Situational analysis. System and situational analysis

Situational analysis– These are complex developments of SD, which are based on an analysis of a single management situation. Situational analysis allows, based on a more in-depth analysis of situations, establishing trends, patterns and factors that determine their development, to reasonably adopt SD, including strategic ones.

One of the main tasks of situational analysis– establishing not all, but the main factors that have a significant impact on the development of the situation, and discarding those factors that cannot have a significant impact.

Situation - This is a combination of internal and external factors, circumstances, conditions, active and passive forces, requiring the adoption of appropriate strategic and important tactical decisions that determine the activities of the organization, as well as ensuring the prevention of crisis phenomena. It is assumed that the situation develops in accordance with certain patterns (“rules of the game”) under the influence of certain internal mechanisms and events occurring outside the organization;

Direction - this is an area of active activity of the organization in which it is necessary to adopt important SD or crisis situations may arise;

Reference situation – a typical situation characteristic of a given area, which has already arisen before, for which there is information about decisions made, actions and the results of these actions.

Bank of situations – This is systematized information about situations, stored, as a rule, on computer media, equipped with special tools for effective storage, search and actualization (updating) of data.

Expert commission – a group of highly qualified specialists formed to conduct an examination (in particular, “brainstorming”) in the process of situational analysis.

First level experts– highly qualified specialists with professional knowledge in one of the areas or experience in solving problems that are directly related to the object of the situational analysis.

Second level experts– highly qualified specialists capable of analyzing and assessing the situation as a whole;

Technologist – a specialist who has the necessary professional knowledge and experience in organizing and conducting situational analysis.

Analyst – a specialist who has both the necessary professional knowledge and experience in analyzing situations in this area, as well as experience in supporting situational analysis, preparing analytical reports and conclusions.

decision maker – person or body making decisions in the analyzed situation.

Profile problems – the main problems that influence the development and assessment of the situation during situational analysis.

Rating system – includes information about the factors determining the situation, their comparative importance, scales for assessing the values of factors, threshold values, and decisive rules.

Index – a generalized indicator calculated using an assessment system and characterizing the state of the situation.

3.6.2. Stages of situation analysis

The main stages of the situational analysis are presented in Fig. 3.10.

Preparing for a situational analysis begins with a clear definition of the decision situation. As you know, in many cases, the right task is half the success.

At the preparatory stage, experts of the first and second levels are selected - the formation of expert commissions to conduct a situational analysis, taking into account their professional training.

One of the main tasks of this stage is the preparation of information about the situation, internal and external factors, related problems, etc., affecting its development. It is advisable to prepare a meaningful description of the situation, including using keywords, which may be useful in the formation of information flows in the process of conducting situational analysis.

A situational analysis may be preceded by the preparation of the necessary information support, which allows a better understanding of the situation, its strengths and weaknesses, and the main factors determining its development. Sometimes it seems advisable to prepare special analytical reports for specialists participating in the situational analysis and members of the expert commission.

Providing methodological, informational support, as well as the content of computer support lies with the analytical group, which should include both technologists for organizing and conducting situational analysis, and analysts - specialists who work professionally in the field to which the object of the situational analysis belongs.

One of the main tasks of the analytical group is to clearly define and set the task of situational analysis for specialists invited to participate in its implementation. At the same time, the goals of analyzing the situation, the goals of preparing alternative options and developing recommendations for making strategic and tactical management decisions must be clearly formulated. Defining goals and setting the task of situational analysis are carried out by the analytical group in the process of joint work with decision-makers.

Fig.3.10. Stages of situation analysis

Information analysis begins with the search for possible analogues. Information about analogues is presented in the form of a certain number of reference situations. If the situation that has arisen is one of the standard ones, then it is known how to act in it. Therefore, preparing and making decisions in such a situation as developing appropriate recommendations does not cause much difficulty.

If the situation that has arisen is such that it seems close to one of the reference ones, then it is necessary to assess how significant the differences are. And in this case, information about the corresponding reference situation and the differences established by the analytical group is transferred to the expert commission to develop a final conclusion.

In the situation bank, along with information about reference situations, information about other situations that have occurred previously can also be stored. If the situation that has arisen is such that there are no close reference situations, then all available information, together with information about previously occurring similar (non-reference) situations, is transferred by the analytical group to the expert commission.

If there is a sufficiently large amount of information at this stage, it is often advisable to conduct a preliminary examination to reject insufficiently meaningful or unreliable information. Based on the analysis carried out, a package of information necessary for situational analysis is formed.

The information analysis stage may end with the preparation of an analytical review for the participants in the collective review about previously made decisions, their implementation and effectiveness.

Situation analysis . If the situation is not a reference situation, then one of the central tasks of this stage is to identify the main factors determining the development of the situation. The most common way to solve this problem is to use expert assessment method, i.e. the work of the expert commission, in particular brainstorming method.

Once the factors have been established, their comparative importance is determined, i.e. the degree of their influence on the development of the situation. It may be possible to provide for the formation of indices - special assessment systems designed to assess the situation. In order to ensure the actual use of the assessment systems formed for conducting situational analysis, it is necessary to determine the scales in which each of the main factors included in the assessment system is supposed to be measured.

After this, you can proceed to the formation of decision rules with the use of which the states of the situation are determined in which the use of certain control actions is necessary.

One of the main tasks of this stage of situational analysis is to conduct an analysis of the key core problems of the situation, including an assessment of:

weaknesses and strengths;

dangers and risks;

prospects for the development of the situation within the framework of the problems under consideration.

The result of such an analysis is a clearer picture of the problems arising in connection with the current situation.

The task of the situation analysis stage is considered completed if, as a result of its implementation, the decision maker receives a clear, sufficiently complete understanding of the situation necessary for making important management decisions.

In the best case scenario, the analytics team can see a path to achieve the organization's goals with the least amount of resources.

The stage of situation analysis is completed by assessing the stability of the situation to possible changes in the external and internal environment, to the most likely changes in indicators characterizing the dynamics of the development of the situation.

Development of scenarios for possible development of the situation begins with a meaningful description and definition of a list of the most likely scenarios for the development of the situation. To solve this problem can be used brainstorming method.

The most common methods of developing scenarios involve creating a list of the main factors influencing the development of the situation. Using the identified factors, models for the development of the situation are formed.

Various options for changing the values of factors in accordance with the developed models lead to different options for changing the situation - different scenarios for its development. Naturally, those changes in factors that seem most likely to experts will be considered first. Forecast estimates of changes in the main factors are determined by experts. When determining the dynamics of changes in factor values, it can be used method for constructing expert curves. According to this method, experts consistently indicate critical moments in time at which changes in the trends in the development of the situation, jumps in the values of factors, etc. can occur. After critical points have been determined, experts determine the expected values of factors at critical points and the expected trends in changes in these values. Thus, we are developing alternative scenarios for the development of the situation.

The result of the experts’ work at this stage is the development of an expert forecast of changes in factors and indices characterizing the situation, presented in the form of the most likely scenarios for the development of the situation.

The stage ends with an assessment of the expected stability of the situation for the developed alternative scenarios for its development.

Assessment of the situation . An assessment of the development of the situation is given both by first-level experts in terms of core problems that arise during the expected development of the situation, and by second-level experts in terms of the development of the situation as a whole from the point of view of achieving the goals facing the organization.

In parallel with the assessment of the most likely scenarios for the development of the situation at this stage, it is also expected that experts of the first and second levels will generate proposals to develop alternative options for strategic and tactical decisions in the analyzed situation.

It is advisable to conduct examinations on the comparative assessment of alternative options for strategic and tactical decisions for the analyzed situation as a whole and the selection of the most preferred ones by second-level experts.

The main goal of conducting examinations at this stage is to generate, for further consideration and analysis, justified SDs to achieve the goals of the organization.

Data processing and assessment of examination results . Developing scenarios for possible developments of the situation requires appropriate data processing, including mathematical processing. In particular, mandatory processing of data received from experts is required during collective examination, when it is necessary to determine the resulting expert opinion.

Data processing is required when determining factors, establishing dependencies and indices that characterize the situation. Mathematical data processing is also required when developing forecasts, when extrapolation dependencies and expert curves are constructed, the most likely trends in changes in the values of the main factors are determined, etc.

After the preliminary data from the examinations during the situational analysis are received, their analysis is necessary. The obtained expert information is analyzed from the point of view of the consistency of opinions of the experts who participated in the examination. The degree of consistency of expert assessments makes it possible to judge the reliability of the examination result, as well as to obtain a meaningful interpretation of the main points of view of experts if there are discrepancies between them. Contradictions in expert assessments should be identified and, if possible, eliminated.

