the socio-economic essence of financial forecasting - a description of the origin, goals, functions.
The second chapter describes the principles and methods of financial forecasting, as well as the areas of its application: at the level of the state and economic entity.
The third chapter analyzes financial forecasting in the economic system of the Russian Federation and the city of Moscow.
financial forecasting budget
Chapter 1. Socio-economic essence of financial forecasting
History shows that forecasting arose many centuries ago. The feudal lords also predicted the development of their economy. But the capitalist brought to perfection the planning and management of production on the basis of a plan within the company. The plan as a system of economic measures in the economy (large or small) arose with the advent of the division and cooperation of labor and serves as a program of management in a certain time period. With the deepening of the division of social labor, it becomes necessary to establish and maintain proportions. Plannedness as a social category arises with the formation of public-state, municipal property.
At the beginning of the twentieth century. the first attempts were made to identify economic indicators. In particular, J. Bruckmeier already in 1911 tried to use three chronological series of the following indicators for forecasting: bank credit index, share price index, index of general economic activity. This approach was further developed in the 1920s in studies at Harvard University, where the so-called "Harvard ABC curves" were used. Curve A was an index of the value of securities on the stock exchange, curve B - the amount of deposits in banks, curve C - the rate of interest. The choice of these indicators as indicators was based on the notion that in the vicinity of the turning points of the cycle, these indicators, first of all, should have fixed the change in the economic situation in the specified sequence.
A powerful impetus to the development of forecasting and planning abroad was the crisis of 1929-1933, which made it necessary to look for ways out of it.
In the 1930s, for the first time abroad, planning appeared at the macro level. Forecasts and plans are becoming a necessary element of economic regulation systems. Forecasts were made using the input-output model, linear programming, systems analysis models and based on expert assessments.
The first plans at the macro level covered fiscal and monetary policy and were expressed in the preparation of national budgets. They differed from state budgets in that they took into account the revenues not only of the state, but also of the country as a whole.
In the post-war years, planning at the macro level becomes the subject of extensive discussions in order not only to avoid crises, but also to regulate the distribution of goods. The nationalization of a number of industries, the growth of the share of the public sector in the economy made it possible for governments to exercise direct control over foreign trade, prices, and finances.
In the 1950s, many countries moved away from the preparation of national plans in the form of budgets. Two new directions have emerged. The first is connected with the complication of the administrative apparatus used to develop plans, the second - with the expansion of the sphere of planning. If at the first stage national economic plans were drawn up in the Ministry of Finance, then at the beginning of the 60s special planning bodies were created: in France - the General Commissariat for Planning; in Japan - Economic Advisory Council, Economic Planning Department; in the Netherlands, the Central Planning Office; in Canada - the Economic Council.
Until the 1970s, forecasting was carried out using national forecasting models. In the mid-70s, macroeconomic models began to be created, with the help of which the development of the economy of a number of countries, regions and the whole world is predicted. They were first developed in the USA. Thus, the LINK model includes 10 national models (9 European countries and Japan). When developing the future of the world economy, the UN used the macroeconomic model of V. Leontiev, which consisted of 15 interrelated regional models.
Each country, taking into account the specifics of the national economy, uses certain approaches to forecasting and planning economic and social processes, constantly improving them in relation to changing conditions.
Financial forecasting - is an activity for the foresight and strategic assessment of the prospects for the development of finance, the volume, composition and structure of financial resources and directions for their use. The main distinguishing features of financial forecasting is the focus on the medium and long term, the estimated and recommendatory nature of the predicted financial parameters.
The purpose of financial forecasting is to develop economically justified estimated parameters for the development of finance, to provide financial resources and finance forecasts for the socio-economic development of the country, its territories and economic entities in the medium and long term, as well as to substantiate the indicators of financial plans. Financial forecasts are a necessary element and at the same time a stage in the development of financial policy. They allow developing various scenarios for solving socio-economic problems facing all subjects of the financial system.
The forecast outlines the areas and opportunities within which real tasks and goals can be set, identifies problems that should become the object of development in the plan. It considers options for active influence on the objective factors of the future development of finance. A financial forecast is such a study of long-term development that is not limited to a specific economic and political decision, and therefore has a preliminary, variant character, its horizons are not limited to the planning period.
The main tasks of financial forecasting are:

Ensuring a long-term relationship between monetary and material and property proportions;

Forecasting the sources, volume and structure of financial resources that authorities and business entities will be able to dispose of;

Substantiation of priorities, directions and ways of using financial resources by authorities and management of organizations;

Determining the result and assessing the financial consequences of the decisions made within the parameters of the financial forecast.

In the process of financial forecasting, financial forecasts are made, which can also be called long-term financial plans. Forecasts can be medium-term for a period of 3 to 5 years, and long-term - for a longer forecast period. The financial forecasts of public authorities in Russia are the consolidated financial balance of the Russian Federation and the medium-term financial plans of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation (municipalities).

At the federal level, a consolidated financial balance of the Russian Federation is compiled for the country as a whole and for sectors. Its income section reflects the forecast values of profit, depreciation, tax revenues, UST, non-tax revenues and receipts, gratuitous transfers, and funds from state extra-budgetary funds. The expenditure section provides a forecast estimate of the following consolidated items: funds remaining at the disposal of organizations; the cost of public investment, fundamental research and promotion of scientific and technical progress; expenses for social and cultural events; spending on national defense and military reforms, spending on law enforcement, ensuring national security of the judiciary; expenses for the maintenance of public authorities and local self-government; expenses for activities, for servicing the state and municipal debt; financial assistance (transfers) to the budgets of other levels; budgetary funds, other expenses. The difference between revenues and expenditures gives the projected value of the deficit and surplus.

Chapter 2. Methods and stages of financial forecasting

In world practice, more than two hundred forecasting methods are used, while in domestic science - no more than twenty. The introduction indicated that the methods of financial forecasting, which are widely used in developed foreign countries, will be considered.

Financial forecasting planning involves the use of the following special methods:

1) Methods of expert assessments, which provide for a multi-stage survey of experts according to special schemes and processing of the results obtained using tools of economic statistics. These are the simplest and most popular methods, the history of which goes back more than one millennium. The application of these methods in practice, usually, is to use the experience and knowledge of trade, financial, production managers of an enterprise or government agency. As a rule, this ensures that the decision is made in the simplest and fastest way. The disadvantage is the reduction or complete absence of personal responsibility for the forecast made. Expert assessments are used not only to predict the values of indicators, but also in analytical work, for example, to develop weight coefficients, threshold values for controlled indicators, etc.

