Alexander Ermakov, director of the Transport and Logistics practice at the consulting company Strategy Partners Group, spoke about an assessment of one of the most opaque segments of the logistics services market - the organization of transportation of groupage cargo.

This is the transportation of several goods belonging to different shippers and consignees in one vehicle. The segment in question includes the transportation of consolidated cargo weighing from approximately one kilogram to ten tons. Consolidated cargoes of smaller mass are classified as postal items. Mail transportation is another segment.

Of course, shipments as part of groupage cargo take longer to travel than with direct delivery, since they need to go through at least two terminals, where batches are formed/disbanded and await the flight to the destination city. For clients using the groupage cargo transportation service (and these are mainly legal entities), low cost is more important than speed of delivery. This is the main advantage of this type of cargo transportation: logistics companies operating in this segment reduce the transport costs of their clients by consolidating various shipments to an economically justified volume of transportation.

The Russian logistics market, including the groupage cargo transportation segment, is considered one of the most opaque. What is the reason for the lack of statistics on the market?

Let's start with the fact that in Russia there is no regular collection of data regarding the segment, and market players are usually not inclined to disclose detailed information about their activities. These are mainly non-public companies, and there are quite a lot of them - this is not the case when there are 3-4 large overwhelming players, by which one can judge what the market as a whole is. For example, the situation with the rail transportation market is completely different - it can be determined with an accuracy of one tonne-kilometer, because the services are provided by one company and full records are kept. But in the case of the groupage cargo transportation segment, we can only talk about some possible range.

You can find statistical data on OKVED code 63.40, “Organization of cargo transportation,” but this includes the organization of transportation of both consolidated and non-consolidated cargo, forwarding, customs brokerage and other logistics activities. In a word, statistics combine many different segments into one category, so it is impossible to understand from it the volume of the segment that interests us. Therefore, we are forced to rely on expert assessments, and it is desirable that they be tied to at least something.

What assessment methodology did you use, and how large is this segment in relation to the overall logistics services market in Russia?

In our study, we looked at the situation in those countries where it was possible to obtain the necessary statistics - primarily the USA. Statistics are also collected in Western Europe, but there the structure of the transport and logistics market is fundamentally different, for example, transportation of raw materials - coal, ore, and so on - is insignificant. The USA is somewhat closer to Russia - both in distance and in the structure of cargo turnover. What we call groupage cargo is divided into two categories: parcels and Less than truckload - the border between them is around 70 kg. We calculated the share of these two segments in the total cargo transportation market - in the USA it is 7.2% - and made an expert adjustment for the Russian market, arriving at a figure of 4%. Based on the assessment of the Russian transport services market given by RBC.research, we find that in monetary terms this 4% amounts to approximately 70 billion rubles.

However, you need to understand that this is not an exact estimate, but rather a mathematical expectation of the segment’s volume, that is, there is some kind of confidence interval: plus or minus 10-15 billion rubles.

Experts have been predicting rapid growth of the logistics market in Russia for more than ten years, but it is not happening. How can you explain this?

These predictions are based on a comparison of the share of the logistics segment with the total volume of the transport and logistics services market in developed countries, which can reach 50%. In Russia, this figure is approximately 15%, and it is not yet possible to expect it to rise to Western levels. I think this is due to the structure of our economy, which is focused primarily on the raw materials component, and when transporting coal, metal, and so on, the need for logistics services is less than when transporting goods with high added value.

Are there large players in the market with a significant share? Is market consolidation possible in the near future?

At the moment, the largest players in this segment - Zheldorekspeditsiya, Business Lines have a share of 10-15%. In my opinion, there are no objective prerequisites for consolidation. That is, it will practically not work here as a means of increasing efficiency and reducing costs through economies of scale. Companies can exist quite happily in this segment and make a competitive offer, even those operating on the same route, say, Moscow-Irkutsk. Low barriers to entry for new companies. Of course, isolated acquisitions can occur, but it is unlikely that a situation will arise in which one of the players will have 50% of the market.

What is your forecast for market development in the short term?

The main trend is a significant change in its structure. We can expect the traditional “collectors” to be gradually displaced from the “parcel” sub-segment by courier companies, as has happened in the US over the past 30 years. For example, DPD and Pony Express are already quite active in it.

Perhaps the position of rail transportation will change slightly. There was a tendency for their share to decrease, but if, as is currently planned, tolls for heavy vehicles on federal highways are introduced in December 2014, then a reverse trend may arise for some period.

The much talked about crisis is unlikely to have a significant impact on this segment. Yes, volumes from current customers will decrease, but new ones will come who previously shipped goods in whole trucks, but due to the fall in volumes they will reorient themselves to groupage transportation.

It is most likely that the volume of the segment will continue its inertial growth and by 2020 will reach 80 billion rubles under the pessimistic scenario and 100 billion rubles under the optimistic scenario.