It is also possible to increase the reliability of recommendations and proposals obtained as a result of the examination by comparing alternative options for strategic and tactical decisions obtained using various data processing methods. If the results of data processing using different methods are close enough, this increases confidence in the reliability of the result obtained. If the discrepancies are significant, then it makes sense to establish the cause of the discrepancies.

The results obtained during data processing, as well as the results of evaluating the examinations performed, are used in preparing materials for decision-makers.

The result of the experts’ work at this stage of the situational analysis is an assessment of the alternative SD options obtained during the situational analysis, the identification of recommendations and proposals for decision-makers based on the results of the work performed.

Preparation of analytical materials based on the results of situational analysis . The main task of this stage is to prepare analytical materials containing recommendations in various areas:

making strategic and tactical decisions in the analyzed situation;

mechanisms for their implementation;

control over the execution of decisions;

supporting the implementation of decisions made;

analysis of results, including assessment of the effectiveness of decisions made and their implementation.

All work on organizing and conducting situational analysis at all stages, its methodological and information support is carried out by analytical and working groups, respectively, with the tasks assigned to them and the powers delegated to them.

Effective use of situational analysis to solve management problems that are of particular importance to the organization is impossible today without appropriate computer support.

Introduction
1.1 Situation analysis as a management function
1.2 Methodology for conducting situational analysis4

2. SWOT analysis of Barter LLC (Meridian Hotel)

Conclusion
List of sources used

Introduction

One of the extremely effective methods of self-analysis and self-monitoring of the results of an enterprise’s economic activities and management of marketing activities is situational analysis. Its goal is to show top management and heads of individual departments a kind of “snapshot” of the situation in which the enterprise is at the time of the analysis. A well-conducted situational analysis allows the management of even a thriving enterprise to get rid of illusions and take a sober look at the true state of affairs in the enterprise, to outline new, most promising directions for the development of core business activities, including drawing up a long-term business plan, marketing plan or strategic marketing program.

Marketing (situational) analysis, comprehensively covering all production and economic activities of the enterprise, should ultimately lead to the promotion of new ideas and goals, the development and evaluation of ways to achieve them, the corresponding strategic directions of development and the adoption of management decisions for their implementation. Such an analysis can only be carried out if it is supervised by the general director (director) of an enterprise or joint stock company.

Situational analysis is one of the sources for developing enterprise forecasts, business plans and other sections of long-term plans. In international practice, it is customary to conduct a situational analysis once or twice a year, not only for the purpose of managing marketing activities, but also to control them.

The main subject of situational analysis is the immediate environment of the enterprise, the system in which it operates: these are consumers, competitors, traders, sales intermediaries, and suppliers.

The purpose of the course work is to conduct a situational analysis of the enterprise.

Research objectives:

Consider the theoretical aspects of conducting situational analysis;

Conduct a situational analysis using the example of Barter LLC (Meridian Hotel)

The following documents were used as information sources for writing this work: balance sheets, literature on the financial and economic activities of the enterprise, publications of economic magazines and newspapers.

1. Theoretical aspects of the concept of situational analysis

1.1 Situation analysis as a management function

Most people plan their activities for the day (month, year, etc.), then organize the resources that will be needed to carry out the plan. This day-to-day work affects a range of management functions. Those. management must be viewed as a cyclical process consisting of specific types of management work, called management functions.

At present, historically established inconsistencies remain in the definition of functions, in their differentiation and integration.

It is possible to formulate some initial positions. The functions reveal the essence and content of management. Hence, the management function is a function of the management process.

Management is a function of biological, social, technical, organizational systems, which ensures the preservation of their structure and supports a certain mode of activity.

Management function is a direction or type of management activity, characterized by a separate set of tasks and carried out by special techniques and methods.

Planning is the development of a plan that defines what needs to be achieved and with what levers, consistent with time and space.

Accounting is a consistent reflection of the facts of the economic activities of a particular organization.

Control is one of the leading management functions. Control is the process of measuring (comparing) the actual results achieved with the planned ones.

Situational analysis -- These are complex technologies for preparing, making and implementing management decisions, which are based on the analysis of a single management situation.

Situational analysis comes from specific situations, problems that arise in the real activities of the organization, by which a management decision must be made. Situational analysis technologies allow us to go beyond making management decisions in a specific management situation. They allow us to base ourselves on a more in-depth analysis of situations, establish trends, patterns and factors that determine their development, and make more informed long-term management decisions, up to and including adjusting the strategic goals of the organization.

The situational approach attempts to link specific techniques and concepts to specific situations in order to achieve organizational goals most effectively. Everyday affairs and current problems are the objects of situational analysis. The situational approach assumes that there is much in common in the activities of organizations, especially related ones. At the same time, each situation is individual, and management decisions must be made in the specific situation that has developed for the management object at the moment.

In situational analysis, universal technologies, methods, techniques, cat O ry are suitable not only for one individual decision-making situation, but also for e situation class logo.

However, only a specially conducted analysis of exactly the situation that has developed was for the control object precisely at the time of decision making, allows the professional e neger choose one or another, sometimes the only, specific management technology, method, technique, solution, etc. And leading to the goal.

The situational approach can be represented as consisting of the following main components, which in a more compact form can be formulated as follows:

- study of modern technologies of situational analysis

- foreseeing the consequences of decisions made

- interpretation of the situation, highlighting the most important factors (variables) and assessing the possible consequences of their change

- making an effective decision.

When conducting situational analysis, specially developed technologies are used, based largely on the use of modern methods of teaching, analysis and processing of expert information.

A central role in the situational approach is the identification of situational variables. They are the key to understanding the situation, and therefore to making effective management decisions.

Therefore, one of the main problems solved by situational analysis is to establish the factors that determine the development of the situation. If we want to highlight all the factors that, to one degree or another, influence the development of the situation, then this will be a task, on the one hand, unrealistic, and on the other, meaningless. It will be unrealistic because the development of the situation is influenced, perhaps insignificantly, by many factors.

The task of establishing all the factors influencing the development of the situation is meaningless because any complete analysis of the situation, brought to its final logical point, becomes practically impossible. It is impossible to trace all connections and interactions of factors. The complexity of the analysis increases sharply. Due to the reasons listed above, the quality of the result does not increase, but decreases.

Therefore, one of the main tasks of situational analysis is to identify not all, but rather the main factors that have a significant impact on the development of the situation, and discard those factors that cannot have a significant impact.

Today, several technologies are known and used to establish the main influencing factors as a result of the analysis of a particular situation, because: situational management scaling case

· "Brain attack"

· Two-round survey

· Multidimensional scaling

· Factor analysis

· Case method

The brainstorming method is one of the main ones in organizing and conducting examinations. A significant role in conducting a brainstorming session belongs to the leader heading the meeting of the expert commission.

In real production activities, this may be a meeting convened by the manager to discuss a particular problem that has arisen and establish the main factors determining its further development in order to develop and make management decisions.

A “brainstorming” in a situational analysis usually consists of two rounds. In the first round, ideas are generated, and in the second round, the identified ideas are discussed, evaluated and a collective point of view is developed.

First round is carried out in such a way that each of those present can freely express their opinion on what determines the development of the situation, from his point of view, according to what laws its development is taking place, what control influences on the part of the organization’s management can be effective and lead to the goal. In this round, the leader must support any of the opinions expressed, giving the person expressing it the opportunity to more fully present his point of view and develop it. At the same time, an atmosphere of goodwill should be maintained, freeing the person expressing his point of view from unnecessary constraint.

Any expressed point of view or idea must be discussed and cannot be declared false, even if it seems to the leader of the meeting almost obviously unpromising.

If, during the “brainstorming” process in the first round, the manager supports only promising ideas, from his point of view, then this often brings obviously less results.

We emphasize that the task of the first round of brainstorming in establishing the factors determining the development of the situation is to obtain the most complete picture possible about the factors that can influence the development of the situation.

In the second round Of the factors identified in the first round, only the most significant ones should be retained. In order to do this reasonably and choose among them the truly decisive ones, it is necessary to critically evaluate them.

The so-called trial method can be used here. The specialists participating in the second stage are divided into supporters and opponents of the expressed opinion.

Supporters try to provide the necessary evidence in favor of the expressed point of view, and opponents try to refute them. The manager, based on the results of the discussion, makes the final decision on including one or another factor among those that truly determine the development of the situation.

If during the ongoing situational analysis it turns out that some factors were unjustifiably classified as fundamental, they will be excluded. If additional significant factors are identified, they may also be included among the main ones.

Two-round survey. In the first round of a two-round survey, each of the specialists invited by the manager to participate in the work to establish the most important factors determining the development of the situation fills out a specially designed questionnaire in which he indicates such factors and provides a rationale for classifying them as the most important. The factors included in the questionnaire are ranked by the specialist according to the degree of their influence on the development of the situation.