2) Stochastic methods, which assume the probabilistic nature of both the forecast and the very relationship between the studied indicators. The probability of obtaining an accurate forecast increases with the increase in the number of empirical data. These methods occupy a leading place in terms of formalized forecasting and vary significantly in the complexity of the algorithms used. The simplest example is the study of sales trends by analyzing the growth rates of sales indicators. Forecasting results obtained by statistical methods are subject to random fluctuations in data, which can sometimes lead to serious miscalculations.

Stochastic methods can be divided into three typical groups, which will be named below. The choice for forecasting the method of one or another group depends on many factors, including the available initial data.

First situation- the presence of a time series - occurs most often in practice: a financial manager or analyst has at his disposal data on the dynamics of the indicator, on the basis of which it is required to build an acceptable forecast. In other words, we are talking about highlighting a trend. This can be done in various ways, the main of which are simple dynamic analysis and analysis using autoregressive dependencies.

Second situation- the presence of a spatial aggregate - takes place if for some reason there are no statistical data on the indicator or there is reason to believe that its value is determined by the influence of some factors. In this case, multivariate regression analysis can be used, which is an extension of a simple dynamic analysis to a multivariate case.

Third situation- the presence of a spatio-temporal set - takes place when: a) the series of dynamics are insufficient in length to build statistically significant forecasts; b) the analyst intends to take into account in the forecast the influence of factors that differ in economic nature and their dynamics. The initial data are matrices of indicators, each of which represents the values of the same indicators for different periods or for different consecutive dates.

3) Deterministic methods that assume the presence of functional or rigidly determined relationships, when each value of the factor attribute corresponds to a well-defined non-random value of the resultant attribute. As an example, we can cite the dependencies implemented in the framework of the well-known DuPont factor analysis model. Using this model and substituting into it the forecast values of various factors, such as sales proceeds, asset turnover, the degree of financial dependence, and others, it is possible to calculate the forecast value of one of the main performance indicators - the return on equity ratio.

Another very illustrative example is the income statement form, which is a tabular implementation of a rigidly determined factor model that connects the effective attribute (profit) with factors (sales income, cost level, tax rate level, etc.). And at the level of state financial forecasting, the factor model is the relationship between the volume of state revenues and the tax base or interest rates.

Here it is impossible not to mention another group of methods for financial forecasting at the micro level, based on the construction of dynamic simulation models of the enterprise. Such models include data on planned purchases of materials and components, production and sales volumes, cost structure, investment activity of the enterprise, tax environment, etc. The processing of this information within the framework of a single financial model makes it possible to assess the forecast financial condition of the company with a very high degree of accuracy. In reality, such models can only be built using personal computers, which make it possible to quickly perform a huge amount of necessary calculations.

Financial forecasting is a three-stage process, including the analysis of the implementation of the financial forecast, the definition of forecast indicators, the formation of a financial forecast.

At the stage of fulfilling the financial forecast, the degree of fulfillment of the planned parameters for the past period compared with the actual results is determined, reserves for income growth and attraction of other financial resources are identified, directions and ways to increase the efficiency of their use are determined, and the expected fulfillment of the forecast is monitored. In this case, the following analytical methods are used: horizontal-vertical analysis, trend analysis, factor analysis. The stage of determining planned indicators is associated with the calculation of specific values of these indicators that characterize the processes of formation and use of financial resources (income).

At the stage of forming a financial forecast, it is directly compiled in terms of income, expenses and other indicators, after which it is approved by authorized persons. 2 It is at this stage that the optimization of indicators and the financial forecast as a whole is carried out as a document subject to execution and monitoring.

When making forecasts, the balance method is most often used, based on linking financial resources with the financial needs of government bodies and business entities.

Chapter 3. Financial forecasting in the economic system of the Russian Federation and the city of Moscow

3.1 Forecast of the main parameters of the budget system of the Russian Federation and the main characteristics of the federal budget for 2015, 2016 and 2017

Dynamics of the main parameters of the budget system of the Russian Federation for 2015 and the planning period of 2016 and 2017 characterized by some stabilization after a significant decline in 2009 revenues at the level of 35.4 - 34.6% of GDP, a decrease in total expenditure from 38.6% to 37.1% of GDP and a deficit from 3.1% to 2.5 % of GDP (Table 1):

Table 1. Main parameters of the budget system of the Russian Federation billion rubles

Indicators
Income, total
including:
Federal budget


Budgets of state off-budget funds, total
The budget of the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation
including income excluding intergovernmental transfers

including income excluding intergovernmental transfers
Budgets of compulsory health insurance funds
including income excluding intergovernmental transfers
Expenses, total
including:
Federal budget

Consolidated budgets of the subjects of the Russian Federation
including expenses excluding interbudgetary transfers
Budgets of state non-budgetary funds (with territorial and MHIF), total
The budget of the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation
Budget of the Social Insurance Fund
Budgets of compulsory health insurance funds (excluding interbudgetary transfers)
including
Federal Compulsory Medical Insurance Fund (excluding interbudgetary transfers to the Social Insurance Fund and Territorial Compulsory Medical Insurance Funds)
Territorial funds of obligatory medical insurance
Deficit (-) / Surplus (+), total

The share of the federal budget in the revenues of the budget system (before the provision of interbudgetary transfers) will increase from 46.6% in 2013 to 48.8% in 2017, in expenditures it will remain stable at 68.4%.

An increase in the share of budget revenues of state off-budget funds of the Russian Federation in the total revenues of the budget system of the Russian Federation is forecasted to increase from 33.2% in 2013 to 33.5% in 2017. The share of expenditures of state non-budgetary funds of the Russian Federation in the total expenditures of the budget system will decrease from 31.6% in 2013 to 31.2% in 2017.

The share of revenues of the consolidated budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and territorial compulsory health insurance funds in the total revenues of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation (before the provision of interbudgetary transfers) will increase from 30.2% in 2013 to 31.1% in 2017, the share of expenses - from 37 .4% in 2013 to 38.8% in 2017.

