From the point of view of the duration of the period to which the developed plan relates, three different levels of planning can be distinguished: strategic, tactical, operational (current). The differences between them are determined by the possibilities of varying various resources, the timing of forecasting results and the characteristics of the economic activity of the enterprise. We are talking about a strategic perspective when, at certain periods of time, it is possible to change all (or almost all) resources and factors of production without loss of performance. The tactical perspective covers periods during which some resources can be varied widely, but other resources only within limited limits. The operational level of planning corresponds to the short term, when the possibilities of regulation exist only for a limited number of factors of production, and even then only within certain limits. Of course, depending on the nature of the business and the size of the company, the specific periods that are considered as a strategic, tactical or operational perspective can vary greatly. For example, for a small trading organization that owns, say, a single store, a strategic perspective will be 1-2 years, since after this time the company can radically change its activity profile, scale (grow into an entire retail chain) or completely leave the market, investing existing resources to another industry.

At the same time, for a large shipbuilding enterprise, whose production cycle can last several years and which requires highly qualified (and highly specialized!) personnel, 1-2 years will only be the current period, while strategic plans will concern periods of 5-10 years. From the point of view of the timing of planning resources involved in the activities of the company, the dynamics of the management process can be imagined in the following diagram (Fig. 9.1). If in the process of strategic planning more attention is paid to financial resources, since they determine the possibilities for acquiring most other resources, then in the operational perspective, mainly material and labor resources are planned.

The forms of organization of planning at different time horizons and the formats of planning documents vary greatly.

Strategic planning is carried out for the long term and implies the formulation of goals, objectives, scale and scope of activity of the enterprise at a qualitative level or in the form of very general quantitative guidelines.

Tactical planning is carried out for the medium term (1-5 years) and determines the resources necessary for the enterprise to enter the chosen strategic path. Usually carried out in the form of business planning.

Operational planning covers the current activities of the enterprise and has a horizon of no more than one year. Carried out in the form of budgeting. Thus, a budget is a document that contains the organization’s planned performance indicators for the near (operational) future.

The place of various levels of planning in the decision-making system at an enterprise is illustrated in Fig. 9.2. It can be noted that all the main elements of the scheme (with the exception of the module for setting goals and the process of their verification) correspond to the functions that form the closed control loop shown in Fig. 2.3. The process of defining goals is key in all planning procedures. It is with this that any planning cycle begins, and it is with the targets that the actual results achieved are compared.

The current, everyday activities of the enterprise do not require the implementation of complex financial schemes, large investments and are generally quite predictable. Long-term planning is carried out under conditions of significant uncertainty regarding the actual characteristics of future activities and is therefore impossible without considering a large number of risks that the enterprise may face in its development. The analysis of possible strategies in such conditions is quite complex, requires the use of statistical methods and is not as detailed as operational or tactical analysis.

The goals that an organization sets for itself for different time horizons can vary greatly, but it should be remembered that errors in planning at any horizon entail failures in the implementation of the other two. Thus, problems with current activities can also negatively affect the strategic prospects of the enterprise, when difficulties with current payments and fulfillment of contractual obligations can drag the enterprise into lengthy legal proceedings and put it on the brink of survival. And an incorrectly chosen strategy will lead to the inability to implement tactical and operational plans, no matter how skillfully they are developed.

The cost of mistakes made when developing plans at different levels is quite high, so it is very important to carry out a deep and comprehensive analysis of the enterprise’s goals and ways to achieve them in advance, as well as their timely revision in the light of the changed conditions of the business environment (we are talking about the processes of verification of goals and forecasts).

Errors in current planning can be corrected and overcome fairly quickly. If the procedures for monitoring and adjusting flexible budgets (variance analysis) are clearly established and carried out regularly, then the situation can be corrected within one to two months, and sometimes faster. Such difficulties are temporary and can only seriously affect the level of wages and bonus payments to employees. For the enterprise itself, mistakes made in developing budgets can lead to insufficient funds to pay creditors. Unless these difficulties are protracted, serious adverse consequences (in the form of lawsuits from creditors, employee strikes, or government penalties) are very rare.

Errors in mid-term, and even more so strategic planning, can be fatal for an enterprise. If the areas of activity provided for in the strategic plan are chosen incorrectly, the company finds itself in a market impasse. If, however, considerable capital investments have already been made to achieve these incorrectly chosen goals, the enterprise may face the threat of bankruptcy. For example, automakers in Europe and America in the 60s of the 20th century directed all their efforts and resources to create more and more powerful and fast cars, but the sharp increase in oil prices that occurred in the first half of the 70s made such cars unattractive for buyers due to high gasoline costs. Japanese automakers suddenly burst into the market with their small, economical cars, and the world's largest concerns, which incorrectly assessed their development strategy for this decade, faced very serious financial difficulties. Perhaps a more careful analysis of the market situation, including in related industries, would allow them to define their strategic goals and medium-term capital investment programs more successfully.

Consideration of strategic and tactical planning procedures is not part of our tasks now, and we will turn to a detailed consideration of the short-term planning (budgeting) system.