In the second round, cross-review of the questionnaires completed in the first round is carried out. This means that the questionnaires completed by one specialist are evaluated by others and either agree or disagree with their assessments. Disagreement with the opinion of a specialist must be given reasons.

Specialists assessing the specialist’s opinion also rank the factors presented in the questionnaire.

The results of the second round are processed by an analytical group, which, based on the data presented in the questionnaires, forms a list of factors that, in the opinion of experts, determine the development of the situation.

In this case, the results of ranking the factors indicated by each of the specialists, as well as the specialists who assessed his opinion, are taken into account.

The analytical group also determines the resulting ranking of factors identified by experts.

All information received from specialists, after being processed by the analytical group, is sent to the manager to make a final decision on the factors determining the development of the situation.

Two-round brainstorming and two-round questioning are among the universal methods of situational analysis and can be used not only to establish the factors determining the development of the situation, but also to solve other problems of situational analysis.

Factor analysis. Factor analysis is based on the assumption that, based on statistical data, an analytical relationship can be obtained that reflects the degree of influence of factors and changes in their values on planned or actual indicators characterizing the situation.

Factor analysis solves the problem of determining:

- factors necessary to identify all significant dependencies affecting the development of the situation;

- coefficients (sometimes called loads), characterizing the influence of each of the identified factors on indicators reflecting the state and development of the situation.

The use of the factor analysis method allows, based on the processing of statistical information, to classify factors into essential and insignificant, basic and non-essential, internal and external.

The influence coefficients of each of the selected factors, calculated on the basis of data processing, make it possible, on the one hand, to determine the ranking of factors by importance, i.e., to arrange the factors in descending order of their importance, and on the other hand, to obtain a formula for calculating the expected values of indicators characterizing the situation , with one change or another in the values of factors.

The results obtained using factor analysis make it possible to more reasonably evaluate the expected changes in the situation with certain expected changes in factors due to emerging trends or management influences, the feasibility of which is established in the process of using situation analysis technologies.

Multidimensional scaling. An excess of information about the factors determining the development of the situation often leads to a decrease in the quality of the situational analysis. The main task of the multidimensional scaling method is precisely to reduce the number of factors that need to be taken into account when analyzing and assessing expected changes in the situation as a result of certain management decisions. Refusal of management influence on the part of the organization's management is also one of the possible options for management decisions.

Reducing the number of factors that must be taken into account in a situational analysis is sometimes called dimensionality reduction.

An equally important task solved by the multidimensional scaling method, along with dimension reduction, is also the meaningful interpretation of the resulting set of factors.

The initial information for multidimensional scaling can be specialists’ assessments of the proximity and differences between various options for the development of the situation. Different assessments of proximity and difference are determined by different values of indicators characterizing the state of the situation. The starting point is also a preliminary set of particular criteria, although their number, as a rule, exceeds the number of truly important criteria.

Let us note the important point that when using the multidimensional scaling method, the factors that actually determine the development of the situation may be unknown. They are established during the application of the method.

Based on mathematical processing of the initial information, those factors that really influence the development of the situation are established.

The multidimensional scaling method received its name because, as a result of transforming the initial information, the main indicators characterizing the change in the situation are assessed by a relatively small number of factors, measured in a relatively small number of scales.

Each factor thus identified receives a meaningful interpretation from the specialists involved in the situational analysis.

The use of the multidimensional scaling method helps to establish the most significant factors determining the development of situations.

Methods that can also be used in situational analysis to establish the factors that determine the development of a situation and the degree of their influence on its development include methods for the formation of evaluation systems for multi-criteria assessment, methods for the formation of generalized criteria, qualimetric methods, etc.

Another important point after establishing the factors determining the development of the situation is the study of the mechanisms that determine this development, the interaction of factors, the influence of sometimes opposing forces, competition, etc.

Modeling the situation can help to better understand the situation and the dynamics of its development. A well-developed model allows you to more fully analyze the situation, understand the driving forces of its development, and the role of certain factors. The first example of modeling a situation is to obtain dependencies of indicators characterizing the development of the situation when the values of the most significant factors change.

So, for example, if one of the main indicators characterizing the economic activity of an enterprise is profit (P), and the main factors influencing the profit received by the enterprise are:

- competitiveness of manufactured products (F k),

- production volume (F p),

- cost of manufactured products (F s),

- current demand for products in sales markets (F SG|)

And the type of dependency is set.

where K k, K p, K s, K sp are coefficients characterizing the comparative weight of the established factors, then we can calculate the expected value of profit for a particular value of the factors on which it depends.

In organizations using modeling, it is possible to develop forecasts for a fairly distant future. The time limits of the forecasting period largely depend on the nature of the organization's activities. But with a stable economy, this can be a fairly reliable forecast for 5 years. The forecast, developed using custom-built models, can include key financial and operational indicators. It allows you to correctly assess the expected development of the situation and make decisions leading to the goal.

If the economy is unstable, then models that can be used to make short-term forecasts for the immediate planning period are more useful.

In organizations that have managed to create adequate and reliable models for analyzing situations, their use allows management to truly manage the development of situations, to consciously choose one direction or another of development, and not just surrender to chance.

The process of developing and making management decisions is quite dynamic; it may largely depend on the direction in which the situation will develop, what the tactics of competitors will be, what demand the products will have in sales markets, what changes the technologies that are used in the organization’s activities are undergoing, what new generations of equipment are needed, etc.

When conducting a situational analysis and making management decisions based on it, it is impossible to describe all the stages in which the situation will develop many management steps in advance.

But it is possible, by planning the activities of an organization based on situation analysis technologies, to foresee in advance the most likely scenarios for the development of a decision-making situation and to prepare the most preferable alternative solutions in each of the possible branches of the development of the situation.

Case method. Step-by-step analysis of situations (case method) is an effective way to analyze management situations. In this case, the proposed situations should be close to the problems that managers have to face in life. The skills obtained as a result of the analysis may be useful in further practical activities.

The analysis consists of four steps:

individual preparation of analysis;

informal discussion by separate groups;

classroom discussion;

summarizing learning results at the end of the lesson.

Based on the above, it follows that the analysis of management organization is a complex interconnected process of studying the structure and content of the management cycle, the organization of management work, information, technical and mathematical support, the composition of bodies and management costs. It allows you to give a complete description of the elements, structural divisions and levels of the management system, assess their condition and justify directions for further development. Depending on the goals and objectives set, the analysis can cover different parts of the control system. Analysis is the link between all management functions and is carried out cyclically.

1.2 Methodology for conducting situational analysis

Conducting a situational analysis, as a rule, is effective only when it is carried out professionally, using modern technologies and specially developed methods.

Situational analysis allows , based on a deeper understanding of the situation and the dynamics of its development, develop and make more informed management decisions, as well as anticipate the possible occurrence of crisis situations and take timely measures to prevent them.

It is especially relevant to conduct a situational analysis when solving complex complex problems, as well as problems that are of particular importance to the organization.

Following the modern understanding of the tasks and capabilities of situational analysis, we provide a description of its main stages that form a single technology. In this case, we will adhere to the following terminology.

Situation-- this is a combination of internal and external factors, circumstances, conditions, active and passive forces, requiring the adoption of appropriate strategic and important tactical decisions that determine the activities of the organization, as well as ensuring the prevention of crisis phenomena.

It is assumed that the situation develops in accordance with certain patterns (“rules of the game”) under the influence of certain internal mechanisms and events occurring outside the organization.

Reference situation -- a typical situation characteristic of a given area, which has already arisen before, for which there is information about decisions made, actions and the results of these actions.

Bank of situations -- This is systematized information about situations, stored, as a rule, on computer media, equipped with special tools for effective storage, search and actualization (updating) of data.

Expert commission -- a group of highly qualified specialists formed to conduct expertise (in particular, “brainstorming”) in the process of situational analysis.

Analyst -- a specialist who has both the necessary professional knowledge and experience in analyzing situations in this area, as well as experience in supporting situational analysis, preparing analytical reports and conclusions.

Decision maker -- person or body making decisions in the analyzed situation.

Index-- a generalized indicator calculated using an assessment system and characterizing the state of the situation.

Here is a description of the main stages of situational analysis.

Stage 1. Preparing for situational analysis

It is advisable to begin preparing for a situational analysis with a clear definition of the decision-making situation. As you know, in many cases, the right task is half the success. And success in our case is, first of all, a correctly understood situation and an effective management decision.

It is necessary that all specialists invited to participate in the situation analysis clearly and equally understand the goals of the analysis and the tasks facing them.