Alexander Ermakov, Director of the Transport and Logistics practice of the consulting company Strategy Partners Group

From time to time, experts put forward very optimistic forecasts that the Russian economy will soon return to pre-crisis levels, the purchasing power of the population will show an increase, and business, including in the field of logistics, will begin to generate significant profits.

Yes, according to preliminary results, in the first half of 2017, cargo turnover in the segment increased by 9%. But this indicator cannot yet be attributed to a stable trend, since the market has not yet recovered from the losses suffered. How is the freight transportation market developing in modern conditions, should we expect changes in basic tariffs, and what influence does the state have on market development?

Freight market analysis

The role of the transport and logistics industry in the Russian economy is quite large - it is 5.6% of GDP, which is comparable to India and higher than that of other developed countries such as Germany and the USA. The per capita indicators of added value of this sector in Russia, which is $717 per person, are significantly higher than in other BRIC countries, but inferior to the indicators of the USA and Germany. At the same time, one of the drivers of growth in cargo transportation was the European direction, where exports grew by 20.07%.

According to Rosstat, the freight turnover of road transport from January to August 2017 amounted to 153.6 billion km/ton, which is 4.2% higher than what was recorded in the same period last year. There is also a positive dynamics in transport freight turnover. Thus, cargo transportation by road in August of this year amounted to 507.7 million tons, or 102.2% compared to August 2016 and 104.8% compared to July 2017.

Despite the fact that road shipments in the overall structure of cargo transportation, according to Rosstat, already occupy a leading place (more than 65%), they tend to grow. This is primarily due to a decrease in the average size of freight shipments, which allowed carriers to “snatch” customers from competing companies, including railway operators. In addition, many companies have recently begun to monitor logistics costs more closely, so they are more often using long-distance vehicles on medium and long-distance routes.

The influence of the state on cargo transportation

The development of the road freight transportation market is influenced by the legislative activities of the state. We are talking in particular about the “Platon” system, which was developed to collect additional taxes for the construction and maintenance of the road transport network in working order. The system applies to vehicles whose total weight exceeds 12 tons.

Platon was launched at the end of 2015, which was one of the factors in increasing tariffs for road freight transport in 2016. If before Plato the average monthly negative indicators of freight turnover by road transport fluctuated around 4.5%, then after the introduction of the system, according to Rosstat, they began to grow even more rapidly, reaching 7.6% in November.

At the same time, on July 1 of this year, the cost of travel on federal roads should have been indexed. However, one of the amendments to the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation “On some issues of collecting tolls to compensate for damage caused to public roads of federal significance by vehicles with a permissible maximum weight of over 12 tons” postpones indexation for 1 year.

Thus, next summer a noticeable increase in tariffs for cargo transportation in the Platon system is expected, so that logistics will become more expensive again for small and medium-sized entrepreneurs. It is worth noting that in 2018, the fare will be indexed taking into account the entire period, which began on November 15, 2015. Meanwhile, the effectiveness of such a system raises certain doubts, including among specialists.

According to open information, the state spends 1 trillion on the construction and maintenance of roads. rubles per year. The implementation of the Platon system involves receiving 40 billion rubles within 12 months. According to experts, the damage caused to the roadway by heavy vehicles is about 2.5 trillion. rubles per year. The given figures do not clarify the picture at all, and many still do not understand how the money received as a result of the additional collection will help cope with the problem of broken roads.

Experts' forecasts

The growing need for reliable and affordable cargo service largely becomes the key to the successful operation of this type of business in modern conditions. Analysts note that today it is important not only to deliver cargo on time, but also to provide the client with additional services such as insurance and cargo tracking, acceptable resolution of disputes, and so on. The absolute winners will be those logistics organizations that will not spare investment in IT infrastructure and equipment that allows, for example, to apply optimal traffic algorithms, speed up cargo processing in the warehouse, analyze cargo flows and much more.

Based on forecasts for the growth of cargo transportation, experts expect an increase in the activity of carriers in the near future, which in the current conditions are becoming one of the few reliable borrowers of leasing companies. Commercial vehicle market specialists have been saying for many years that there is pent-up demand in this segment of the auto industry, which has already begun to manifest itself in the form of sales growth this year. According to the Autostat agency, since January of this year, sales of trucks have increased by 2.2% - to 46.4 thousand vehicles. Expectations of rising world oil prices against the backdrop of a stable ruble exchange rate and the achievement of low inflation in the country will allow motor transport operators to hope that these investments will justify themselves.

Taking into account statistical data, as well as expert forecasts, it can be assumed that 2017 will be a kind of “moment of truth” for many transport and logistics companies.

The determining factors for market development will be high competencies, the ability to adapt to unstable, constantly changing market conditions, as well as a reasonable ratio of price and quality indicators of the services provided. Experts expect a fundamental change in the situation no earlier than 2018.