Planning object

The object of financial planning is the financial activities of business entities and the state, and the result is the drawing up of financial plans, ranging from estimates of an individual institution to

Financial planning tasks

The main objectives of financial planning are:

1. Providing sources of financing for the main activities of the enterprise (maintaining the level of stock of raw materials, materials);
2. Timely and full fulfillment of obligations to budget funds;
3. Justification for the effective investment of temporarily free funds, maintaining the cash balance at a sufficient level;
4. Identification of reserves for growth of enterprise income;
5. Optimizing the use of profits;
6. Determination of dividend policy;
7. Maintaining the solvency of the enterprise, ensuring its financial stability.

The purpose of financial planning is specified depending on the duration of the planned period, the dynamics of the main financial indicators in retrospect, the results of marketing research, external conditions (ruble exchange rate, level, etc.).

Types of financial planning

Financial planning horizon- this is a period of time within which it is possible to accurately assess the financial indicators of the enterprise development strategy, taking into account the influence of the main environmental factors.

The enterprise development strategy determines the financial planning horizon from 3 to 5 years. In this case, it is necessary to take into account the stability of the economy as a whole, the predictability of political development, sectoral and regional factors of the external environment.

Within the planning horizon, financial plans are divided into:

1. Promising
2. Current
3. Operational

Long-term plan or strategic- is specified in the form of current financial plans drawn up for the year. Main document current Financial planning is the balance of income and expenses.

Operational financial planning- consists of developing a payment calendar that helps maintain the solvency of the enterprise, while attracting short-term borrowed funds to cover the gap in the time of receipts and transfers of funds.

Financial planning methods

Normative

It is based on a system of norms and standards used to calculate a number of financial plan indicators.

The following norms and standards are distinguished:

• Federal
• Regional
• Local
• Group
• Industry
• Domestic

When determining tax payments, an enterprise uses tax rates that are federal, regional and local standards. Depreciation charges can be planned based on both internal standards (specific period of use) and federal standards (approximate period of use). Internal norms and standards are developed by enterprises themselves when rationing working capital, creating a repair fund, etc.

Balance

Aimed at linking planned receipts and use, taking into account balances at the beginning and end of the planning period through balance sheet relations. This method is advisable to use when planning the distribution of profits and the formation of funds.

Calculation and analytical

It is based on an analysis of the dynamics of retrospective data and an expert assessment of the predicted change in the planned financial indicator.

Methods of economic and mathematical modeling

They allow you to establish a quantitatively determined relationship between the planned indicators and the factors that determine them.

Static

Expenses for the previous period are added up and divided by the number of previous periods.

Extrapolation method

Consists in determining financial indicators based on identifying their dynamics.

Auto

Data from the previous year is carried over to the current year. If there is inflation - with the inflation index. This is the most primitive method, used when there is a lack of time.

1.4. STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

If you compare a manager with the captain of a ship, the problem of choosing a path becomes clearer. Where to go? Strategic management provides the tools to answer this question, i.e. strategic planning and management.

1.4.1. Planning pyramid in strategic management

The first and main of the main functions of management (see Chapter 1.2) is the function of forecasting and planning. Let's consider its components in relation to strategic planning.

Strategic planning should not be confused with long-term planning - usually for 10-15 years. The strategic planning horizon depends on the type of work the organization is engaged in. Strategic planning for the nuclear power industry is planning for decades in advance, and for a trading company - for two to three years in advance. The time to which strategic planning relates will come much later than the completion of the work that the organization is currently conducting. Moreover, the boundaries of the strategic planning time frame are blurred.

Company mission. When planning, obviously, one must proceed from what the company is intended for, what its “mission” in the business world is. For example, the mission of the Avion company is to provide safe and profitable air transportation of passengers and cargo." The mission of the company is Moscow State Technical University. N.E. Bauman” - to train undergraduate and graduate students in the traditions of the Russian system of engineering education (in the relevant specialties).

In its most general terms, strategic management is a means of ensuring that a firm fulfills its mission. Goal setting is the most difficult and responsible stage of planning. Formulating a company's mission is the most important decision for its founders and senior managers. Changing the mission actually means closing the previous company and opening a new one in its place, even under the same name. Mission is the core of the company, the most stable part of its body. (Note that the company should be compared with a living organism, and not with a soulless dead machine!)

Strategic goals. The specification of the company's mission is its strategic goals, i.e. constant goals over a long period for which strategic planning is carried out. For Avion, such goals may be:

· expansion of the market segment in transatlantic transportation; improving flight safety;

· increasing the general and professional level of training of personnel (pilots, technicians, flight attendants, managers, etc.);

· creating a favorable social climate in the team;

· maintaining the composition of the air fleet and ground support at a level not lower than that of competitors, etc.

For the company "Moscow State Technical University named after N.E. Bauman" strategic goals may be:

· increasing the high scientific level of the teaching staff (and for this, the development of scientific research at the university at the world level), their mastery of modern teaching technologies, equipped with methodological materials on paper and electronic media;

· organizing the recruitment of well-prepared applicants capable of mastering the specialties taught at the institute at a level that gives graduates the necessary competitiveness in the labor market;

· creation and maintenance of the material and technical base necessary for the implementation of a high-quality educational process;

· ensuring the necessary control over the quality of work of teachers and students, etc.