Sometimes it seems advisable to prepare special analytical reports for specialists participating in the situational analysis, members of the expert commission formed to assess the situation and develop alternative options for management actions.

Modern technologies for conducting situational analysis, which should provide a fairly complete and in-depth analysis of the situation and the development of informed management decisions, require appropriate methodological, organizational, informational, and computer support.

To ensure that situational analysis is carried out in accordance with modern technologies, it is necessary to have a working group that must provide organizational support for situational analysis procedures and its technical side.

Providing the methodological, informational and content part of computer support lies with the analytical group, which should include both technologists for organizing and conducting situational analysis, and analysts - specialists who work professionally in the field to which the object of the situational analysis belongs.

One of the main tasks of the analytical group is to clearly define and set the task of situational analysis for specialists invited to participate in its implementation. The goals of analyzing the situation, the goals of preparing alternative options and developing recommendations for making strategic and tactical management decisions by decision makers must be clearly formulated.

Defining goals and setting the task of situational analysis are carried out by the analytical group in the process of joint work with decision-makers.

At the stage of preparation for conducting a situational analysis, the analytical group determines the profile specializations of level 1 experts necessary to assess the situation in those areas of the situational analysis that were determined when establishing the goals of the analysis.

The requirements for level 2 experts are also determined.

At the preparatory stage, the selection of experts of the 1st and 2nd levels is carried out - the formation of expert commissions to conduct a situational analysis, taking into account their professional training.

One of the main tasks of this stage is also the preparation of information about the situation, internal and external factors, related problems, etc., affecting its development.

It is advisable to prepare a meaningful description of the situation, including using keywords, which may be useful in the formation of information flows in the process of conducting situational analysis.

Stage 2. Information analysis

The analysis of the received information about the decision-making situation begins with the search for possible analogues. Information about analogues is presented in the form of a certain number (usually several) reference situations. The reference situation is characterized by the fact that quite a lot is known about it, in particular what decisions were made, what are the results of the decisions made and what decisions lead to the goal.

If the situation that has arisen is one of the standard ones, then it is known how to act in it. Therefore, preparing and making decisions in such a situation as developing appropriate recommendations does not cause much difficulty. Information about a similar reference situation is transmitted to the expert commission to prepare a final conclusion.

If the situation that arises is such that it seems close to one of the reference situations, then it is necessary to assess how significant the differences are.

Sometimes differences in the situation, which at first glance are not very significant, can lead to opposite results with the same actions. And in this case, information about the corresponding reference situation is transferred to the expert commission to develop a final conclusion. In this case, the differences established by the analytical group must be indicated.

In the bank of situations, along with the reference ones, information about other situations that have occurred previously can also be stored.

If the situation that has arisen is such that there are no close reference situations, then all available information about the situation, together with information about previously occurring similar (non-reference) situations, is transferred by the analytical group to the expert commission.

If there is a sufficiently large amount of information about the situation at this stage, it is often advisable to conduct a preliminary examination to reject insufficiently meaningful or unreliable information.

In this case, it may also be advisable to assess the degree of duplication of information and classify the information received.

Based on the analysis, a package of information about the situation necessary for situational analysis is generated.

The information analysis stage may end with the preparation of an analytical review of information about the situation for participants in the collective examination to develop strategic and tactical decisions, including information about:

Previously made strategic and tactical decisions in the analyzed situation and similar ones;

Mechanisms for their implementation;

Monitoring the implementation of decisions;

Supporting the progress of their implementation;

The results of assessing the effectiveness of decisions made;

The results of assessing the effectiveness of their implementation.

This information should be taken into account at all stages of developing strategic and tactical decisions or preparing recommendations.

Stage 3. Situation analysis

If the situation is not a reference situation, then one of the central tasks of this stage is to identify the main factors determining the development of the situation. The most common way to solve this problem is to use the method of expert assessments, i.e., the work of an expert commission. To solve this problem, in particular, the “brainstorming” method can be used as one of the most effective ways for an expert commission to work in establishing the main factors determining the development of the situation.

To establish the main factors determining the development of the situation, other methods discussed earlier can be used.

Once the factors have been established, their comparative significance is determined, i.e., the degree of their influence on the development of the situation.

It may be possible to provide for the formation of indices - special assessment systems designed to assess the state of the situation from the point of view of decision-makers and strategic goals for the development of the situation.

In order to ensure the actual use of the assessment systems formed for conducting situational analysis, it is necessary to determine the scales in which each of the main factors included in the assessment system is supposed to be measured.

Once the main factors determining the development of the situation, their comparative significance and the scales in which each factor is supposed to be measured have been established, we can proceed to the formation of decisive rules for assessing the situation.

An example of the application of a decisive rule can be the use of the above dependence, which characterizes the economic activity of an enterprise with the help of such main factors influencing the profit received by the enterprise as the competitiveness of manufactured products, production volume, cost of manufactured products and current demand for products in sales markets.

If the profit is within the planned ranges, then there is no need for additional control actions.

If the profit turns out to be below the acceptable threshold, then it is necessary to take measures that would contribute to more successful economic activity of the enterprise.

As can be seen from the above example, along with the criterion, which is the dependence characterizing the economic success of the enterprise, the decisive rule must contain a threshold value (threshold values), with the help of which the need to make a particular management decision is determined.

Threshold values in the decision rule correspond to different levels of the situation - from critical (unacceptable) to the most preferable.

A decision rule can have multiple threshold values. Depending on the value of the dependence characterizing the state of the situation and how it relates to the threshold values, the analyzed situation receives one or another assessment, and certain recommendations can be given on the appropriateness of actions that should be taken.

It is with the use of decision rules that the states of the situation are determined in which the use of certain control actions is necessary.

When forming decision rules, indices that characterize the state of the situation can be used.

One of the main tasks of this stage of situational analysis is to conduct an analysis of the key profile problems of the situation, including an assessment of the weaknesses and strengths, dangers and risks, and prospects for the development of the situation within the framework of the problems under consideration.

The result of this analysis is a clearer picture of the problems that arise for the organization in connection with the current situation.

Analysis of the profile problems of the situation, which allows, when making management decisions, to sufficiently fully present the main problems that must be solved by the management of the organization, allows us to move on to the analysis of the situation as a whole.

Carrying out an analysis of the situation as a whole also involves assessing the strengths and weaknesses of the situation as a whole, dangers and risks, and prospects for the development of the situation.

The best result of a situational analysis will be if, based on it, the decision maker or the analytical group can see the path that ensures the achievement of the organization’s goals with the least expenditure of resources.

Stage 4. Development of scenarios for possible development of the situation

The development of scenarios begins with a meaningful description and definition of a list of the most likely scenarios for the development of the situation.

To solve this problem, the brainstorming method can be used. Determining the list of the most likely scenarios for the development of the situation forms the main focus of the analytical work to determine the most likely directions for the development of the situation.

The most common methods of developing scenarios, including those given below, involve the formation of a list of the main factors influencing the development of the situation. Using the identified factors, models for the development of the situation are formed. When forming models of a situation, indices that characterize its state can be used.

Various options for changing the values of factors in accordance with the developed models lead to different options for changing the situation - to different scenarios for its development.

Naturally, first of all, those changes in the values of factors that seem most likely to experts will be considered. Expected changes in the main factors characterizing the development of the situation serve as the basis for developing a forecast.

Forecast estimates of changes in the values of the main factors are determined by experts. When determining the dynamics of changes in factor values, the method of constructing expert curves can be used.

According to this method, experts consistently indicate critical points in time at which changes in the trends in the development of the situation, jumps in the values of factors, etc. can occur. After the critical points of change in the values of indicators are determined, the experts determine the expected values of factors at critical points and expected trends changes these values. Thus, alternative scenarios for the development of the situation are developed.

The results obtained should be subjected to additional analysis by experts. Experts, after thoroughly studying the dynamics of the development of the situation, expressing judgments in defense of their proposed scenario for the development of the situation, and on the part of opponents - objections regarding the reality of a particular development option, can make adjustments to the predicted options for the development of the situation.

The developed options for the development of the situation must be subjected to careful analysis from the point of view of identifying the main dangers, risks, strengths, and prospects for the development of the situation.

The stage ends with an assessment of the expected stability of the situation for the developed alternative scenarios for its development.

Stage 5. Assessing the situation

After the most likely scenarios for the possible development of the situation have been identified, the main dangers, risks, strengths and prospects have been identified, experts evaluate them from the point of view of the possibility of achieving the goals facing the organization.

An assessment of the development of the situation at this stage is given both by 1st level experts in terms of specialized problems that arise during the expected development of the situation, and by 2nd level experts in terms of the development of the situation as a whole from the point of view of achieving the goals facing the organization.