The main characteristics of the federal budget for 2015 and for the planning period of 2016 and 2017 are formed on the basis of the forecast of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2015-2017 and correspond to the main provisions of the Budget Message, including the need for a consistent reduction in the size of the federal budget deficit (table 2):

Table 2. Main characteristics of the federal budget for 2010-2014 billion rubles

Indicator	2013 (report)	2014 Law 201-FZ		2017 (project)
			Law 349-FZ	Law 349-FZ
Income, total

Expenses, total

Deficit (-) / Surplus (+)

In 2014-2017, federal budget revenues are projected to decline from 19.9% of GDP in 2014 to 19.6% in 2015 and to 18.1% of GDP by 2017, mainly due to a decrease in oil and gas revenues. Oil and gas revenues are declining from 9.9% of GDP in 2015 to 8.4% of GDP in 2017, while non-oil and gas revenues remain at the level of 9.7% of GDP (Table 3):

Table 3. Dynamics of federal budget revenues billion rubles

Indicator	2014 Law 201-FZ		2017 (project)
		Law 349-FZ	Law 349-FZ
Income, total

including:
Oil and gas revenues

Non-oil and gas revenues

Share in total income, %
including:
Oil and gas revenues
Non-oil and gas revenues
Income growth rate in nominal terms compared to the previous year, %

The decrease in the projected receipt of oil and gas revenues as a percentage of GDP in 2015-2017 is due to a decrease in export prices for natural gas, oil production, exports of goods produced from oil, as well as a lower growth rate of the US dollar compared to GDP growth rates against to the ruble, the volume of exports of oil and natural gas, the volume of production of combustible natural gas.

The volume of non-oil and gas revenues was formed taking into account the implementation of the plan to mobilize budget revenues of the budget system of the Russian Federation, which includes measures to reduce the shadow sector of the economy, the implementation of a number of additional measures to increase federal budget revenues, and improve tax and customs administration.

In 2013 - 2016, an increase in federal budget expenditures is planned (Table 4). In 2015 - 2017, the replenishment of the Reserve Fund will continue (Table 5).

Table 4. Dynamics of federal budget expenditures

Table 5. Forecast of the volume of the reserve fund billion rubles

Indicator
	Law 349-FZ	Law 349-FZ	Draft Budget Strategy

Volume of the Reserve Fund at the beginning of the year

Exchange difference
Replenishment
Volume of the Reserve Fund at the end of the year

In general, the volume of the Reserve Fund is forecast to grow in 2015-2017, which is due to the growth of the forecast volume of additional oil and gas revenues. At the same time, there are risks of shortfalls in non-oil and gas revenues, as well as in attracting borrowed (external and internal) sources of financing the federal budget deficit and funds from the privatization of state property. As a result, the volume of the Reserve Fund may be reduced to the level of the beginning of 2013.

3.2 Financial forecasting of the budget of the city of Moscow for 2015 and the planning period of 2016 and 2017

The main directions of the budget and tax policy for 2015 and the planning period of 2016 and 2017 are focused on providing conditions for further socio-economic development of the city of Moscow in accordance with the strategic goals and objectives defined by the state programs of the city of Moscow.

The main objectives of the budget policy for 2015 and the medium term, as in previous years, are:

- ensuring the stability and sustainability of the budgetary system of the city of Moscow, including taking into account the increase in the efficiency of the use of financial resources;

- unconditional fulfillment of existing expenditure obligations;

- maintaining the share of budget allocations aimed at the implementation of priority projects for the development of infrastructure in the city of Moscow in the total amount of expenditures;

- improvement of interbudgetary relations with local governments of intracity municipalities in the city of Moscow;

- Ensuring transparency and openness of the budget process.

The main parameters of the budget of the city of Moscow for 2015 and the planning period of 2016 and 2017.

The dynamics of the main parameters of the budget of the city of Moscow for 2015 and the planning period of 2016 and 2017 is presented in table 6.

Table 6. The main parameters of the budget of the city of Moscow for 2015 and the planning period of 2016 and 2017 (billion rubles)

Indicator	Execution

Tax and non-tax revenues, total

Expenses, total
growth rate compared to the previous year, %
including:
conditionally approved expenses
in % of total expenses
deficit, total
The ratio of the deficit (excluding account balances and post-receipts from the sale of shares) to the volume of own income, % of proceeds from the sale of shares) to the volume of own income, %

The main parameters of the budget of the city of Moscow for 2015 and the planned period of 2016 and 2017 are characterized by an increase in revenues in 2015 by 2.0% compared to the budget revenues expected in 2014, in 2016 - by 3.4% compared to the forecasted volume of revenues in 2015 year, in 2017 - by 4.4% to the forecasted volume of income in 2016.

When forming the revenue part of the budget of the city of Moscow in 2015 and the planning period of 2016 and 2017, the following main factors were taken into account:

indicators of the forecast of socio-economic development of the city of Moscow;

provisions of the tax and budget legislation of the Russian Federation;

the actual dynamics of revenues to the budget, emerging in 2014.

The formation of indicators for the expenditure part of the budget for a three-year period is carried out according to state programs (the share of expenditures for which is about 92% of the total budget expenditures).

The total budget deficit of the city of Moscow for 2015 and the planned period of 2016 and 2017 will amount to 146.7 billion rubles in 2015, respectively, in 2016 - 127.8 billion rubles and in 2017 - 112.9 billion rubles .

The budget deficit for 2015 will be 9.9%, for 2016 - 8.3%, for 2017 - 7.0% to own revenues.

Revenues of the budget of the city of Moscow for 2015 and the planned period of 2016 and 2017

Forecast of revenues of the budget of the city of Moscow for 2015 and the planning period of 2016 and 2017 is presented in table 7.

Table 7

The main share (90%) of budget revenues are tax revenues.

Taking into account the forecasted level of inflation, the growth rate of wages and investment activity, the results of the financial and economic activities of organizations in the city of Moscow for 9 months of 2014, as well as the emerging dynamics of current receipts, the average growth rate of tax revenues for 2015 is projected to be about 3.5% of the expected assessment of income in 2014.

The growth in tax revenues for the planned period of 2016 and 2017 will be about 3.7% and 4.7%, respectively.

The forecast estimate of tax and non-tax revenues for 2015 and the planning period of 2016 and 2017 is presented taking into account the indicators of the main administrators of budget revenues.