Obviously, for strategic purposes it is almost impossible to give numerical values ​​​​of the parameters that need to be achieved or the time frame within which this must be done. It would be a simplification to say that the period for achieving the strategic goal is, say, 10 years. It is more correct not to define a period, but to discuss long-term planning for an indefinite period. Some strategic goals, such as achieving superiority over competitors, must be achieved continuously.

Objectives of the company. The next level of specification is the tasks that must be solved to achieve a particular strategic goal. For example, for the Avion company, the tasks may be:

· 99% achievement of aircraft arrival on time;

· creation of a system of annual retraining of pilots and flight attendants;

· annual purchase of at least 3 modern aircraft, etc.

For the company "Moscow State Technical University named after N.E. Bauman" the tasks may be:

· ensuring the presence of at least 20% of professors - doctors of science and 50% of associate professors - candidates of science in the teaching staff;

· ensuring a favorable age composition of teachers (for example, the average age of teachers should not be less than 40 and more than 50 years);

· ensuring regular scientific work of teachers (for example, everyone must publish at least 5 scientific papers within 5 years and speak at at least 3 conferences at the all-Russian and international level);

· in the system of pre-university training, at least 4,000 schoolchildren must study annually in various schools, clubs, and courses;

· departments of the institute must be equipped with computers integrated into an electronic network that provides e-mail within the institute and gives teachers and students direct access to the World Wide Web, etc.

Although some of the listed tasks contain numerical parameters, they are not yet sufficient for specific planning and control, so the next level of planning is fully defined specific tasks, the degree of completion of which can be unambiguously assessed.

Specific tasks. Consider, for example, the above task for the Avion company - achieving 99% of the aircraft arriving on time. First of all, you need to add a due date, for example within 2 years. The task then becomes a specific task that requires further analysis. First of all, for what reasons do planes not arrive on time? Some reasons are obvious - a headwind that delays planes, a crosswind that deviates them from the optimal route calculated in the absence of wind, and a tailwind that delivers them to their destination airport ahead of schedule. To eliminate the influence of wind at the time of aircraft arrival, it is necessary to develop aircraft control algorithms and coordinate them with ground services. You can also ask a counter question - do all flights have to arrive on time? The positive answer is obvious if the destination is a large airport where 1-2 planes come in to land every minute. If 1-2 planes land at a field airfield per week and the flight is not urgent, then, obviously, it makes sense to sacrifice the accuracy of arrival for the sake of, for example, saving fuel or increasing flight safety. It is quite reasonable to adjust a specific task, task, strategic goal or even the mission of the company as a result of careful analysis during planning.

For the company “Moscow State Technical University named after N.E. Bauman”, the task was indicated to have at least 20% professors - doctors of science and 50% associate professors - candidates of science in the teaching staff. To turn this task into a set of specific tasks, it is necessary :

Analyze the current staff composition,

To predict its natural change (as a result of the retirement of older teachers, the transfer of other employees to other jobs, etc.),

Assess the possibilities of improving professional level (defending dissertations) for specific employees, as well as the possibility of attracting new personnel.

After this, it will be possible to plan an active personnel policy and evaluate its results in improving the professional level of personnel. Is the goal achievable at all? And if achievable, then in what time frame? And after all the described analysis, a specific action plan must be approved.

We have discussed the entire planning pyramid - from the top (top mission) through the second layer - strategic goals (usually there are no more than 10 of them) and the third - tasks (dozens of tasks can be aimed at achieving strategic goals, so the total number of tasks of the company can be estimated as 100) to the bottom - specific tasks. To solve each problem, a dozen specific tasks may be needed, so the total number of specific tasks performed in any large company is thousands. The planning technology discussed in Chapter 1.2 allows you to turn thousands of individual specific tasks into a general work plan for the company, balanced in terms of material, personnel and financial costs. This plan is very specific for the near future (say, a year), and moves to increasingly general (non-specific, vague, vague) formulations as it moves into the future.

Arrow "Present - Future". As already noted, the planning process was previously discussed in detail. In the case of strategic management, a feature of this process is its focus on the distant future. We are moving from the particular to the general, which corresponds to the movement from the bustle of the present to the distant planning horizon - the mountain peaks of the future:

specific tasks - objectives - strategic goals -

- mission of the company.

At the same time, as we move from the bottom of the planning pyramid to its top, the questions we answer change as follows:

What exactly needs to be done? - What generally needs to be achieved? – Why are we working?

When moving from the immediate to the distant future, we go through the following stages of planning:

operational planning - business planning –

- strategy development.

Operational planning refers to plans for the near future, primarily related to the implementation of ongoing work under existing contracts (orders). Operational planning is usually short term - somewhere between one day and one year.

“Long-term” refers to the analysis and planning of changes that are not expected to end very soon, say, ten years from now. This is exactly the typical period from idea to release of a new brand of car or aircraft.