An assessment of the situation may, depending on the procedure provided, be carried out by experts individually, or perhaps in the process of collective work of an expert commission.

In parallel with the assessment of the most likely scenarios for the development of the situation, at this stage it is also expected to generate proposals for the development of alternative options for tactical solutions on key profile problems of the situation by 1st level experts and 2nd level experts - to develop alternative options for strategic and tactical solutions in the analyzed situation .

Naturally, exactly those proposals should be generated that can ensure the achievement of the goals facing the organization to the maximum extent.

If management decisions made based on the results of a situational analysis are of great importance for the organization, it is advisable to conduct special examinations for a comparative assessment of alternative options for tactical decisions on key profile problems of the situation and the selection of the most preferable ones.

The main goal of conducting examinations at this stage is to generate for further consideration and analysis sound management decisions and control influences to achieve the goals facing the organization.

Stage 6. Data processing and assessment of examination results

Developing scenarios for possible developments of the situation requires appropriate data processing, including mathematical processing. In particular, mandatory processing of data received from experts is required during collective examination, when it is necessary to determine the resulting expert opinion.

Let us list the most important cases when data processing is necessary to determine the results of collective expert assessments in situational analysis. It is necessary when:

Structuring information,

Formation of expert commissions,

Rejection and systematization of information,

Formation of an assessment system,

Development of expert forecasts for the development of the situation,

Development of alternative scenarios for the development of the situation,

Generating alternative options for strategic and tactical decisions,

Comparative assessment of alternative options for strategic and tactical decisions.

After preliminary data from the results of examinations during a situational analysis have been received, it is necessary to carry out work on their analysis.

The obtained expert information is analyzed from the point of view of the consistency of the opinions of the experts who participated in the examination. The degree of consistency of expert assessments makes it possible to judge the reliability of the examination result, as well as to obtain a meaningful interpretation of the main points of view of experts if there are discrepancies between them.

When comparatively assessing several alternative options for the possible development of events, several possible alternative options for control actions and solutions with the help of which they can be implemented, contradictions may appear in expert assessments. Such contradictions must be identified and, if possible, eliminated.

In some cases, it turns out to be advisable to additionally check the accuracy of the assessments made by experts. Assessment of the accuracy of expert assessments can be a priori, when it is carried out before the occurrence of the event being assessed, and a posteriori - after the occurrence of the event being assessed.

Thus, data processing when analyzing examination results is necessary for:

Expert agreement scores,

Estimates of the degree of inconsistency of expert assessments,

A priori and a posteriori assessment of the accuracy of expert assessments.

It is also possible to increase the reliability of recommendations and proposals obtained as a result of the examination by comparing the results of a comparative assessment of alternative options for strategic and tactical decisions,

obtained using various data processing methods.

If the results of data processing using different methods are close enough, this increases confidence in the reliability of the result obtained.

If the discrepancies in the results obtained are significant, then it makes sense to establish the cause of the discrepancies.

The results obtained during data processing, as well as the results of the assessment of the examinations carried out, are used in preparing materials for decision-makers on the situational analysis carried out.

Evaluation of the examination results, including data processing when assessing the quality of experts, can also be used to calculate their rating. Based on the experts’ ratings, decisions are made on the subsequent involvement of experts in conducting a situational analysis.

The result of the experts’ work at this stage of the situational analysis is the assessment of alternative management decisions obtained during the situational analysis, the identification of recommendations and proposals for decision-makers based on the results of the work performed.

Stage 7. Preparation of analytical materials based on the results of the situational analysis.

This stage is the final one. It summarizes all the work done. The main task of this stage is to prepare analytical materials containing recommendations for:

Making strategic and tactical decisions in the analyzed situation,

Mechanisms for their implementation,

Monitoring the implementation of decisions,

Supporting the implementation of decisions made,

Analysis of results, including assessment of the effectiveness of decisions made and their implementation.

So, in particular, the tasks solved by the analytical and working groups include:

Development of a system for tracking the occurrence of critical situations requiring situational analysis;

Creation of monitoring for monitored areas of activity;

Selection, adaptation and development of methods for analyzing and systematizing information;

Selection and adaptation of a statistical data analysis module;

Determination and updating of the list of monitored areas of activity;

Definition of reference situations for each tracked activity;

Formation and updating of a bank of situations (both standard and previously analyzed);

Formation and updating of a bank of experts;

Preparation of tools, including mathematical apparatus, to determine factors characterizing the development of the situation and indices for assessing their condition;

Determination and updating of factors characterizing the state of the situation, assessment of their comparative importance, development of indices for assessing the state of the situation;

Selection and adaptation of methods for developing assessment systems;

Selection and adaptation of methods for organizing, conducting and determining the results of a brainstorming session to assess the situation, including:

Schemes for presenting information;

Schemes for achieving stabilization of opinions and stopping brainstorming;

Identification of developed alternatives;

Selection and adaptation of methods for expert forecasting of changes in indicators and indices characterizing the situation;

Selection and adaptation of scenario development methods;

Selection and adaptation of methods for determining the results of collective expert assessments;

Selection and adaptation of methods for assessing the degree of consistency of expert judgments and identifying “coalitions” of like-minded experts;

Selection, adaptation and development of methods for assessing the quality of expert opinions, including assessment of accuracy;

Selection and adaptation of methods for analyzing the sensitivity of the situation.

Effective use of situational analysis to solve management problems that are of particular importance to the organization is impossible today without appropriate computer support.

Carrying out situational analysis at a modern technological level requires the development and use of data banks (situations, scenarios, experts, results of situational analysis of received information) and special automated systems designed to process data and support basic situational analysis procedures.

Such systems include automated systems for supporting situational analysis based on the method of analogies, automated systems for diagnosing situations, processing statistical information, multidimensional scaling, factor analysis, cluster analysis, automated systems for assessing situations, automated expert assessment systems (ASEO) designed for obtaining, processing and analyzing expert information, etc.

If, when developing management decisions in an organization, situational analysis occupies a significant place and is carried out regularly, then it is advisable to create a special organizational structure, the main task of which is to provide and support situational analysis.

In particular, it may be advisable to create a situation analysis center or situation room.

2. SWOT analysis of the Meridian Hotel

SWOT is an acronym for four English words: “Strong”, “Weak”, “Opportunitis”, “Threats”. Those. This method of analysis is needed to identify the strengths and weaknesses of the hotel, its opportunities and commercial threats.

When a SWOT analysis is carried out, the hotel manager is presented with a complete picture of the situation in his establishment: factors that carry commercial risks are identified, positive and negative aspects of the establishment are identified. Such analysis is used not only to assess the competitiveness of the hotel, it is extremely useful for determining the development strategy of the establishment: based on the weights of factors, the manager can easily determine the priorities for the development of the hotel.

So, if the hotel does not specialize in receiving foreign guests, then the factor “knowledge of a foreign language by hotel staff” will have a fairly low weight. Then the director may not pay much attention to this factor, because there are more important tasks. In the same case, when the hotel receives mainly foreign guests, this factor should be given a fairly large weight. Now the director can see that he should urgently start training hotel staff in a foreign language at hotel business courses, because other factors weigh much less.

Barter LLC is the management company of the Meridian Hotel. The Meridian Hotel is located in the most picturesque area of Cape Churkin, away from the bustle of the city and noisy roads. Hotel "Meridian" is a modern, comfortable complex of European level, located in one of the most picturesque areas of Vladivostok.

The hotel windows offer a magnificent view of the business center of the city, the Golden Horn Bay and the bridge.

Not far from the hotel there is the Vladivostok Fishing Port, the Regional Diagnostic Center, many shops and cafes. Address: Vladivostok, st. Ochakovskaya, 5

The Meridian Hotel offers clients 140 rooms of varying degrees of comfort. Meridian Hotel offers rooms of different categories:

standard;

Each room has everything you need for a good rest and stay: comfortable furniture, household appliances, LCD TV with cable TV, telephone with international and long-distance communications, Internet access using WI-FI technology.

Under the very dome of the hotel there is the restaurant "Seven Heavens" - an ideal place for romantic meetings, banquets and celebrations. Restaurant visitors will be able to enjoy not only the exquisite dishes of the chefs, but also magnificent views of the city and the sea.

On the ground floor of the Meridian Hotel there is the Estet Hall beauty salon, one of the best in Vladivostok. Masters are winners and participants of numerous professional competitions, having extensive experience and recognition in their field.

Guests of "Meridian" can also take advantage of the additional services of laundry, sauna, depository, and 24-hour guarded parking. The combination of high quality service and affordable prices is the main advantage, thanks to which many city guests choose the Meridian Hotel.

