Europe has always shown good forecasts in various economic sectors. It is also famous for its high standard of living, unique medicine (for example, Germany), and low prices for food and other goods. Germany is unofficially recognized as the top of Europe.

The official currency in the European Union is the Euro (EUR). This currency is used by 17 countries (members of the EU). The European Central Bank (ECB), which is located in Frankfurt, maintains and sets the nominal value of the currency.

Economy

The European Union is the world's largest exporter. Recently, the Euro exchange rate has increased significantly against the ruble, and slightly against the dollar. This is due to the fact that a certain parity (1:1.17) has been established between the EUR and the USD (dollar), which does not allow the Euro to go below the Dollar. This is due to the fact that in addition to exporting, Europe is an active importer (second in the world) and it is beneficial for them to maintain a high exchange rate.

Unemployment in Europe is growing at a rapid pace; if in 2008 the unemployment rate was 6.7%, then in 2009 this figure was 9.3%.

Main factors influencing the EUR exchange rate

1. The first factor influencing the exchange rate is, of course, ECB policy. At the moment, the euro is one of the most liquid commodities on the market. The European currency is increasingly displacing the American currency from the market, and this speaks of the competent and consistent policy of the ECB President, Mario Draghi.
2. Dollar exchange rate. Of course, the American influences the Euro, this is due to the fact that most transactions in the market are carried out with the participation of the dollar.
3. Unemployment rate. A very important factor is unemployment; the lower the percentage of unemployment, the higher the real production, which affects the exchange rate and the economy as a whole.
4. Inflation. High inflation has a very detrimental effect on the exchange rate. A slight increase in inflation (2-7%) over one year is good, as it provides an incentive for growth.
5. Foreign policy of the EU countries. The more countries trust the EU, the better the EUR does.
6. GDP level ( Gross Domestic Product). A high level of GDP is guaranteed to ensure a stable, high exchange rate.

Euro exchange rate forecast for September 2017

Recently, the Euro exchange rate has jumped sharply against other currencies, due to the rise in the dollar exchange rate, as well as the fall in oil prices. It is extremely beneficial for the European Union to maintain the growth rate of the Euro; this will partially help displace the dollar as the most popular currency for 2016-2017. The ECB has recently begun to pursue an aggressive policy towards other currencies, creating pressure on the world market, in other words, it has increased the volume of the Euro several times. Of course, the nominal Euro exchange rate is 2-3 times higher than the real one.

Europe is a very strong player on the world stage; export and import volumes have only been growing recently. At the moment (04/2016) the Euro exchange rate is 76 rubles, which is a very high indicator of the importance of Europe in the world. In 2014, we observed a peak in the currency, which was equal to 91.1 - this is very, very high.

Despite the aggressive policy of the ECB, the euro exchange rate will drop to the level of 68-70 rubles, but first it should rise slightly to 94-96 rubles by the end of 2016-beginning of 2017. After which the rate will only fall, due to the future growth of oil, which is now $39-42 per barrel. By September 2017, the price of oil will be much higher, about $89-103 per barrel. Low oil prices are associated with the discovery of new fields in Islamic states and the active production of American shale oil. Soon the Islamic states will reduce oil volumes, and American shale will simply close due to its low liquidity.

The ECB's pressure on other currencies will not lead to anything good; sooner or later the Euro bubble will burst, just as the dollar will burst.

Based on what I read above, I think that the Euro exchange rate will be equal to 100 rubles by September 2017, and will sharply drop by the end of 2018 to 46-54 rubles.

Similar materials

Euro-dollar parity is real and can be achieved in the next six months.

The ECB's trade-weighted euro index fell to its lowest levels since March this year, mainly due to a 4% depreciation of the single currency against the dollar after the US elections. Investors tuned in to the fiscal support and economic stimulus promised by Trump and bought the dollar across the market. But now Europe can also contribute to the weakening of the euro, with some analysts believing that the euro/dollar may reach a level in the near future.

How big are the European political and financial risks for the euro? Is the forecast of parity between the euro and the dollar in the near future realistic or will it remain only on paper? When asked by Fotrader magazine, Alexander Kuptsikevich, an analyst at FxPro, commented.

Parity is quite possible

- Euro-dollar parity is real and can be achieved in the next six months. However, talk about parity is not new; back in 2015, the EURUSD pair was twice at the same levels as now, but rebounded to the area above 1.14.

The rebound in the pair was helped by the Federal Reserve revising its initially very hawkish plans for four rate hikes in 2016. These expectations turned out to be even stronger than the expansion and extension of the QE program from the ECB, without causing a weakening of the single currency. Quite the contrary, it was a nervous time for the global economy and markets used the euro as a safe haven currency, buying bonds from the region's strong economies. There was a similar movement in the USDJPY pair, so the euro in this case should not be considered as some kind of special safe haven.