Conclusion

Based on the research conducted as part of the course work, we made the following theoretical generalizations and practical recommendations:

Financial forecasting - is an activity for the foresight and strategic assessment of the prospects for the development of finance, the volume, composition and structure of financial resources and directions for their use.

When considering the features of building financial forecasts, it is necessary to remember the close connection between financial planning and forecasting. Financial forecasting substantiates qualitatively and quantitatively the most probable scenarios for the development of the future, on the basis of which financial plans are developed for the most adequate response in the future.

When developing financial forecasts, the methods used play an important role. In world practice, the following classification of financial forecasting methods is used: methods of expert assessments, stochastic methods, deterministic methods. The most common method is the combined method, which takes into account all possible (relevant) factors, which means that the predicted scenario is highly accurate.

The dynamics of the main parameters of the budget system of the Russian Federation for 2015 and for the planned period of 2016 and 2017 is characterized by some stabilization after a significant decrease in 2013 revenues at the level of 18% of GDP, a decrease in total expenditures from 1.7% to 1.5% GDP and deficit from 0.7% to 0.6% of GDP.

Bibliography

1. Budget code with comments - M. - "Prospect", 2008. -326s.

2. Barulin S.V. "Finance" - M. - "KNORUS", 2010. -640s.

3. Belozerov S.A., Brodsky S.A., Gorbushina and others. "Finance" M. "Prospect" 2010.-928p.

4. Buryakovsky V.V. Finance of enterprises - textbook - M .: Finance and statistics, 2007. - 485 p.

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Problems and ways of improving financial planning at Russian enterprises in modern economic conditions

Lisyutina Anastasia Sergeevna
REU student G.V. Plekhanov (PF), Russia, Pyatigorsk
Email: [email protected]
Scientific adviser: Baklaeva Natalya Mikhailovna
Art. Lecturer at the Department of Economics and Finance
REU them. G.V. Plekhanov (PF),
Russia, Pyatigorsk

The modern market is dynamic, and Russian organizations have to work in a rapidly changing external environment, often under conditions of uncertainty. At the present stage of development of the Russian economy, a significant tool of financial management is financial planning, which also acts as the most important part of the financial mechanism of an enterprise.

In both small and large enterprises, there is a high need for effective financial planning, but, as a rule, it is available only to enterprises that have significant funds to attract highly qualified specialists who are able to carry out large-scale planned work.

One of the most popular and promising areas for improving financial management today is to improve the quality of the financial planning system at the enterprise.

In connection with the financial crisis that began in 2008, it became clear that Russian enterprises have serious problems in the financial management system.

Most of the Russian enterprises consider the primary negative consequences of the crisis to be a decrease in demand and an increase in production costs, which significantly affects profitability. Also, one of the most important problems is the lack of funding for new projects. These phenomena can have a negative impact on the long-term development of enterprises.

One of the reasons for these phenomena is the lack of timely, accurate and complete information, both about the current financial condition of the enterprise and about the future. In modern conditions of economic instability, it is necessary to predict the future, to predict possible changes in the conditions of enterprises' activities with the help of advanced planning and control.

One of the common forms of financial planning is budgeting. But at Russian enterprises, budgeting is mostly conditional and most often consists in monitoring individual indicators, for example, accounts payable and receivable. As a rule, enterprises do not draw up a forecast balance, limiting themselves only to various cash budget options, income and expense budgets, and so on.

A significant contribution to the process of disorganization of financial management is also made by the Russian accounting system and the taxation mechanism associated with it, in connection with which detailed tax planning does not at all guarantee the absence of claims from the tax authorities.

In enterprise management, the most important role is played by the competent setting of management accounting, the data of which are the basis for the financial management of the enterprise. Internal information about the activities of the enterprise allows you to determine the need to attract additional resources, and also allows you to predict financial flows.

Information about the financial condition of the enterprise is confidential, so it is necessary to ensure the distribution of user rights to protect against unauthorized access to this information. The effectiveness of financial management of the enterprise depends on the timely assessment of the final result. It is not enough to analyze only the profitability of the enterprise. It is necessary to receive timely information on the main parameters that can show an objective picture of the financial condition of the enterprise. This will identify available sources of funds, assess the possible pace of development of the enterprise. The key factor here is the volume and quality of the information used.

Another difficulty that arises in the process of financial planning at Russian enterprises is the competent setting of goals by the heads of enterprises. As a rule, profit is most often chosen as the main goal. As a result, indicators of liquidity, balance of financial flows are not taken into account, which, in turn, cannot lead to the formation of an integral system of financial goals, which makes it difficult to achieve them.

A rather difficult task is the automation of accounting. As a rule, the principles of accounting at enterprises are different and are based on the specifics of the activities of a particular enterprise. When using a full-fledged financial planning system in an enterprise, it is necessary to ensure the passage of information through all accounting systems in order to provide operational data on the execution of previously adopted financial plans. At the same time, it is necessary to provide a sufficient level of detail of information.

The problem is that most of the software development is designed to solve individual problems of financial planning. This can complicate the implementation of financial planning in the enterprise.

In our opinion, in modern conditions of financial management in enterprises, it is necessary to apply a new system of financial planning. In the first place should be information technology, which will allow the financial manager to consider different options for financial plans in electronic form and, if necessary, adjust the financial plan with automatic recalculation of interacting items, which will significantly save time.

In view of the foregoing, it seems possible for us to single out the following, topical problems of financial planning at Russian enterprises and suggest ways to improve them:

1. Reality of formed financial plans. Real and effective management of the company is possible only if there is a rational plan for a long period of time, in modern conditions, at least for a year. As a rule, unrealistic plans are generated by unreasonable planned sales data, underestimated repayment terms for receivables, etc. As a result, the plans drawn up are not an effective financial management tool.

As a way to solve this problem, we can propose to increase the reliability of data by involving managers and qualified managers of various levels in the financial planning process.

2. Efficiency in drawing up financial plans. Even a well-written plan is ineffective if it is not presented by the given deadline. The reasons for the low efficiency are: the lack of a clear system for the preparation and transfer of planned information from department to department, the lack and unreliability of information, etc.

As a way to solve this problem, we can suggest linking the strategy with the operational level of management, that is, presenting the goals of the enterprise in digital terms and monitoring their achievement.