Stage 1. Preparing for situational analysis

Preparation must begin with a clear definition of the decision-making situation. It is necessary that experts and specialists who are invited to participate in the situational analysis equally and unambiguously understand the goals and objectives of the analysis being carried out.

Before conducting a situational analysis, the necessary information support can be prepared, which allows a better understanding of the situation of making a management decision and the main factors influencing its development. It can be provided in the format of an analytical report and used in assessing the situation and developing alternative versions of management actions.

To carry out a situational analysis, a working group can be created that can provide organizational support. An analytical group can also be created to provide methodological support, formalize the results of situational analysis and prepare analytical reports. One of the main tasks of the analytical group is to clearly set and define tasks for specialists and experts who are invited to participate in its implementation.

When carrying out complex examinations, the analytical group can include first-level experts who assess the situation according to the main vectors of the analysis as a whole, and second-level experts who perform a more detailed assessment on a number of aspects that require a professional assessment.

Stage 2. Information analysis

It begins with a search for possible analogues. Information about analogues may be information about reference situations that arose earlier, since the results of implementing the decisions made in them are already known.

If the situation is one of the standard ones, then it is already known how to act in it. Therefore, preparing and making a decision in this situation does not cause much difficulty. If the emerging situation is adjacent to one of the reference situations, then it is necessary to assess what differences there are and whether they are significant.

If there is a large amount of information about the situation under study, an examination is carried out to eliminate unreliable or insufficiently meaningful information. It is necessary to exclude duplicate information and create a classification of the received information.

The stage may end with the preparation of a reference and analytical review of the situation being analyzed and include the following information:

decisions that were made previously in the analyzed situation and are identical to it;
mechanisms for their implementation;
monitoring the implementation of decisions;
support of the process of their implementation;
results of assessing the degree of effectiveness of decisions made, etc.

All information received is used at further stages of the situational analysis.

Stage 3. Situation analysis

If the situation under study is not one of the reference ones, then the main factors influencing its development are determined. In particular, the brainstorming method can be used for this. Once the factors have been established, the degree of their impact on the development of the situation is determined using specially developed assessment systems.

Once the basic factors for the development of the situation and their weight have been determined, rules for assessing possible options for the development of the situation can be determined. For example, if the expected profit level is within the planned range, then there is no need for additional control actions. Otherwise, it is necessary to take measures for more efficient economic activities of the organization.

One of the main tasks of this stage is to conduct an analysis of the key profile problems of the situation, including an assessment of existing risks and dangers, as well as prospects for the development of the situation.

The result of this stage is a clearer understanding of the problems that the enterprise needs to solve due to the current management situation.

The task of this stage is considered completed if, at the end of it, the manager has sufficiently complete information about the situation to be able to make decisions about important strategic plans and ways to achieve the company’s goals. The stage of situation analysis is completed by assessing the stability of the situation to probabilistic changes in the internal and external environment, as well as assessing the indicators that characterize the dynamics of the development of the situation.

Stage 4. Development of scenarios for possible development of the situation

The brainstorming method is used. First, a list of the most likely development scenarios in the analyzed situation is formed. Scenarios are drawn up based on the main factors that influence its development. Each of the options for changing the values of factors corresponds to a certain option for changing the situation, that is, a scenario for its development.

First of all, changes in the values of those factors that are recognized by experts as the most significant and probable should be considered. Expected changes in the values of the main factors are the basis for developing a plan for the development of the situation, for which, in particular, methods of expert curves can be used.

According to this method, experts identify sequentially critical points in time at which there may be trends in the development of the situation, variations in the values of factors, etc. After critical points of variation in indicators are identified, experts determine the expected values of these factors and trends in changes in these values at certain points.

Thus, alternative scenarios for the development of the situation are developed. The results obtained are subject to additional analysis. After analyzing the dynamics of the situation, experts can make adjustments to the compiled options for its development.

This stage ends with an assessment of the expected stability of the situation when implementing the developed alternative scenarios for its development.

Stage 5. Assessing the situation

An assessment is made of the most likely scenarios for the development of the situation by experts from the point of view of the possibility of achieving the goals that the company faces.

Depending on the prescribed procedure, the assessment can be carried out by experts individually or in the process by a team of an expert commission.

Simultaneously with the assessment of the most likely scenarios for the development of the situation, at this stage it is planned to formulate proposals for possible options for management decisions. The use of the “brainstorming” method is also recommended here, although other methods of organizing and carrying out examinations can be used.

It is advisable to conduct a comparative assessment of possible options for management decisions that can be made in the situation under study.

The main purpose of examinations at this stage is to develop sound management decisions and control actions to achieve the goals set for the management object.

Stage 6. Data processing and assessment of examination results

To generate scenarios for the possible development of the situation, it is necessary to carry out appropriate data processing, including mathematical processing. In particular, when conducting a collective examination, it is mandatory to process the results of the collective opinion of experts:

when structuring information;
systematization and screening of information;
formation of an assessment system;
development of expert development forecasts;
developing possible scenarios for the development of the situation;
developing alternative tactical and strategic solutions;
comparative assessment of possible options for management decisions.

Data processing is necessary when identifying factors and determining dependencies that characterize the situation and trends in its changes.

After preliminary data from the examination results are received, they begin to analyze them. Expert information is considered from the standpoint of consistency of opinions of experts who participated in the examination. The degree of consistency of expert assessments makes it possible to judge the reliability of the examination result, as well as meaningfully interpret the main points of view of experts in case of discrepancies between them.

Data processing in the analysis and evaluation of examination results can be used in conjunction with assessing the consistency of experts, in order to assess the level of inconsistency of expert assessments, as well as a posteriori and a priori assessment of the level of accuracy of expert assessments.

Taking into account the processed data, as well as the results of the examination assessment, report materials are generated for management.

Stage 7. Preparation of analytical materials based on the results of the situational analysis

This stage is the final one. The work completed is summarized. Its main task is to prepare analytical materials that contain a number of recommendations:

on making management decisions in the situation under study;
ways and methods of their implementation;
control over the implementation of decisions;
support of the process of implementation of decisions made;
analysis of results, which includes assessing the level of effectiveness of decisions made and the effectiveness of their implementation.

Tasks of situational analysis

As a rule, situation analysis is very effective when it is carried out using technology and specially developed methods. This analysis allows us to develop and make the most informed management decisions based on a more in-depth analysis of the situation and the dynamics of its development, and also allows us to anticipate the possible emergence of crisis situations and take the necessary measures to prevent them.

The most relevant situational analysis is in the process of solving complex problems that are of particular importance to the organization in strategic planning. The organization and implementation of situational analysis, its information and methodological support can be assigned to specially created analytical and working groups, in accordance with the tasks assigned to them and delegated powers.

These tasks include, in particular:

determination and updating of the list of monitored areas of activity;
creation of monitoring in the analyzed areas of activity;
identification of developed alternatives;
formation and updating of a bank of situations (both standard and previously analyzed);
defining reference situations for each tracked activity;
selection and adaptation of a statistical data analysis module;
selection, adaptation and development of methods for analyzing and systematizing information;
development of a system for tracking the occurrence of critical situations requiring situational analysis;
formation and updating of a bank of experts;
selection and adaptation of methods for developing assessment systems;
selection and adaptation of scenario development methods;
preparation of tools, including mathematical apparatus, to determine factors characterizing the development of the situation and indices for assessing their condition;
selection, adaptation and development of methods for assessing the quality of expert opinions, including assessment of accuracy;
identification and updating of factors characterizing the state of the situation, assessment of their comparative importance, development of indices for assessing the state of the situation;
selection and adaptation of methods for analyzing the sensitivity of the situation;
selection and adaptation of methods for organizing, conducting and determining the results of a brainstorming session to assess the situation.

Effective use of situational analysis to solve management problems that are of particular importance to the enterprise is not possible without appropriate computer software and specialized automated systems that are designed to process information and support the main phases of situational analysis.

Such systems include automated situational analysis support systems that use:

method of analogies,
processing of expert information when determining collective expert assessments
automated situation assessment systems,
automated systems for diagnosing situations,
multidimensional scaling,
cluster analysis,
factor analysis,
processing of statistical information,
etc.

If, when developing management decisions in a company, situational analysis is carried out on a regular basis, then it is necessary to create a special organizational structure that will support and provide situational analysis. For example, it may be necessary to create a situation analysis center or situation room.

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Each company, during its work, encounters different critical circumstances that must be dealt with in order for the business to develop further. It is unlikely that such cases will be completely excluded, because the state economy is unstable, and any company has to win its place in the market by inventing new advantages over other companies. To minimize the costs and expenses of the enterprise, situational analysis is used.