Video: Rental of special equipment and cargo transportation services without intermediaries!

Analysis of the Russian groupage cargo transportation market is complicated by the fact that market players are not inclined to disclose details of their activities: when describing the general situation, they prefer to remain silent about specific figures. However, industry experts, with different assessments of the situation on the market, agree on one thing - we cannot yet expect rapid growth in the segment.

At the beginning of the year, the consulting company Strategy Partners Group conducted a comparative analysis of data using indicators from countries in which the relevant statistics are kept. In particular, data from the United States was used, as a country comparable to Russia in terms of delivery range, and Poland, where the level of development of the segment is comparable to the domestic one. Taking into account the fact that the overall logistics market in our country is estimated at 260 billion rubles, that is, 12.7% of the total volume of the transport and logistics services market, the groupage cargo transportation segment was estimated by Strategy Partners Group experts at 72 billion rubles.

There are other, less optimistic assessments of the current market situation. In particular, Viktor Bortsov, head of the Russian Railways department, estimates the segment at no more than 58-60 billion rubles. This opinion is supported by other companies operating in the groupage cargo delivery segment.

As for the largest players, the leader of the segment is the Zheldorekspeditsiya company (whose share is about 15%). Next come “Business Lines” and PEC.

Today, the market for groupage cargo transportation has an ambiguous situation: the largest companies do not want to exchange information with colleagues, while the further development of the industry requires a productive dialogue from the players. In March, the Infranews portal took the first step towards overcoming this obstacle and held. The speakers included representatives of the companies Strategy Partners Group, Business Lines, Russian Railways and Svetlana-K. Among the guests were also representatives of Sberbank Leasing, Eximp Logistic, Baikal and STS Asia.

A positive outcome of this conference can be attributed, at a minimum, to the fact that its participants were able to exchange opinions and confirm or refute the assessments of other industry representatives. Thus, the meeting participants unanimously agreed that the main market trend is a slight increase in cargo traffic. The crisis is forcing companies to consider alternative transportation methods, and road transport, although not the most budget-friendly, is the most convenient option in this case. The opinion about the impossibility of market consolidation was equally clear: in the presence of clear leaders and many small companies, the formation of a monopolist is too unlikely.

According to experts, the groupage cargo transportation segment will continue its inertial growth, reaching a volume of 80 billion rubles by 2020 under the pessimistic scenario and 100 billion rubles under the optimistic scenario, while significant changes will occur in the structure of supply with the strengthening of the positions of courier companies. The fact is that the bulk of the market falls on consumer goods. The 2000s were marked by a noticeable increase in consumer activity of the population, which naturally affected the volume of cargo transportation. In the current economic situation, one cannot expect high demand for goods with high added value. In this light, the area of ​​e-commerce looks the most promising, but this will not have a significant impact on the entire market.

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Review of the logistics services market in the segment of groupage cargo transportation in Ukraine. 2016 (article: 26317 25375)

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Review date: September 2016

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Number of pages: 24, Arial, 1 spaced, 10 point

Graphs and diagrams: 8

Tables: 10

1. General characteristics of the groupage cargo market in Ukraine3

1.1. Analysis of market development trends in 2014-6 months. 2016 (plus factors influencing the development of the industry)

1.2. General market indicators, calculation of the capacity of the logistics services market in 2014-6 months. 2016 in monetary terms (including allocation of the market share of consolidated cargo in the structure of the logistics services market) - estimated

2. Main logistics operators in the consolidated cargo market in Ukraine

2.1. List of the main operators in the groupage cargo market, a brief description of their activities, ratings by the volume of storage space - based on the availability of information

2.2. Degree of competition and risks

3. Price and pricing in the consolidated cargo market in Ukraine

3.1. Average prices by operator by type of service - by calling

3.2. Description of factors influencing price formation, structure

3.3. Price and pricing in the use of warehouse real estate. Basic rental rates

5. Investment attractiveness of the industry

5.1. SWOT - analysis of market direction

5.2. Risks and barriers to entry into the market

Description of the main operators of the groupage cargo transportation market in Ukraine

Description of the main operators of the market for logistics transportation of groupage cargo in Ukraine

Basic parameters for assessing the competitive environment of the market under study

Assessment of the competitive environment in the groupage cargo transportation market

Results of assessing the competitive environment in the Ukrainian groupage cargo transportation market

Average cost of warehouse processing and storage services in Ukraine, in 2015, UAH

SWOT analysis of the groupage cargo transportation market

Risks and barriers in the Ukrainian logistics services market

List of graphs, diagrams and diagrams:

Dynamics of changes in the volume of industrial production compared to the same period of the previous year in 2014 - 1st half. 2016