In the gap between long-term and short-term planning lies medium-term planning - for 3 - 5 years. And between strategic and operational planning - business planning, which answers the question: “What will we do after completing all existing orders?”

Comparison of strategic and operational management. Strategic planning is the basis of strategic management. In addition to the functions of forecasting and planning, other basic management functions discussed in Chapter 1.2 are included. A comparison of strategic and operational management according to nine criteria is presented in Table 1, taken from the monograph.

Table 1.

Comparison of strategic and operational management

Signs	Strategic management	Operational management
Hierarchical steps	Mainly at senior management level	Includes all levels with a primary focus on middle management
Uncertainty	Significantly higher
Type of problems	Most problems are not structured	Relatively well structured
Time horizon	Focus on long-term as well as medium- and short-term aspects	Focus on short- and medium-term aspects
Required information	Primarily from the external environment	First of all, from the enterprise itself
Plan Alternatives	The range of alternatives is broad in principle.	Spectrum limited
	Concentration on certain important positions	Covers all functional areas and integrates them
Level of detail	Low	Relatively large
Basic controlled quantities	Potential for success (e.g. market share growth)	Profit, profitability, liquidity

Operational management includes, for example, the distribution of profits between dividends and the enterprise development fund. There is a conflict here between the short-term interests of shareholders and the strategic development of the company. It is clear that any investments and expenses for the development and implementation of innovations reduce the current year's profit. But without such expenses, the enterprise is doomed to lose competitiveness in the future.

Managers are quite often co-owners of the enterprise. Why is it beneficial for a shareholder to receive a salary? Because the amount of salary decreases profit, and therefore income tax. Since the same income tax is taken from dividends and from salaries (in percentage terms), and the income tax rate is less than the profit tax rate, “pumping” money into salaries increases the manager’s income (and accordingly reduces contributions to the budget).

Expert methods in strategic management. What will happen in ten years? It is enough to think about this formulation of the question, to analyze how ten years ago we imagined today to understand that there simply cannot be one hundred percent reliable forecasts. Instead of statements with specific numbers, you can only expect qualitative estimates. However, we must make decisions that will have consequences ten, twenty, etc. years. What should I do? It remains to turn to the methods of expert assessments (Chapter 3.4).

1.4.2. Planning horizon problem

in strategic management

Let us continue the discussion begun above about the influence of the choice of planning horizon on the decisions made. Note that in many real situations, the duration of, for example, an investment project is not fully determined or the investor’s planning horizon does not cover the entire duration of the project until the disposal stage. In such cases, it is important to study the influence of the planning horizon on decisions made.

Let's look at a hypothetical example. Suppose I am the owner of a factory. If my planning horizon is 1 month, then I will receive the greatest monetary income by selling the enterprise (including buildings, raw materials, technological equipment, the land on which the enterprise stands - if, of course, I have the right to sell it). If I plan for a year, then I will first incur costs by purchasing raw materials and paying workers, and only then, by selling the products, will I make a profit. If I plan for 10 years, I will make large expenditures, purchasing licenses and new equipment, with the goal of increasing income in future years. When planning for 30 years, it makes sense to invest in the creation and development of your own research center, etc.

Let us emphasize that real investments (in fixed assets - in buildings, equipment, in design developments, etc.), which will pay off in the next years, this year will worsen many financial and economic indicators of the enterprise, reduce its profits, reduce profitability indicators, as a result, shareholders will receive - in a given year - less.

Thus, the popular statement “a firm operates to maximize profits” or “the goal of a firm is to maximize profits” does not have a precise meaning. Over what period should profit be maximized - a month, a year, 10 or 30 years? The decisions made depend on the planning horizon. Realizing this, a number of Western economists refuse to consider firms as tools for making profit, preferring to look at them as quasi-living beings trying to ensure the continuation of their existence and further development. Accordingly, strategic management proceeds from the concepts of “company mission”, “strategic goals” (for example, a strategic goal may look like: “increase the market share controlled by the company”), which cannot be directly expressed in monetary units (for more details, see, For example, ).

Before discussing the direct influence of the planning horizon on the decisions made by the manager, we will consider some optimization models used in decision-making (Chapter 3.2 is devoted to optimization methods).

Characterization of models with discounting. For simplicity of presentation, let time take discrete values. Then the development of the economic situation is described by the sequence where the variables x j lie in some space X, perhaps of a rather complex nature. It should also be noted that the position at the next moment cannot be arbitrary; it is connected with the position at the previous moment. The easiest way is to accept that there is a certain set TO such that the result of economic activity for j The th period is described by the quantity The dependence not only on the initial and final position, but also on the period number is explained by the fact that through the period number there is a connection with the general economic situation. Wanting to maximize the total results of economic activity, we come to the formulation of a standard dynamic programming problem:

Thus, it is necessary to select a plan ( ) that satisfies the above restrictions and on which the functionality reaches its maximum Fm. Naturally, it is assumed that the set of possible transitions TO such that the domain of definition of the functional Fm not empty. Under normal mathematical assumptions, the maximum is achieved.