The essence of situational analysis

Situational analysis is an assessment of likely changes in a company’s operation, taking into account the impact of external conditions that are in no way controlled by the organization’s management. It is an extensive study of a company’s performance from the point of view of production and commerce, as well as external factors in a specific time period. This type of analysis allows you to assess changes in the market, describe the results of the company’s activities and develop the right strategy for the future.

Using this method of analysis helps the company quickly respond to market changes, increased competition, price dynamics, decreased product quality or deterioration of other production criteria.

The basis of the method is a specific situation, and not the dynamics of certain factors from outside or inside the enterprise. In other words, this is a set of circumstances currently affecting the company. Using this method, the company’s administration is able to create several strategies, depending on market developments, so that the response to any changes will be adequate, and managing the company in different circumstances will bring positive results.

Situational analysis is carried out both to create new strategic techniques and to improve those that already exist. Such an analysis must be carried out constantly in order to reliably know the level of competitiveness of the company, have an idea of the resources and threats of competitors, and also evaluate all categories of consumers. So, in this way, data on all market entities is analyzed: manufacturers, suppliers, clients, products.

It is on the basis of market research that decisive conditions are identified and a more detailed forecast for the development of the enterprise is compiled. A strategy based on this type of analysis can be built in such a way that all the company’s shortcomings will turn into its advantages.

Analysis tasks and competitor analysis

The task of situational analysis: identify the circle of consumers, characterize them, find out their needs regarding this product, assess the market capacity and speed of development, find out which products and companies are competitors.

Then it is carried out competitor analysis. Its essence lies in identifying the strategy, tactics, prospects, advantages and disadvantages of rival firms. To make the analysis more effective, you need to keep in mind both current and potential competitors and strive to predict as accurately as possible the options for their development and the level of impact on the company in question. The key goal of this method is to identify a future competitive strategy in order to draw up your own correct plan of action in the market.

Situational analysis, like other types of assessing a company’s prospects, requires the presence of different technologies and techniques. These include, for example, the method of expert assessments and the so-called “brainstorming”. Using such techniques, you can develop a non-standard solution to a problem and select the only technology suitable for certain circumstances.

The result of a marketing analysis of situations applied to the entire production process of a company should be the emergence of new ideas and tasks, the creation and evaluation of methods for solving them, the development of strategies and the activities of company managers to implement them. This method can only be applied under the personal control of the general director of the enterprise.

(2 ratings, average: 10,00 out of 5)

The task of situational analysis is to determine the situation in which the company finds itself, i.e. determining the place occupied by the company in the general economic space, the main factors affecting the company, as well as the aggregated characteristics of the company as a whole. Thus, the situational analysis consists of:
from an analysis of strengths and weaknesses in their interaction with threats and opportunities in the external environment (SWOT analysis);
analysis of the strategic position occupied by the company;
analysis of market segments;
competition analysis;
positional analysis.

Situational analysis is the first type of analysis carried out during diagnosis. It determines the starting position (where we are now) for the entire company. This is how the problematic field of corporate governance tasks is formed.

The data obtained during such studies determine the entire course of further diagnostics: the goals and directions of research that need to be carried out first, the depth of research, the procedure for conducting diagnostics, as well as the timing, cost of work and the composition of performers.

The results of the situational analysis are the main input data for developing a company development strategy.

It should be noted that situational analysis does not necessarily have to completely precede other types of analysis carried out during diagnosis. It is advisable to first conduct an S WOT analysis and an analysis of the company’s strategic position.

Analysis of the company's strengths and weaknesses (SWOT analysis). SWOT analysis refers to research aimed at identifying and assessing the strengths and weaknesses of a company, assessing its Opportunity and potential Threats. An opportunity is defined as something that gives a company a chance to do something new: release a new product, win new customers, introduce new technology, redesign business processes, etc. A threat is something that can harm a company and deprive it of its existing advantages: the emergence of new competitors, the emergence of substitute products, etc.

A SWOT analysis can be carried out within any realistically available time: from one or two hours to several days. If in the first case conclusions have to be drawn on the basis of an express survey, then if you have two or three days, it is possible to first study the documents, conduct the necessary interviews, develop a model of the situation and discuss the problems in detail with interested participants. It is advisable to carry out a SWOT analysis using simple graphological tools.

Example. Let's illustrate the use of SWOT analysis with a hypothetical example. There is a company that wants to develop a new product - motor boats for recreational use.
At the first stage of the SWOT analysis, the strengths and weaknesses of the company are listed according to the following scheme:
strengths;
weaknesses;
threats;
favorable opportunities.

Various combinations of strengths with threats and opportunities, and weaknesses with threats and opportunities are then considered. At the same time, at the intersection of rows and columns, one can locate both various strategic activities determined by a specific combination of strengths or weaknesses with threats and opportunities, as well as quantitative assessments of the significance of the interaction of strengths or weaknesses with threats and opportunities.

The second step of the analysis will be a quantitative assessment on a five-point scale of the combination of strengths and weaknesses, threats and opportunities of the external environment.

By summing up the assessments obtained, it is possible to determine the overall significance of the strengths and weaknesses, threats and opportunities of the external environment.

Quantifying strengths and weaknesses allows you to set priorities and allocate resources based on these priorities.

After determining the quantitative characteristics, the problems that arose for each combination of strengths and weaknesses with threats and opportunities should be formulated. Thus, we get the problem field of the company.

Problems formulated in this way can be quantified using expert assessments of strengths, weaknesses, threats and opportunities. The quantitative assessment of the problem is the sum of expert assessments of combinations of strengths and weaknesses with threats and opportunities. The significance of each problem for the company is determined by the value of the assessment, and accordingly the problems are ranked by degree of importance.

Analysis of the company's strategic position. The analysis of the strategic position (strategic analysis, strategic portfolio analysis, strategic set analysis) of a company means the identification of SZH, their relationship, environment and other important characteristics.

In modern conditions, even a fairly small and simple enterprise carries out its production and economic activities in various segments of the economic space. Such segments, as noted above, are called strategic management zones. In other words, SZH is a segment of the company’s environment to which it has access or plans to obtain such access. The totality of current SZHs form the company’s strategic portfolio. The allocation of resources across various SZHs, the relationship between SZHs and the external environment determine the strategic position of the company.

Identification of SZH occurs in the following order. The strategic area is determined by market needs, technology, customer type and geographic area. Prospects for the development of SZH are assessed from the point of view of market growth, profitability rates, instability and key success factors. The defining indicators of agricultural plant development are:
development phase (life cycle phase);
market size;
purchasing power (effective demand);
existing barriers to entry;
buying habits;
composition of competitors;
type and intensity of competition;
main sales channels;
government regulation;
indicators of development of the external (economic, socio-political, technological) environment.

The number of agricultural enterprises can be large (depending on the scale of the company’s activities), but in order to ensure the rationality of strategic decisions, a fairly narrow circle should be selected (no more than 50) by combining management zones with similar parameters or by cutting them off.

After determining the totality of SZH occupied by the company, i.e. strategic portfolio, it is necessary to conduct research on the current state of this agricultural sector, its prospects and directions of development.

Analysis of market segments. An important part of situational (marketing) analysis is the study of the consumer market served by the company and (or) its individual business units (strategic business centers). Clients and consumers of this market have various similar and different characteristics, which should be studied during the situation analysis. Such a process aimed at identifying the structure of consumers and their characteristics, as well as identifying discrete groups of consumers (segments) is called market segmentation.

There are many models for analyzing market segments (segmentation), which are combinations of various segmentation criteria that reflect consumer demand.

Examples of criteria
1. Segmentation of consumers by benefits received from using the product or satisfaction of needs.
2. Segmentation of consumers by lifestyle.
3. Sex and age segmentation.
4. Geographic segmentation.
5. Segmentation by consumer situations (such as a holiday, lunch, business trip, etc.).
6. Segmentation of consumers based on selection rules. There are three choice strategies that consumers generally follow:
rational choice - following strict logic when choosing goods. Usually there are two steps: the first is the definition and evaluation of choice options according to several abstract parameters, the second is obtaining an overall assessment and the actual choice based on the overall assessment;
experiential choice occurs when the benefits sought in a product are determined by imagination and emotion;
choice out of habit.
7. Segmentation by brand loyalty. It is very important for a company to distinguish between different segments of brand loyalty in the market, since the type of loyalty, as well as the size of the segment, determines not only the marketing strategy and tactics, but also the potential significance of the brand.
8. Segmentation of consumers by price sensitivity.
9. Segmentation of clients - legal entities using standard industry classifiers.
10. Segmentation by shopping method. To implement this criterion, it is necessary to identify shopping algorithms for different groups of consumers.