Euro to dollar parity will follow immediately after 1.05

But now the probability of a further decline below 1.05 has noticeably increased, after which the next significant goal will be parity due to several factors.

First, the markets clearly felt strong resistance, observed in the pair as it approached 1.15. The EURUSD collapse during the 2014/15 dollar rally started from levels at 1.3950 and fizzled out just below 1.0500 simply because there was no one left to sell euros for dollars. A period was required to consolidate and take root the idea of ​​the couple moving to another psychological level from “obviously more expensive” to “slightly more expensive” than the dollar.

The euro's fluctuations throughout this correction period fit in quite well, with a correction near 76.4% of the initial movement and strong (but temporary support) at 100% of the first impulse. Further tracking of Fibonacci suggests the possibility of the pair collapsing to 0.83. This is a very distant goal, and seems feasible only under conditions of very serious suffering in the eurozone in comparison with the prosperity of the United States.

What could serve as a driver for a new round of decline in the near future?

First of all, of course, the change in political sentiment in Europe. From country to country, technocrats are losing ground to populists. And the latter are now inclined to blame free trade and common institutions for the lack of prosperity of their countries.

The single currency's plunge below parity could be a long-term excellent time to buy euros for dollars

Next year there will be elections in France, Germany, and probably in Italy. These are the largest countries in the eurozone, and the example of Britain has been encouraging for the centrifugal forces in these countries. Fears of a change in the political agenda alone will be enough to provoke losses of 7-12% in the single currency.

The most obvious and predictable driver of the euro’s decline is monetary policy divergence. The ECB is still pressing on the monetary easing pedal. The eurozone economy demonstrated resistance to external shocks in 2016, but is very far from the indicators that would force the ECB to curtail incentives.

Inflation has embarked on a growth path, but is unlikely to reach its target even in 2017. At the same time, high unemployment remains at 9.6%, and retail sales are growing almost imperceptibly. One of the region’s few growth points is foreign trade. The balance sheet surplus has grown markedly in recent years due to the weakening euro. Of the developed countries, only the eurozone manages to use the weakness of the currency to its advantage, and Britain and the United States were never able to fundamentally turn the deficit into a surplus - they simply no longer had the production capacity. So the weakness of the euro benefits economic activity in the region, although it does not cause a noticeable surge in inflation. This allows the ECB to exploit such “side effects” of loose monetary policy.

Conclusions in favor of the fall of the euro

My arguments in favor of lowering the euro are clear - the single currency will remain under pressure in the near future. Now I’ll say a few words about the longer term.

The eurozone is still on the path of growth (unemployment is falling, inflation is rising), so already in 2017, the ECB, in my opinion, will announce the end of QE, and when inflation reaches 2%, there will be talk of an increase. This could happen by the beginning of 2018.

The single currency is also in demand due to the growth of the economies of EU countries and the growing foreign trade surplus. We should also not forget that the ECB has historically pursued a tighter monetary policy than the Fed, due to the genetic fear of inflation by the “German bloc”. So I believe the single currency's descent below parity could be a long-term excellent time to buy euros for dollars. True, political risks may cause EURUSD to plunge straight to 0.83, just as they did not spare the British pound earlier in 2016. However, the euro will be higher in three years, probably in seven years, than it is now.

Elena Pazina

Updated: 2019.06.13

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The exchange rate is determined by market factors and depends on the ratio of demand for currency and its supply. We studied the opinions of experts regarding the dynamics of the value of the euro, and reviewed the euro forecast for 2019, presented by Russian and foreign financial analysts.

Factors that influence currency exchange rate fluctuations are divided into predictable and unpredictable.

Unpredictable - those events and circumstances that occurred suddenly, and their occurrence was impossible to predict: wars, disasters, the introduction of sanctions.

Predictable ones are those whose behavior can be planned or taken into account when making a forecast: oil and gasoline prices, the economic situation in the country. For example, the higher oil prices, the more the position of the Russian ruble strengthens, and its exchange rate rises.

The ratio of the EUR/RUB currency pair also depends on the dollar exchange rate. When the dollar exchange rate rises, the euro exchange rate also rises, and when it decreases, it falls.

Due to sanctions uncertainty and external political instability, experts predict fluctuations in the position of the ruble against the euro. Increases will alternate with decreases. And it is difficult to give an exact forecast of how much the euro will cost by the end of the year.

Euro exchange rate dynamics

Euro exchange rates for 2010-2019 are presented on the chart.

Let's take a closer look at how the euro exchange rate changed over the last year and three months of 2019.

In 2018, the exchange rate fluctuated. In general, as of 01/01/2019, the exchange rate increased compared to the data as of 01/01/2018. However, during the year the exchange rate behaved unstable. Growth gave way to decline. In September, the highest rate was observed - 79.4966, and then it began to fall again.