3. Detachment of long-term financial plans from short-term ones. It is characterized by the absence of a sequence of operations passing through all departments.

In the process of solving this problem, it can be proposed to coordinate the work of all departments of the organization and all areas of activity among themselves.

4. Feasibility of financial plans. This refers to the feasibility of plans in terms of providing the enterprise with the necessary material and financial resources, as well as the absence of a shortage of funds. As Russian practice shows, financial plans are often adopted with a deficit of up to 30-60%.

The way to solve this problem is to use various methods of economic forecasting and modeling situations, which will allow us to assess the impact of various factors on the activities of the enterprise and respond to them in a timely manner.

5. Automation of management accounting. The main problem is the development of the concept of the management accounting system and its adequate perception by all stakeholders in the enterprise.

The solution to this problem is to attract qualified specialists to develop and implement a unified management accounting system for a particular enterprise.

Further study by economists of the essence of financial planning, analysis of its features and problems within the Russian economy, as well as the development of ways to improve it should help improve the quality of financial management at Russian enterprises and, in general, contribute to the growth of the country's economy.

List of sources used

Afonasova M.A., Business planning: Proc. Allowance./ M.A. Afonasova. Tomsk: El Content, 2012. - 108 p.
Baklaeva N.M., Financial management: Textbook.- Pyatigorsk, RIA-KMV, 2016.- 260 p.
Davydenko E.A., Problems of organizing financial planning and control at domestic enterprises // Financial management.- 2014.- №2.- P. 32-39.

Goals and objectives of financial planning and forecasting at the enterprise

At present, the issues of financial planning are of particular relevance. Financial planning is one of the main functions of financial management in an enterprise. Financial planning can be defined as the ability to anticipate the goals of the enterprise, the results of its activities and the resources necessary to achieve certain goals. Financial planning covers the most important aspects of the financial and economic activities of the enterprise, provides the necessary preliminary control over the formation and use of material, labor and financial resources, creates conditions for strengthening the financial condition of the enterprise.

Transformations in the economy and the construction of market relations, the instability of the economic situation today allow us to fully appreciate the importance and necessity of financial planning for the activities of any business entity. It is uncertainty that increases the risk of entrepreneurial activity, and therefore the need for planning and forecasting in market conditions.

The main goal of financial planning in an enterprise is to substantiate the enterprise development strategy from the standpoint of an economic compromise between profitability, liquidity and risk, to determine the required amount of financial resources to implement this strategy.

Financial planning as a management function covers the entire range of activities for the development of plan targets and their implementation. Financial planning at the enterprise solves the following tasks:

specifies business prospects in the form of a system of quantitative and qualitative indicators of development;
reveals reserves for increasing the income of the enterprise and ways to mobilize them;
provides the reproduction process with the necessary sources of financing;
determines the most efficient use of financial resources;
ensures the observance of the interests of investors, creditors, the state;
controls the financial condition of the enterprise.

The basis of financial planning in the enterprise is the preparation of financial forecasts. Financial forecasting is a long-term development of changes in the financial condition of the object as a whole and its parts. Forecasting focuses on the most likely events and outcomes. Forecasting, unlike planning, does not set the task of implementing the developed forecasts directly in practice. The composition of forecast indicators can differ significantly.

The current planning system has a number of shortcomings. The planning process at the enterprise in modern conditions is very time-consuming and not predictable enough. In the conditions of instability of the Russian economy, it is impossible to reliably conduct a scenario analysis and analysis of the financial stability of an enterprise to changing business conditions. In the practice of most Russian enterprises, there is no management accounting, the division of costs into fixed and variable, which does not allow using the marginal profit indicator in the planning process, assessing the effect of operating leverage, conducting a break-even analysis, and determining the financial safety margin. The planning process traditionally begins with production, not with the sale of products. When planning the volume of sales, the costly pricing mechanism prevails. The price is formed based on the full cost and the rate of return, not taking into account market prices. This leads to the creation of non-competitive products, and, consequently, to biased planned indicators of sales volumes, which will obviously differ from the actual results of the enterprise. The planning process is delayed in time, which makes it unsuitable for making operational management decisions. Financial, accounting and planning services operate separately, which does not allow creating a single mechanism for managing the financial resources and cash flows of the enterprise.

Building an effective financial management system is the main goal of the financial policy pursued by the enterprise. The development of the financial policy of the enterprise should be subordinated to both the strategic and tactical goals of the enterprise.

The strategic objectives of the financial policy are:

maximizing the profit of the enterprise;
optimization of the structure of funding sources;
ensuring financial stability;
increasing investment attractiveness.

The solution of short-term and current problems requires the development of accounting, tax and credit policies of the enterprise, the policy of managing working capital, accounts payable and receivable, managing the costs of the enterprise, including the choice of depreciation policy. The combination of the interests of the development of the enterprise, the availability of a sufficient level of funds for these purposes and the preservation of the solvency of the enterprise is possible only if the strategic and tactical tasks are coordinated, which are formalized in the process of financial planning at the enterprise. The financial plan formulates the financial goals and criteria for evaluating the activities of the enterprise, gives the rationale for the chosen strategy and shows how to achieve the goals. Depending on the goals, strategic, short-term and operational types of planning can be distinguished.

Strategic financial planning determines the most important indicators, proportions and rates of reproduction. In a broad sense, it can be called growth planning, enterprise development planning. It is long-term in nature and is associated with the adoption of fundamental financial and investment decisions. Financial plans should be closely linked to the company's business plans. Financial forecasts only acquire practical value when the production and marketing decisions that are required to bring the forecast to life have been worked out. In world practice, the financial plan is the most important element of business plans.

Ongoing financial planning is necessary to achieve specific goals. This type of planning usually covers the short and medium term and is a concretization and detailing of long-term plans. With its help, the process of distribution and use of financial resources necessary to achieve strategic goals is carried out.

Operational financial planning is the management of cash flows in order to maintain a stable solvency of the enterprise. Operational planning makes it possible to track the state of working capital of the enterprise, to maneuver the sources of financing.

The financial part of the business plan is developed in the form of forecast financial documents, which are designed to summarize the materials of the previous sections and present them in value terms.

The following documents should be prepared in this section:

1) income forecast;

2) cash flow forecast;

3) balance forecast.