Selecting segmentation criteria requires constant attention. Changing lifestyles, consumer values, and demographic changes cause additional uncertainty and instability. For example, during an economic downturn, consumers may become more price sensitive and choose a lower price over a high quality product. When the downturn ends, they become less price sensitive and return to their previous behavior patterns. This means that segmentation models (sets of segmentation criteria and the sequence of their application) need constant adjustment, leading to the merging of previous segments and the creation of new ones.

Competition analysis. Understanding the current state of the company, the place and the situation in which it is currently located, would be incomplete without studying the surrounding competitive environment.

There are usually five factors that determine a company’s competitive position:
current competitors;
the danger of new competitors emerging;
the danger of the emergence of substitute products;
the consumer's ability to negotiate;
supplier's ability to negotiate deals.

This structure can be simplified to current competitors, potential competitors, and substitute products.

Typically, competitors are evaluated in comparison to the company itself and its products.

Positioning methods and tools are widely used to analyze competitors, both existing and potential, as well as to analyze substitute products and other aspects of competition.

Positional analysis. The purpose of positional analysis (or positioning) is to determine the place occupied by a company, product, or brand in the market in relation to other companies, products, brands, and consumers. Positioning is based on structuring a collection of products or companies based on consumer perceptions or preferences. Objective similarities and differences between products, brands and companies recede into the background, since for companies it is not the actual characteristics of the products that are important, but rather how they are presented in the eyes of consumers.

Example. Two types of drugs may be completely different in terms of their chemical composition or manufacturing technology, but from the point of view of the consumer of these drugs they can be completely identical. Conversely, two completely identical drugs may be perceived very differently by representatives of different market segments.

It is the characteristics related not to the physical, chemical or operational properties of the product, but to a greater extent to the image of the product, that act as the main forces in the structuring of the market.

Positioning is intended to help company management develop answers to the following questions.

Where are we (as our customers and clients perceive it) in relation to customer requests, competitors and other companies, products, brands?
Where should we prefer to go next (if our company has made changes to its marketing strategy) or what response actions should we take to change the marketing strategy of our competitors?

In this case, you can position:
companies, brands, products, individual components or features of products;
both existing trademarks (etc.) and new ones proposed for introduction;
based on subjective perceptions and preferences or based on objective assessments.

Positioning tools include:
1) market structuring (based on an analysis of the actual behavior of buyers, their perceptions and preferences);
2) building a profile (used to compare the positions of two objects - companies, brands, etc.);
3) positioning based on the similarities (differences) of brands;
4) positioning with identification of ideal brands;
5) positioning based on a comparison of subjective and objective assessments;
6) positioning by market segments;
7) positioning based on the useful properties of goods;
8) positioning taking into account market dynamics.

3.6.2. Stages of situation analysis

In situational analysis, universal technologies, methods, techniques, cat O ry are suitable not only for one individual decision-making situation, but also for e situation class logo.

The situational approach can be represented as consisting of the following main components, which in a more compact form can be formulated as follows:

- study of modern technologies of situational analysis

- foreseeing the consequences of decisions made

- interpretation of the situation, highlighting the most important factors (variables) and assessing the possible consequences of their change

- making an effective decision.

When conducting situational analysis, specially developed technologies are used, based largely on the use of modern methods of teaching, analysis and processing of expert information.

A central role in the situational approach is the identification of situational variables. They are the key to understanding the situation, and therefore to making effective management decisions.

Therefore, one of the main tasks of situational analysis is to identify not all, but rather the main factors that have a significant impact on the development of the situation, and discard those factors that cannot have a significant impact.

Today, several technologies are known and used to establish the main influencing factors as a result of the analysis of a particular situation, because: situational management scaling case

· "Brain attack"

· Two-round survey

· Multidimensional scaling

· Factor analysis

· Case method

The brainstorming method is one of the main ones in organizing and conducting examinations. A significant role in conducting a brainstorming session belongs to the leader heading the meeting of the expert commission.

In real production activities, this may be a meeting convened by the manager to discuss a particular problem that has arisen and establish the main factors determining its further development in order to develop and make management decisions.

A “brainstorming” in a situational analysis usually consists of two rounds. In the first round, ideas are generated, and in the second round, the identified ideas are discussed, evaluated and a collective point of view is developed.

Any expressed point of view or idea must be discussed and cannot be declared false, even if it seems to the leader of the meeting almost obviously unpromising.

If, during the “brainstorming” process in the first round, the manager supports only promising ideas, from his point of view, then this often brings obviously less results.

We emphasize that the task of the first round of brainstorming in establishing the factors determining the development of the situation is to obtain the most complete picture possible about the factors that can influence the development of the situation.

In the second round Of the factors identified in the first round, only the most significant ones should be retained. In order to do this reasonably and choose among them the truly decisive ones, it is necessary to critically evaluate them.

The so-called trial method can be used here. The specialists participating in the second stage are divided into supporters and opponents of the expressed opinion.

If during the ongoing situational analysis it turns out that some factors were unjustifiably classified as fundamental, they will be excluded. If additional significant factors are identified, they may also be included among the main ones.

Specialists assessing the specialist’s opinion also rank the factors presented in the questionnaire.

The results of the second round are processed by an analytical group, which, based on the data presented in the questionnaires, forms a list of factors that, in the opinion of experts, determine the development of the situation.

In this case, the results of ranking the factors indicated by each of the specialists, as well as the specialists who assessed his opinion, are taken into account.

The analytical group also determines the resulting ranking of factors identified by experts.

All information received from specialists, after being processed by the analytical group, is sent to the manager to make a final decision on the factors determining the development of the situation.

Two-round brainstorming and two-round questioning are among the universal methods of situational analysis and can be used not only to establish the factors determining the development of the situation, but also to solve other problems of situational analysis.

Factor analysis. Factor analysis is based on the assumption that, based on statistical data, an analytical relationship can be obtained that reflects the degree of influence of factors and changes in their values ​​on planned or actual indicators characterizing the situation.

Factor analysis solves the problem of determining:

- factors necessary to identify all significant dependencies affecting the development of the situation;

- coefficients (sometimes called loads), characterizing the influence of each of the identified factors on indicators reflecting the state and development of the situation.

The use of the factor analysis method allows, based on the processing of statistical information, to classify factors into essential and insignificant, basic and non-essential, internal and external.

Reducing the number of factors that must be taken into account in a situational analysis is sometimes called dimensionality reduction.

An equally important task solved by the multidimensional scaling method, along with dimension reduction, is also the meaningful interpretation of the resulting set of factors.

Let us note the important point that when using the multidimensional scaling method, the factors that actually determine the development of the situation may be unknown. They are established during the application of the method.

Based on mathematical processing of the initial information, those factors that really influence the development of the situation are established.

The multidimensional scaling method received its name because, as a result of transforming the initial information, the main indicators characterizing the change in the situation are assessed by a relatively small number of factors, measured in a relatively small number of scales.

Each factor thus identified receives a meaningful interpretation from the specialists involved in the situational analysis.

The use of the multidimensional scaling method helps to establish the most significant factors determining the development of situations.

Another important point after establishing the factors determining the development of the situation is the study of the mechanisms that determine this development, the interaction of factors, the influence of sometimes opposing forces, competition, etc.

So, for example, if one of the main indicators characterizing the economic activity of an enterprise is profit (P), and the main factors influencing the profit received by the enterprise are:

- competitiveness of manufactured products (F k),

- production volume (F p),

- cost of manufactured products (F s),

- current demand for products in sales markets (F SG|)

And the type of dependency is set.

where K k, K p, K s, K sp are coefficients characterizing the comparative weight of the established factors, then we can calculate the expected value of profit for a particular value of the factors on which it depends.

If the economy is unstable, then models that can be used to make short-term forecasts for the immediate planning period are more useful.

In organizations that have managed to create adequate and reliable models for analyzing situations, their use allows management to truly manage the development of situations, to consciously choose one direction or another of development, and not just surrender to chance.

When conducting a situational analysis and making management decisions based on it, it is impossible to describe all the stages in which the situation will develop many management steps in advance.

The analysis consists of four steps:

individual preparation of analysis;

informal discussion by separate groups;

classroom discussion;

summarizing learning results at the end of the lesson.

Similar documents

Stage 1. Preparing for situational analysis

Stage 2. Information analysis

Stage 3. Situation analysis

Stage 4. Development of scenarios for possible development of the situation

Stage 5. Assessing the situation

Stage 6. Data processing and assessment of examination results

Stage 7. Preparation of analytical materials based on the results of the situational analysis

Tasks of situational analysis

The essence of situational analysis

Analysis tasks and competitor analysis

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Factor analysis. Factor analysis is based on the assumption that, based on statistical data, an analytical relationship can be obtained that reflects the degree of influence of factors and changes in their values on planned or actual indicators characterizing the situation.