As is known, problem (1) often arises in many applied economic and econometric fields, in macroeconomics, in logistics (inventory management) (see, for example, the monograph).

Models leading to the following special case of problem (1) are widely proposed, studied and applied:

These are models with discounting (as is known, discount factor). It is natural to try to find out what “internal” properties distinguish problems of type (2) from all problems of type (1). In particular, why is the characteristic of an investment project so popular? NPV (Net Present Value- net present value), related to the characteristics of the discounted type and discussed in detail below (Chapter 2.3).

It is of interest to study and compare plans for possible economic behavior on k steps And . (Naturally, we assume that all pairs of neighboring elements are included in the set TO.) It is natural to carry out comparisons using the functions that describe the results of economic activity and are involved in tasks (1) and (2). Exactly, we will say that the plan X 1 better plan X 2 upon implementation from the moment i, If

We will write X 1 R(i)X 2, if inequality (3) is satisfied, where R(i)- a binary relation on a set of plans that specifies the ordering of plans by the relation “better”.

It is clear that the orderliness of plans for k steps, defined using a binary relation R(i), may depend on i, i.e. the "goodness" of a plan depends on when i it is starting to come true. From the point of view of the real economy, this is quite understandable. For example, action plans that are completely rational for a period of stable development are of no use during a period of hyperinflation. Conversely, operations that are acceptable during a period of hyperinflation will not be effective in a stable environment.

However, as is easy to see, in models with discounting (2) all orderings R(i) match , i = 1,2, …, m-k. It turns out - this is the main theoretical result of this subsection - the converse is also true: if the orderings coincide, then we are dealing with problem (2) - with a problem with discounting, and coincidence is sufficient only if k=1.2. Let us formulate in more detail the assumptions about the stability of the ordering of plans.

(I). Let One of two things is true: either

for everyone or

for everyone

(II). Let one of two things be true: either

for everyone or

for everyone

As was shown in detail for the first time in the work, under certain intramathematical conditions of regularity, the conditions for the stability of the ordering of plans (I) and (II) imply the existence of constants and such that

Since adding a constant does not change the point at which the function reaches its maximum, the last relation means that the stability conditions for the ordering of plans (I) and (II) characterize (in other words, uniquely distinguish) models with discounting among all dynamic programming models.

The mathematical conditions under which the theorem on the characterization of discounting models was proved were gradually weakened throughout the 1970s (see about this in), but these intra-mathematical improvements did not affect the economic side of the matter.

Asymptotically optimal plans. Let's consider model (2) with , i.e. model without discounting

Under natural mathematical assumptions, which we will not dwell on, for each m There is an optimal plan at which the optimized function reaches its maximum. Since the choice of planning horizon cannot be rationally justified, it would be desirable to construct an action plan that is close to optimal for different planning horizons. This means that the goal is to construct an infinite sequence such that its initial segment of length m, those. , gives approximately the same value of the optimized functional as the value for the optimal plan. Let us call an infinite sequence an asymptotically optimal plan.

Let us find out whether it is possible to use the optimal plan directly to construct an asymptotically optimal plan. Let's fix it k and consider the sequence. It is not difficult to construct examples showing that, firstly, the elements in this sequence will change; secondly, they may have no limits. Consequently, optimal plans can behave extremely irregularly, and therefore in such cases they cannot be used to construct asymptotically optimal plans.

Nevertheless, it can be proven (the corresponding economic and mathematical theory is developed in Chapter 5 of the monograph) that asymptotically optimal plans exist, i.e. one can specify infinite sequences such that

Using this approach, the problem of the planning horizon is solved - it is necessary to use asymptotically optimal plans that do not depend on the planning horizon. It is interesting that the optimal trajectory of movement consists of three sections - initial, final and main, and the main section is movement along the highway. A complete analogy with the movement of vehicles: to get somewhere, you must first get onto the highway, drive along a good road as close as possible to the goal, then overcome the final section.

1.4.3. Some decision making methods

in strategic management

Let's look at several widely used practical decision-making tools in strategic management.

Strategic planning information and tools. The starting points for strategic planning are:
- structure of competitors;
- structure of sales markets;
- trends in technical development and fashion evolution;
- structure of supply markets;
- legal, social, technological, economic, environmental and political environment;
- own strengths and weaknesses.

Based on the listed data, in accordance with the mission of the company, long-term goals are selected and the resources needed for this are analyzed. Strategic planning tools include, in addition to the expert assessment method mentioned above, gap analysis, chance and risk analysis (strengths and weaknesses), portfolio analysis, checklist method, scoring method, product life cycle concept, and other methods forecasting, planning and decision making.

When analyzing the “gaps,” three possible scenarios for the company’s development are compared:
- what turnover (profit and other characteristics of the enterprise) can be achieved if nothing changes in the sales process in the future (scenario A);
- what kind of turnover can be achieved if we try, with maximum effort, to penetrate more intensively with the existing product into existing markets (scenario B);
- if in addition (to scenario B) we develop new products and/or new markets (scenario B).

The difference between the results under scenarios B and A is called the operational gap, and between the results under scenarios B and B - the strategic gap. This terminology emphasizes the role of innovation in a firm's strategic plan—developing new products or entering new markets, or both.