Forecasts and plans can be made to any level of detail. Drawing up a set of these documents is one of the most widely used approaches in the practice of financial forecasting. A financial forecast is a calculation of the future level of a financial variable: the amount of cash, the amount of funds or their sources.

As you know, the activity of the enterprise is usually divided into three main functional areas:

1) current;

2) investment;

3) financial.

Under the current activity of the enterprise is meant the activity of the organization, pursuing the extraction of profit as the main goal or not having the extraction of profit as such a goal in accordance with the subject and objectives of the activity, i.e. production of industrial products, construction works, agriculture, trade, public catering, procurement of agricultural products, leasing property and other similar activities.

Under the investment activity of the enterprise is understood the activity of the organization associated with the capital investments of the organization in connection with the acquisition of land, buildings and other real estate, equipment, intangible assets, as well as their sale; with the implementation of long-term financial investments in other organizations, the issuance of bonds and other long-term securities, etc.

The financial activity of an enterprise means the activities of an organization related to the implementation of short-term financial investments, the issuance of bonds and other short-term securities, the disposal of previously acquired shares, bonds, etc. for up to 12 months.

The preparation of forecast financial documents usually begins with the preparation of an income forecast (forecast profit and loss statement). It is in this document that the current activities of the enterprise are reflected (Table 7.1).

Table 7.1

Forecast of financial results of the current activity of the enterprise

Profit and loss forecast reflects the production activities of the enterprise. Therefore, it is also called a forecast of the results of production activities. Sometimes the process of producing and marketing products or services is called operations. The forecast of financial results will only be reliable when there is reliable information about the growth prospects of the main production indicators, the dynamics of which was substantiated in other sections of the business plan.

Profit and loss forecasting should begin with a sales forecast. Information on sales volume can be obtained from the section of the business plan on the planned sales volume.

This forecast is intended to give an idea of the market share that the company is going to win. Building a sales forecast begins with an analysis of products or goods, services, existing consumers. In doing so, the following questions must be answered.

What was the level of sales last year?
How will relations with buyers of products for its payment develop?
Is it possible to predict the same level of product sales as in the reporting period?

At the same time, it is very important to analyze the base period, since it is it that provides answers to a number of questions and allows you to predict the impact of individual factors on sales in the upcoming period. Thus, it is possible to assess how volume indicators will be affected by changes in product quality, price level, demand level, and therefore, more accurately determine the amount of proceeds from product sales based on forecast sales volumes for the planned year and forecast prices, as well as predict expected changes in terms of costs and future profits of the enterprise. The most important task of each business entity is to obtain more profit at the lowest cost by observing a strict regime of savings in spending money and using it most efficiently. The cost of production and sales of products is one of the most important qualitative indicators of the activities of enterprises. The composition of costs for the production and sale of products is regulated by the Regulations on the composition of costs for the production and sale of products (works, services) and on the procedure for the formation of financial results taken into account when taxing profits, approved by Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of August 5, 1992 No. 552 with subsequent changes and additions.

In the presented calculation of profits and losses, not all elements of the costs of the enterprise are reflected in the procedure for making payments. Many of the cost elements shown in the income statement have no effect on the entity's payments. So, for example, materials used in the production process could be purchased and paid for many months before these costs are reflected in the profit and loss calculation. At the same time, the opposite situation may also occur, when materials are used in the production process, are taken into account in the profit and loss forecast, but are not paid. Cost elements such as rent, utility bills, interest on loans, etc., occur gradually over the course of the year and are therefore shown in the income statement as equal amounts. In reality, such payments are made on a quarterly, semi-annual or annual basis, and therefore the data for the months in which they are actually made may be much higher. For these and other reasons, a business making a profit does not necessarily mean that cash has increased, and an increase in cash does not mean that the business is making a profit. Therefore, it is necessary to plan and control both parameters. There can often be big differences between cash and profit. You can plan cash flow by making a cash flow forecast (cash flow plan). The construction of this document is based on the cashflow analysis method (cash flow, or cash flow).

When forecasting cash flows, it is necessary to take into account all possible sources of cash receipts, as well as directions of cash outflows. The forecast is developed by periods in the following sequence:

1) forecast of cash receipts;

2) cash outflow forecast;

3) calculation of net cash flow (surplus or shortage);

4) determination of the total need for short-term financing.

All receipts and payments are displayed in the cash flow plan for periods of time corresponding to the actual dates of these payments, taking into account the delay in payment for products or services sold, the delay in payments for the supply of materials and components, the conditions for the sale of products, as well as the conditions for the formation of production stocks.

The forecast of cash receipts involves the calculation of the volume of possible cash receipts. The main source of cash flow is the sale of goods. In practice, most businesses keep track of the average time it takes customers to pay bills, i.e. determines the average turnaround time.

The main element of the cash outflow forecast is the repayment of accounts payable. It is believed that the company pays its bills on time. If accounts payable are not repaid on time, then deferred accounts payable become an additional source of short-term financing.

Calculation of net cash flow is carried out by comparing the projected cash receipts and payments.

Thus, the cash flow forecast (cash flow plan) shows the cash flow and reflects the activity of the enterprise in dynamics from period to period.

The surplus or deficit data shows in which month you can expect cash inflow and which you can not, so these two parameters are extremely important. In other words, they reflect how the business brings in money (fast or slow). The closing balance of a bank account monthly shows the state of liquidity. A negative figure not only means that the company will need additional financial resources, but also shows the amount necessary for this, which can be obtained through the use of various financial methods.

There are several parameters that appear in the earnings forecast and are absent in the cash flow forecast, and vice versa. The earnings forecast does not contain data on capital payments, subsidies, VAT, and the cash flow forecast does not contain information on depreciation. Depreciation deductions belong to the category of calculation costs, which are calculated in accordance with established depreciation rates and are included in the process of calculating profits as expenses. In reality, the accrued amount of depreciation deductions is not paid anywhere and remains on the company's account, replenishing the balance of liquid funds. Therefore, there is no item “Depreciation charges” in the cash flow forecast. Thus, depreciation charges play a special and very important role in the system of accounting and planning of the enterprise, being an internal source of financing. They are a factor stimulating investment activity. The greater the residual value of the assets of the enterprise and the higher the depreciation rate, the lower the taxable profit and, accordingly, the greater the net cash flow from the production activities of the enterprise.