Financial analysts' opinion

Financial analysts have expressed varying views on what lies ahead for the euro. However, all experts agree that by the end of 2019 the euro will rise in price.

Euro exchange rate forecast from the Central Bank

Financial experts at the Central Bank predict instability in the EUR/RUB pair. This is due to instability in the global political situation. If relations between Russia and the European Union deteriorate, the price of the euro could exceed 90 rubles.

We are seeing some of this in the first quarter of 2019. The ruble either strengthens at auction or falls. The depreciation of the ruble and the rise of the euro at the end of the 1st quarter of 2019 is associated with the end of the tax period, as well as with the strengthening of the unstable external background.

Opinion of the Ministry of Economic Development

The opinion of experts from the Ministry of Economic Development is somewhat different from the opinion of the Central Bank. When considering whether the euro will rise in price, the ministry also predicts an increase in the exchange rate, but more gradually. This will be facilitated by improved relations between the United States and Russia and a relatively stable situation in Europe.

Monthly euro exchange rate forecast from Sberbank experts

Sberbank specialists provide monthly exchange rate forecasts.

Here's the latest forecast.

According to Sberbank experts, the euro exchange rate will fluctuate throughout 2019. An increase in the exchange rate is predicted in the summer, a slight drop in August-September, and an increase again by the end of the year. However, no sharp jumps are expected. At the end of the year, the projected euro exchange rate will slightly exceed 73 rubles per 1 euro.

Forecasts of foreign experts

When asked whether the euro will rise, foreign experts answer unequivocally: the euro will rise. However, a sharper jump in the exchange rate is predicted by the end of the year.

Foreign experts from Walletinvestor made their forecast using technical analysis of currency pairs on Forex.

In order not to lose your savings and not fall into a debt trap, experts advise:

• do not take out a foreign currency mortgage. Although the rates on these loans are lower than on loans in rubles, the projected increase in the exchange rate can significantly affect the family budget;
• it is better to invest money in precious metals or real estate;
• If you keep funds in foreign currency, then form a currency basket: store funds in several types of foreign currencies.

Measures to stabilize the exchange rate

The government, together with the Central Bank, is developing a set of measures to regulate the exchange rate of the national currency.

The main goal of the Bank of Russia is to develop and implement a set of measures to ensure the stability of the ruble.

Measures used to strengthen the course:

• maintaining price stability in the country and reducing inflation;
• increasing gold and foreign exchange reserves through the use of excess profits from oil sales;
• import substitution of goods and services;
• planning the state budget and reducing its expenditure;
• experts also advise not to buy currency on weekends and holidays. This is due to the fact that, in anticipation of new trading, banks increase rates in order to reduce risks in the event of sharp currency fluctuations.

Thus, it is quite difficult to predict the behavior of the EUR/RUB currency pair. It is necessary to take into account both known factors and the possibility of unexpected components. Experts' opinions on the behavior of the euro exchange rate vary, but for the most part they agree that its exchange rate will increase by the end of 2019.

Most analysts surveyed by InvestFuture predict a significant weakening of the ruble/dollar exchange rate in the autumn months. The key negative factors cited by experts are the expected weakening of demand for oil on world markets, a consistent reduction in the Bank of Russia rate, as well as growing geopolitical tensions and the expansion of anti-Russian sanctions.

In the fall of 2017, experts predict that the dollar/ruble exchange rate will strengthen to 65 rubles per unit of American currency. The euro exchange rate may rise above 72 rubles.

Vadim Pischikov (Algebra Investments): “68 rubles per dollar is a completely correct forecast given the current volatility of the ruble. In principle, for the currency of any developing country, a 10% fluctuation in the exchange rate is very moderate. I cannot say that this is the influence solely of sanctions. Very rapid growth in credit markets , on capital markets, shares in developing countries in the first half of 2017 led to the fact that investors simply decided to take profits in anticipation of the reduction of the balance sheet at the US Federal Reserve and rebalance their losses. In addition, there was news that Washington was preparing new sanctions. known back at the end of April, but the ruble did not react very much to this."

Yakov Mirkin (Head of the Department of International Capital Markets, IMEMO RAS): " On the one hand, we have long been talking about the fact that the ruble is too heavy, overvalued, does not correspond to such a weak economy, and that an exchange rate of 65-66, maybe 70, is more organic for it. On the other hand, everyone understood that the wave of carry trade was growing from the second half of last year, and as soon as non-residents, who are becoming more and more numerous in percentage terms on the Russian market, feel an increase in risks - and this may indeed be associated with sanctions - then an increase in the export of capital from the country will begin. Of course, sanctions are another factor in the overall global and macroeconomic picture."

“I agree that there is a tense expectation of some kind of shock in the air, but, from my point of view, this could be with equal probability both a correction in the ruble and a correction in the American S&P 500. There is a lot of political passion in the market news feed: fundamental factors have faded into the background,” says a leading analyst Management Company "Horizon" Vladimir Rozhankovsky.