Boston Consulting Group Portfolio Matrix. In strategic planning, an analysis of the enterprise portfolio may be useful (Table 2). It must be borne in mind that we are not talking about strategic planning for the entire enterprise, but for its “strategic divisions.” They are distinguished by product-market combinations that:
· homogeneous, i.e. are aimed at a certain fairly homogeneous circle of consumers;
· can act independently of other divisions of the enterprise;
· have a sufficiently large market share to make it profitable to conduct research to develop a specific strategy.

Table 2.

Boston Consulting Group Portfolio Matrix

By entering products (taking into account their share in the company’s turnover) into the appropriate cells of Table 2, you can calculate the share of particularly successful products of type 1 (Stars), which may need further financing to increase and consolidate success. Although the growth in demand for goods of type 2 (Cash Cows) is low, due to their large market share, they can bring good income for a long time in little changing (stagnating) markets. The fate of goods type 3 (Question Mark) is unclear. Are the large financial costs of expanding their market share justified? Products of type 4 (Dogs) “earn” only their living.

Based on the analysis of Table 2, several possible strategies can be analyzed:
- “build”, i.e. convert “question marks” into “stars”;
- “hold”, i.e. "cash cows" must maintain their market shares and strive for growth primarily to support the "stars" and "question marks";
- “harvest”, i.e., without taking into account long-term consequences, skim off the short-term cream (we are talking about the “weak” - “cash cows”, “dogs” and “question marks”);
- “to move out”, i.e. “dogs” and “question marks” are withdrawn from the market (no longer produced) because they bring nothing and are not expected to grow, etc.

When determining goals and strategies for further development, strategic divisions need mutual coordination, but without suppressing their originality (in other words, controlled decentralized leadership must be exercised by the company's management). The management of the company must direct individual divisions to attractive markets, discover and use the synergistic effect of their interaction and rationally allocate resources. Thus, the company’s management should encourage the “cash cows” to transfer part of their income to the “stars.”

In table 2 compares such characteristics of the manufactured product as “growth in demand” and “market share”. It is clear that high growth corresponds to the early stage of the product life cycle, and low growth to the late stage. Typically, a high market share signals a long period of profit, while a low market share signals a short period of profit. Thus, a high market share may be due to weak competition. The market leader may have a cost advantage per product - economies of scale!

List and summary evaluation methods. The checklist method and the scoring method are also widely used and very useful strategic planning tools. The first one is quite simple. A certain number of “success factors” are identified and all projects under consideration are assessed (for example, with the help of a commission of experts) on these factors. For example, Table 3 presents a checklist form for projects that involve organizing the release of certain goods (product-market strategies).

Table 3.

Checklist example

Products
Degree of innovation
Number of possible buyers
Readiness for cooperation in trade
Barriers to entry for new sellers
Supply of raw materials

Please note that the ratings are given qualitatively (measured on an ordinal scale - see below in Chapter 3.4). Any quantitative certainty would be only an illusion with such estimates.

It is advisable to divide factors into “mandatory”, “necessary” and “desirable”. Those. enter the weights of factors expressed in qualitative form. A decision rule might look like this: “Force the planning of those product-market strategies in which all the required factors and at least two of the necessary factors correspond to the rating of “good.”

The checklist method, in which both the assessments of individual factors and the weights of factors and methods of decision-making are qualitative in nature, corresponds to a quantitative counterpart - the summary assessment method.

Of course, it is much easier to operate with numbers than with qualitative estimates. It is not for nothing that mathematicians are usually eager to “digitize” qualitative factors and weights. But at the same time, as we know from measurement theory (see Chapter 3.4 below), subjectivity may be introduced into the final conclusions associated with the choice of the method of “digitizing” qualitative assessments and scales. In connection with the above, pay attention to the discussion of decision-making methods based on the use of expert assessments (Chapter 3.4), where, in particular, recommendations are given for reducing subjectivity in the selection of factor weights in a single summary assessment.

Let's consider a conditional example of calculating and using a single summary assessment. Let the estimates of factors 1 and 2 for products A and B be given in Table 4 (for simplicity of presentation, we omit the methods for obtaining numerical values ​​in Table 4 and do not consider the errors of these values).

To obtain a total estimate, it is necessary to know the weights of the factors. Let factor 1 be assessed by experts as twice as important as factor 2. Since the sum of the weights of the factors should be 1, the weight of factor 1 is 0.67, and that of factor 2 is 0.33.

Table 4.

Total scoring method

Products

The total score for product A is

0.67 x 40% + 0.33 x 50% = 26.8% + 16.5% = 43.3%,

and the total score for product B is equal to

0.67 x 90% + 0.33 x 20% = 60.3% + 6.6% = 66.9%.

However, obtaining summary scores is only a step in the decision-making process. We also need a selection criterion - which products to deal with and which not. The simplest formulation is to specify a boundary. If the total assessment of a product is greater than this limit, then the planning work associated with it continues; if not, it is excluded from consideration as unpromising. If in the case under consideration such a limit is chosen at the level of 55%, then work on product A stops, and work on product B continues.