To check the correctness of the forecast of profit and cash flow, it is advisable to develop a forecast balance. For this purpose, use the balance drawn up on the last reporting date or at the end of the financial year. This method of financial forecasting in the literature is called the method of formal financial documents. This method is based on the direct proportion of almost all variable costs and most of the current assets and current liabilities on the volume of sales, so this method is sometimes called percentage-of-sales forecasting. In accordance with this method, the enterprise's need for assets is calculated in order to increase the volume of sales of products and the profit of the enterprise. This calculation is based on the condition that the assets of the enterprise increase in direct proportion to the growth in sales, and therefore, for the growth of assets, the enterprise needs additional sources of financing.

The task of the forecast balance will be the calculation of the structure of funding sources, since the difference between the asset and the liability of the forecast balance will need to be covered by additional sources of external financing.

The process of compiling profit and balance forecasts ends, as a rule, with a choice of ways to attract additional financial resources and an analysis of the consequences of such a choice. The choice of funding sources is also a balancing act. The compilation of these documents does not give a complete picture of the financial stability of the enterprise. In order to assess the solvency and liquidity of the forecast balance, in addition to the forecast of profit and balance, a cash flow forecast is necessarily compiled.

Data driven financial planning financial forecasting, which is the embodiment of the organization's strategy in the market. Financial forecasting consists in studying the possible future financial condition of an economic entity, depending on the qualitative and quantitative assessments of the dynamics of financial resources and sources of their coverage in the long term, depending on changes in external and internal environment factors. An important point in the implementation of forecasting is the recognition of the fact of the stability of changes in the performance of the company from one reporting period to another.

The objects of financial forecasting are:

– profit and loss statement indicators;

– cash flows;

- indicators of the balance sheet.

The result of long-term planning is thus the development of three main financial forecast documents: a planned profit and loss statement; planned cash flow statement; balance sheet plan.

For preparation of forecast financial documents it is important to correctly define volume of future sales (volume of products sold). This is necessary for the organization of the production process, the effective distribution of funds, control over stocks. Among other things, the sales forecast gives an idea of the market share of the company, which it intends to win in the future. The sales forecast helps to determine the impact of production volume, selling price, inflation on the organization's cash flows.

As a rule, sales forecasts are made for 3 years. Forecasting sales volumes begins with an analysis of current trends over a number of years, the reasons for certain changes. The next step in forecasting is to assess the prospects for further development of the enterprise's business activity from the standpoint of the formed portfolio of orders for the structure of products and its changes, the sales market, competitiveness and financial capabilities of the enterprise.

Based on the sales forecast data, the required amount of material and labor resources is calculated, and other component production costs are also determined. Based on the data obtained, a predictive gains and losses report, which allows you to determine the volume of production and sales of products in order to ensure their break-even, set the size of the desired profit and increase the flexibility of financial plans based on the analysis of the sensitivity of critical ratios (taking into account various factors - price, sales dynamics, the ratio of shares of fixed and variable costs).

Further developed cash flow forecast plan. The need for its compilation is determined by the fact that many of the costs shown when deciphering the profit and loss forecast are not reflected in the procedure for making payments. The cash flow forecast takes into account cash inflow (receipts and payments), outflows (costs and expenses) and net cash flow (surplus or deficit). In fact, it reflects the movement of cash flows from current investment and financial activities.

When planning long-term investments and sources of their financing, future cash flows are considered from the perspective of the time value of money, based on the use of discounting methods to obtain commensurate results.

With the help of a cash flow forecast, you can evaluate how much of the latter you need to invest in the economic activities of the organization, the synchronism of the receipt and expenditure of funds, check future liquidity

Forecast balance of assets and liabilities (in the form of a balance sheet) at the end of the planning period reflects all changes in assets and liabilities as a result of planned activities and shows the state of property and finances of an economic entity. The purpose of developing a balance sheet forecast is to determine the necessary increase in certain types of assets, ensuring their internal balance, as well as the formation of an optimal capital structure that would ensure sufficient financial stability of the organization in the future.

Unlike the income statement forecast, the balance sheet forecast reflects a fixed, static picture of the company's financial balance. There are several ways to make a balance sheet forecast. The most commonly used are the following:

a) a method based on the proportional dependence of indicators on sales volume;

b) methods using mathematical apparatus;

c) specialized methods.

The first method consists in the assumption that balance sheet items that are interdependent on the volume of sales (stocks, costs, fixed assets, receivables, etc.) change in proportion to its change. This method is also called the percentage of sales method.

Among the methods using the mathematical apparatus, the simple linear regression method, the curvilinear regression method, and the multiple regression method are widely used.

Specialized methods include methods based on the development of separate predictive models for each variable. For example, receivables are evaluated according to the principle of optimizing payment discipline, and the forecast for the value of fixed assets is based on the investment budget, etc.

It is obvious that entrepreneurship is an activity related to the investment of funds and the generation of income. Funds are invested today, and income will be extracted tomorrow. To assess the possible amount of income and the effectiveness of investments, it is necessary to determine not only the sequence of actions and calculate their expected result, but also the future state of the enterprise and the external environment, including the conditions for marketing products, the behavior of competitors. possible structure of assets and sources of their financing, etc. And without these estimates, the calculations of the effectiveness of investment funds will hardly meet the minimum requirements for reliability. Determining the future state of the enterprise and its environment based on current trends is forecasting. Whether we realize it or not. but when making any planned or unscheduled decisions. assessment of their possible consequences is a mandatory management action. And it is better that this action be carried out systematically and correctly as much as the available information allows. The assessment of the consequences of decisions and actions for the enterprise, taking into account the prevailing trends in the external environment and the state of the enterprise, or forecasting differs from the planning of these actions and decisions only in that when planning, we are primarily guided by the goal to be realized, that is, based on the goal, we plan the sequence actions and the resources required for their implementation. When forecasting, the result or the possible degree of achievement of goals is the probable consequences of the decisions taken or planned. In this sense, forecasting is a necessary component of planning and management. And the success of planning and. therefore, the management of the enterprise's activities will be completely determined by the quality of predictive assessments of the consequences of decisions made.