When will the ruble fall?

Rozhankovsky from Horizon Management Company notes that in the summer, no unusual volumes are visible in the dollar/ruble and euro/ruble pairs. In the coming months, the ruble will not leave the range of 59.2-60.8 rubles per dollar, he believes. Meanwhile, the dollar index is already below 94 points, and oil is relatively stable, the analyst points out.

In the absence of cardinal events on the oil market and on the world political arena, from the point of view of technical analysis, the pair may soon move in the trading corridor of 59-60.5 rubles, where significant levels of resistance and support are located, respectively, a trader in the management of operations on the Russian stock exchange believes IR market "Freedom Finance" Vladimir Shumakov.

We are not seeing any particular weakening of the ruble, the dollar/ruble pair remains in the range of 58-60, the maximum of July 11 at 61 is still far away, the analyst also notes "VTB 24" Alexey Mikheev.

As for the euro/ruble pair, it actually updated the maximum of this year, almost reaching 70, but this is due to the fact that in recent days the euro-dollar pair has reached the highs of the year on the international currency market (the level of 1.16 is shown), Mikheev draws attention.

According to Mikheev from VTB 24, a new wave of ruble weakening should be expected in the midst of autumn, when demand for oil falls due to seasonal reasons. In the meantime, time after time, data show a reduction in US oil reserves, which supports its price, he notes. In the fall, the dollar-ruble pair may well rise to 63-65 rubles per dollar, the expert predicts.

Will the dollar soar in winter 2017?

The US Treasury intends to sharply increase the issuance of government debt in the fourth quarter, according to the forecast plan published by the US Treasury Loan Committee.

From October to December, the American budget plans to raise a total of $501 billion on the market with the help of government bonds.

According to the plan, placements in a record volume for 9 years will begin in the second half of October. The Treasury intends to collect almost a quarter of the total amount - $114 billion - in the first two weeks, until October 31. In November, the issue volume will be $243 billion.

The final quarterly figure - more than half a trillion dollars - is “simply mind-blowing,” says analyst Alexey Mikheev: more was raised per quarter only in the 2009 financial year, during the crisis.

The result of these operations will be “the withdrawal of a colossal amount of dollar liquidity from the market,” which will cause “a colossal growth of the dollar,” says Mikheev.

Demand for the US currency will come from banks - the Fed's primary dealers: they are the main buyers of US debt securities at auctions, and also control 73% of the forex market.

“These are the largest banks such as Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., Citigroup, Goldman, Sachs & Co., Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, UBS Securities, etc.,” Mikheev lists.

Keep in mind that exchange rates set by the central bank do not change on weekends! In the table below you can see the dollar and euro exchange rates for today, tomorrow and the week ahead. If you are interested in the future fate of currencies, follow the news and monitor quotes updates.

Current exchange rates on the InstaForex exchange

Monthly dollar and euro exchange rate forecast

What determines the dollar exchange rate, factors influencing exchange rates

If you are interested in buying or selling euros or dollars, the exchange rate is an important indicator for you every day. Today, both currencies are showing significant volatility. This is primarily due to political factors.

What affects the exchange rate between the US dollar and the euro:

• decisions made by diplomats within the framework of international cooperation. Yesterday Angela Merkel announced her readiness to reach an agreement with Russia - the euro fell slightly against the ruble. Tomorrow Donald Trump will release a new package of sanctions - the dollar exchange rate will skyrocket. Therefore, if you want to play on the currency exchange or make money by buying/selling currencies, you need to follow political news;
• economic situation in the country and in the world. Yes, even economic changes within Russia affect the position of the ruble, and, accordingly, the exchange rate of foreign currencies to it;
• decisions of the Central Bank. It is known that at the beginning of the aggravation of relations with Europe and the United States, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation tried to balance the jumps in exchange rates against the ruble using its own resources. Today, the volatility of the dollar and euro has decreased slightly, and the system of containment of the Russian banking network played a significant role in this.

Previous rate forecasts

We all remember the times when the dollar exchange rate did not exceed 35 rubles, and the euro remained at the level of 39-45 rubles. Unfortunately or fortunately, these rates have not appeared on display boards in banks and exchange offices for several years. Below is our forecast of exchange rates a few days before the rapid fall of the ruble. This information is presented just like that, as a keepsake...

Dear visitors to the site “Currency exchange rate forecast for tomorrow”, please note that the forecast for the dollar and euro exchange rates is given for informational purposes only and cannot be regarded as a guide to action! We are not responsible for the accuracy of these forecasts, because... exchange rates depend on a huge number of factors and even the most experienced trader, broker, financier (yes, in general, anyone) will not be able to predict the exchange rate for tomorrow, for a week or for a month with 100% accuracy!