Note that making a decision based on the boundary somewhat reduces the impact of specific digitization rules. For example, if for product A the scores for factors A and B rise by 10% and reach 50% and 60% respectively, then the total score will be equal to

0.67 x 50% + 0.33 x 60% = 33.5% + 19.8% = 53.3%,

those. the general solution does not change, product A remains among the unpromising ones.

The manager is the main person in long-term planning. If forecasting is a research work, its results can be compared with a spotlight illuminating the main features of the future, then planning is a particular type of decision-making. For strategic planning and management, not only those methods of preparation and decision-making discussed above in this chapter, but also the entire arsenal of modern decision-making theory can be used.

However, all these simple or sophisticated computer techniques are only a help for the manager. It is he who is responsible for the fate of the company, and it is on his knowledge of the matter, on his intuition that he must rely when making decisions in strategic management.

Literature

1. Karminsky A.M., Olenev N.I., Primak A.G., Falko S.G. Controlling in business. Methodological and practical foundations for building controlling in organizations. - M.: Finance and Statistics, 1998. - 256 p.
2. Management / Ed. Zh.V. Prokofieva. - M.: Knowledge, 2000. - 288 p.
3. Orlov A.I. Sustainability in socio-economic models. - M.: Nauka, 1979. -296 p.
4. Orlov A. Sur la stabilite" dans les modeles economiques discrets et les modeles de gestion des stocks. // Publications Econometriques. 1977. Vol. X. F. 2. Pp. 63-81.
5. Shmalen G. Fundamentals and problems of enterprise economics. - M.: Finance and Statistics, 1996. - 512 p.
6. Khan D. Planning and control: the concept of controlling / Transl. with him. - M.: Finance and Statistics, 1997. - 800 p.
7. Manilovsky R.G. Business plan. - M.: Finance and Statistics, 1998. - 160 p.
8. Business planning: Methods. Organization. Modern practice. - M.: Finance and Statistics, 1997. - 368 p.

Security questions

1. Explain the planning pyramid in strategic management.
2. Compare strategic and operational management.
3. How do discounting models stand out among all dynamic programming models?
4. Why is it justified to use an asymptotically optimal plan?
5. Explain the content and use of the Boston Consulting Group Portfolio Matrix.
6. What is the difference between the checklist and summative assessment methods?

Topics of reports and abstracts

1. Describe the planning pyramid for any company you know.
2. Relationship between optimal and asymptotically optimal plans.
2. Strategic management tools.
3. The problem of stability of conclusions (in relation to small deviations of initial data and subjective “digitization” of qualitative assessments) when solving problems of strategic management.
4. Methods for constructing a summary assessment of a project based on assessments of individual factors.
5. Methods for choosing weighting coefficients in strategic management tasks.

Previous

Planning horizon

This article is proposed for deletion. An explanation of the reasons and the corresponding discussion can be found on the page Wikipedia: To be deleted/September 23, 2012. While the discussion process is not completed, you can try to improve the article, but you should refrain from renaming or unmotivated removal of content; for more details, see the guide to further action. Do not remove the mark for deletion until the discussion is over. Administrators: links here, history (last modified), logs, delete.

Planning horizon(English) planning time-frame) in economics is the period during which it is expected to implement the drawn up plan or program of action. In a general sense, the planning horizon is considered to be the period from the adoption of a plan to the moment of its implementation, however, as a rule, in economics it is impossible to establish the exact date when certain plans can be achieved.

In economic theory, it is customary to distinguish between the concepts of “long-term” and “short-term”. This means that, for example, at the enterprise level, achieving a goal can take a long time (for example, company growth, installation of new equipment) or a relatively short amount of time (purchase of raw materials, personnel changes). In economic and mathematical modeling, in addition to long-term and short-term, the average level is also distinguished. For each of them, their own models are developed.

Literature

• Raizberg B. A., Lozovsky L. Sh., Starodubtseva E. B. Modern economic dictionary. - 2nd ed., rev. M.: INFRA-M. 479 pp. 1999.

Links

• Planning horizon / Yandex.Dictionaries › Lopatnikov, 2003

Wikimedia Foundation. 2010.

• Imbong skyline
• Horizontal coordinate system

See what “Planning horizon” is in other dictionaries:

planning horizon- The amount of time the plan extends into the future. For a master schedule, it is usually set to cover a minimum of total cycle time plus time to account for lot sizes of underlying components and... ... Technical Translator's Guide

Planning horizon- , the same: planning horizon, (sometimes planning period) the period for which a plan or program is drawn up. For plans (programs) for various purposes G.p. are accepted differently, the very definition of optimal G.p. May be… …

PLANNING HORIZON- the period of time for which a plan is drawn up both at the level of the economy as a whole and at the level of an individual enterprise. Dictionary of financial terms... Financial Dictionary

Planning Horizon- deadline provided for in the work plan. Dictionary of business terms. Akademik.ru. 2001... Dictionary of business terms