The main goals of forecasting

Forecasting the results of the enterprise and its financial condition is carried out in order to:

assessment of economic and financial prospects and the estimated financial condition of the enterprise for the planned period, depending on the main possible options for its production and marketing activities and its financing,
formation on this basis of reasonable conclusions and recommendations regarding the choice of a rational strategy and tactics of actions of the top management of the enterprise.

Among the strategic and tactical decisions may be the production and sales program of the enterprise for the planned period, the planned structure of assets, including current assets, the concept of financing the assets and activities of the enterprise for the planned period, the possibility of implementing one or another investment project, etc. That is, any decision on the use of financial resources and the consequences of the implementation of this decision for the financial condition of the enterprise can be subjected to a predictive assessment.

Taking into account the extremely unstable financial condition of a significant part of Russian enterprises. one of the tasks of financial forecasting may be to assess the possibility. the main conditions and terms of the normalization of the state of the enterprise. that is, the possibilities and conditions for its financial recovery. In this sense, financial forecasting is a necessary element of anti-crisis management.

Financial positioning in the enterprise management system

Forecasting, as noted above. is a necessary component of management and one of the main conditions (according to R. Braley and S. Myers - Principles of corporate finance) for effective planning, and this determines its importance in the enterprise management system. Any decision must be preceded by an analysis of the current situation and a forecast of the possible consequences of its adoption or non-acceptance.

In order to make the procedures of analysis and forecasting concrete, to exclude abstract assumptions like “If only ...” and to bring the decision-making process within the boundaries of the accepted strategic priorities, it seems appropriate to determine the normal parameters of the enterprise’s activity, that is, the main indicators of its work, within each planning (forecast) period considered to be the norm. In this case, the processes of analysis and forecasting will have the main content of comparing the actual (projected) values of the parameters of the enterprise with normal ones, and the planning process will have the development of measures to bring the real state of the enterprise to normal.

Forecasting methods

The financial condition of an enterprise can be quite correctly described using three classical models: the balance of income and expenses, the balance of assets and liabilities, and the balance of receipts and payments. The same models allow you to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of the enterprise. Therefore, the methodological basis for forecasting the financial condition and performance of enterprises should be these three balance sheets. The balance of income and expenses, which describes the results of the enterprise's activities for the period, the balance of assets and liabilities, which creates the financial image of the enterprise and characterizes the structure of its assets and liabilities, and the balance of receipts and payments, which represents the movement of means of payment between the enterprise and its counterparties and gives a complete picture of the dynamics collection of receivables and financing of all operations of the enterprise for the period, together form the financial model of the enterprise. Therefore, forecasting the financial condition of the enterprise and the results of its activities is the process of creating options for the financial model of the enterprise. taking into account any possible decisions on the formation of a production and marketing program, on the implementation of investment projects, on the acquisition of materials and raw materials, on determining the timing of the provision of commercial loans to consumers, on the formation of a wage fund, on the purchase of three brooms, etc. etc.

The process of forming a financial model of an enterprise (and predicting its state) has the following sequence. The first is the balance of income and expenses. The predicted (planned) results of the enterprise's activities for the period and the initial state of assets and liabilities are the basis for designing the balance sheet of assets and liabilities. The content of the two previous balances allows you to calculate (precisely calculate!) the flow of receipts and payments for the period.

Since the formation of three balance sheets is an absolutely formalized procedure, the rules of which are determined by accounting standards, and the relationships between balance sheets are just as formalized, the financial forecasting process can be easily computerized. This allows you to quickly, in real time, make estimates of the consequences of any possible financial decisions.

The order of the procedure for forecasting the financial condition and results of the enterprise includes, firstly. preparation of initial information on the state of the enterprise and preparation of planned decisions, divided into six blocks. The first block is the initial state of the assets and liabilities of the enterprise, financial reporting data. The second block is the planned (projected) sales volume and conditions for the sale of products. This is information from the sales service (marketing). Block three - planned investments and disinvestments in non-current assets. This information is prepared by the financial department on the basis of preliminary (design) planning decisions for the technical development of the enterprise. The fourth block is the stocks of finished products and materials predicted at the end of the period, the balance of work in progress, the amount of receivables and other elements of current assets. Forecast estimates should be made by the financial department after consultation with the relevant departments of the enterprise. The fifth block - decisions on changing the authorized capital and paying dividends. Block six - design solutions for financing the activities of the enterprise for the forecast period, including obtaining and repaying long-term and short-term loans, changes in the amount of commercial accounts payable, balances of wage arrears and payments to the budget and extra-budgetary funds. In addition, for modeling, it is necessary to use a computerized tax calculation unit or enter information on the amount of payments calculated by other methods to be paid to the budget and extra-budgetary funds during the forecast period. The second step is to structure the source information in a certain way, that is, to enter it in the appropriate formats (tables). Further, on the basis of this structured information, a financial model of the enterprise and forecast balances of income and expenses, assets and liabilities, receipts and payments are created. The resulting balances are the basis for making a decision.

Forecasting period, forecast options

The forecasting period can be fundamentally any: from a month to fifty years. His choice is determined. First, the goals of forecasting. that is, the nature of the decisions. to be taken using predictive estimates, and secondly, the reliability of the initial information. Obviously, it is pointless to make forecast calculations when the error of some data, for example, sales volume. exceeds 15 - 20%. Such a forecast makes little sense, since decisions, the consequences of which have a probability of implementation of + 20%, can be made without laborious forecasting calculations. In the current conditions of Russia, forecasting calculations can give a completely correct result when choosing a forecasting period from several days to 2–2.5 years. This choice is due to what. on the one hand, to assess the immediate prospects, a short-term forecast is needed; on the other hand, to rationalize the choice and evaluate the strategy and tactics of action, the top management of the enterprise should evaluate its prospects for at least 2 years. since during this period investments in more or less effective investment projects pay off.

To assess the impact on the financial condition and performance of the enterprise of probable changes in the main factors (sales, costs, etc.), it is advisable to make forecast calculations for several options with different initial data (production program, production cost structure, investments, etc.). In practice, it is customary most often to assess the future in three ways: pessimistic. optimistic and realistic. It allows managers! the enterprise to be ready both for unexpected troubles. and fortunately by chance.

On the procedure for the formation of initial data for forecasting, the main assumptions that are appropriate in carrying out forecast calculations. we plan to describe the calculation technique and methods for interpreting the results in the next articles of this series.