PLANNING HORIZON- forecasting the period for which plans and forecasts are developed. Raizberg B.A., Lozovsky L.Sh., Starodubtseva E.B.. Modern economic dictionary. 2nd ed., rev. M.: INFRA M. 479 p.. 1999 ... Economic dictionary

PLANNING HORIZON Encyclopedic Dictionary of Economics and Law

PLANNING HORIZON- the period for which the plan is drawn up... Large economic dictionary

PLANNING HORIZON- – plan period (quarterly, annual, five-year, etc.) ... Concise Dictionary of Economists

planning horizon- the period for which plans, forecasts are developed... Dictionary of economic terms

Planning problem (in economics)- in the most general sense, this is the task of drawing up a plan (program) for the operation of a particular economic entity for a certain period (planning horizon). Formally salary consists of finding the best planning solutions from a variety of... Economic and mathematical dictionary

Books

• , Orobinsky Vyacheslav Vladimirovich, General book for a novice lawyer. It will help you understand how and why to study law - and what kind. It is to master and apply, ask questions yourself and find answers, do... Category: Jurisprudence Series: Law Library of Russia Publisher: Eksmo, Buy for 1095 rub.
• Good lawyer, bad lawyer. Where to start on the path from beginner to pro, Orobinsky V.V. , General ledger for the aspiring lawyer. It will help you understand how and why to study law - and what kind. It is to master and apply, ask questions yourself and find answers, do the incomprehensible... Category:

Depending on the time horizon of the organization's plan, planning is divided into three types:

short-term;

mid-term;

long-term.

This division is based on the length of time periods required to achieve planned targets and is of a technical nature.

Short-term planning is the development of plans for one year.

The content of such plans is detailed by quarter and month. In this case, the first quarter of the planning period is detailed down to the shift level. Short-term plans include specific ways to use the organization's resources to achieve goals.

Medium-term planning is based on short-term plans. It is carried out for a period of 2 to 5 years.

Long-term planning usually covers long periods - from 5 to 10 years. It cannot be identified with strategic planning, which in its content is much more complex than long-term planning. It is not a simple extrapolation of previous plans and therefore cannot be identified with the function of time, since it characterizes the function of the direction of development of the organization. All types of planning must be interconnected and not contradict each other.

The entire planning process in an organization can be divided into two main stages: developing a strategy for the organization’s activities (strategic planning) and determining tactics for implementing the strategy (operational or tactical planning).

Strategic planning is the determination of the general directions of the organization's activities, the development of its actions in response to objective external and internal circumstances. Usually it is designed for a long period. Responsibility for the development of a strategic plan lies with the management of the organization, since strategic planning requires high responsibility and large-scale coverage of all personnel activities.

Tactical planning distributes and manages all the organization's resources to ensure the fullest possible achievement of strategic goals. It usually covers short-term, medium-term and partly long-term periods.

The main difference between strategic and tactical planning is that strategic planning answers the question - what does the organization want to achieve? Tactical planning focuses on how the organization should achieve this state.

The planning process in an organization can be represented as the following algorithm. First, a decision is made to create a new business or expand the current activities of the organization. After making this decision, an analysis of one’s own capabilities and ability to implement it is carried out. At the next stage, the range of goods and services that are planned for release is selected and specified.

This stage includes the following substages: research of the potential (target) market for selected goods and services and its interaction with other markets, as well as potential competitors; estimation and forecasting of sales volume; assessment of the consumer area and determination of the territorial location of the planned production facilities.

After this, a production plan is developed for the planned production capacity, which includes:

development of a legal scheme for the planned business;

formation of accounting policies and organization of accounting;

formation of portfolios of contracts (agreement and/or protocol of intent) with suppliers and consumers with all delivery conditions;

formation of a portfolio of suppliers of equipment, technologies and construction and installation organizations with all conditions;

determination of forms and types of insurance for the planned business.

Based on all forecasts and data from previous stages

a financial plan with various time horizons, detail and scenario plans is developed and modeled with mandatory modeling of the entire range of risks.

At the last stage, a summary of the business plan is drawn up. The composition, structure and detail of the business plan are determined by the functional specifics and size of the organization, the activity of the target market, the effectiveness of competitors, as well as the strategic goals and objectives of the planned business and the growth prospects of the organization.

The structure of a business plan is fairly standard, regardless of the amount of investment required, the size of the organization and its lifespan. The scope of a business plan depends on its goals. If this is an intra-company development plan, then its scope is regulated only by the organization’s internal standards. A business plan for obtaining small or medium-sized investments usually consists of 20 - 30 seconds, and a business plan, the goal of which is to attract large investments and capital, can be up to 100 seconds. excluding applications. These volume requirements are quite conditional and, ultimately, are determined by investors and their experts.

The general requirements for a business plan can be formulated as follows: it must be concise, clear, succinct, literate, understandable to investors’ financiers, business partners, and be carried out taking into account the requirements and standards of investors.

In connection with the goals and objectives of the business, the multitude of requirements and standards of investors and the lack of a single generally accepted standard, there are different structures of the business plan with varying degrees of specificity and detail of its sections. The name, quantity, content, goals and objectives of the sections will be discussed in more detail below.