Dynamics of changes in the volume of foreign trade in comparison with the same period of the previous year in 2014 - 1st half. 2016 in monetary terms

Dynamics of cargo transportation volume in Ukraine in 2014 - 1st half. 2016 in physical terms, billion t/km

Dynamics of the volume of the cargo transportation services market in Ukraine in 2014 - 1st half. 2016 in monetary terms, billion UAH

Dynamics of the market volume of cargo transportation services in the groupage cargo segment in Ukraine in 2014 - 1st half. 2016 in monetary terms, billion UAH

Dynamics of the groupage cargo market segment (according to advertisements) in Ukraine in 2014 - 1st half. 2016 in monetary terms, billion UAH

Forecast of the volume of transportation of consolidated cargo in Ukraine in 2016 - 2018. in monetary terms, UAH

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The market for transport and logistics services in Russia is relatively young, however, it tends to develop rapidly. This article provides an overview of the state of transport and logistics services for the period from 2010 to 2015. The problems and prospects for the development of this industry are considered, taking into account changes in the economic and political life of the country.

• Analysis of the dynamics of statistical data on the transportation of passengers by public transport
• Modern logistics systems for the collection and distribution of goods
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• Ways to compensate for damage caused by vehicles to roads in Russia and in the world
• Application of logistics management to improve the efficiency of a transport company

Today, in Russia, the market for transport and logistics services is actively developing. The industry of storage and transportation of goods has great development potential in large-scale Russia. Every year, transport networks are expanded and improved due to the efforts of the state. The key modes of transport in Russia are road, rail and air.

In modern Russia, transport infrastructure is constantly developing and improving, as a result of which the role and spread of this logistics industry is increasing, which in turn provides services for urgent and high-quality delivery of goods.

Logistics is a science that studies the planning, management and control of warehousing, delivery, movement of material flows in the process of delivery, processing and bringing finished products to the buyer.

Logistics includes: storage, transportation and other methods of delivering goods to the client or consumer in accordance with the interests and requirements of the latter, as well as the transfer, storage and processing of relevant information.

The concept of transport logistics is the science of system integration of logistics and transport activities, in the form of transport and logistics services, to optimize cargo flows based on current legislation.

The main task of logistics is planning the optimal territorial (or geographic) placement of the required materials and raw materials to meet the needs for them and for the smooth operation of organizations. It is worth noting the importance of the role of the functioning of logistics companies, since with the help of a certain set of tasks facing specialists, it is possible to achieve maximum optimization of transport services, as well as maximize profits by means of the greatest reduction in possible costs.

The modern Russian market for logistics services consists of the following segments:

• transportation of goods by different types of transport;
• warehousing and distribution;
• forwarding services;
• management logistics.

The study of transport logistics in Russia today is quite relevant.

Let's consider the current state of the transport and logistics market. The structure of the Russian transport and logistics market by type of service for 2015 is presented in Table 1.

Table 1. Structure of the Russian transport and logistics market for 2015

According to Table 1, it can be seen that cargo transportation (transport and logistics services) accounts for 88% of the total volume of the Russian logistics market, in turn, the share of forwarding services accounts for 9%. The lowest market share is in warehousing and distribution - 2%, as well as in management logistics - only 1%.

The high importance of the transport and logistics market is associated with the large territory of Russia (17,125,191 km 2). The Russian transport system consists of many roads and routes:

• highways (hard surface) – 984 thousand km;
• air routes – 800 thousand km;
• main pipelines – 250 thousand km;
• inland waterways – 102 thousand km;
• railways – 86 thousand km.

An important task in the transport and logistics services market is the optimal and correct preparation of a transportation plan. Of course, it is necessary to determine the best route for cargo (shortest route with minimal costs). Transport logistics deals with tasks related to planning the movement of goods to obtain the best result.

Table 2. Freight turnover by mode of transport (billion tkm)

Source: Federal State Statistics Service

Figure 1. Dynamics of freight turnover by mode of transport in Russia (2010-2014)

Based on the data presented, we can note a general increase in freight turnover for all types of transport, with the exception of 2014. In 2013, the total freight turnover of transport amounted to 5084 billion tkm, and in 2014 it was slightly less - 5077 billion tkm, this decrease is due to with the deterioration of political and economic relations between Russia and the West (imposition of sanctions in connection with the events in Ukraine). The decrease is primarily due to the fact that Russia is included in many international transport corridors and the sanctions regime has reduced the scale of cargo transportation.

Table 3. Commercial transportation of goods by mode of transport (million tons)

Source: Federal State Statistics Service

The most significant share of commercial cargo transportation in 2015 was accounted for by railway transport - 1410 million tons (industrial railway - 507.4 million tons, public railway - 902.6 million tons) and road – 1099 million tons. In the period 2014-2015, it can be noted that there is a decrease in the number of transportations by all types of transport, with the exception of sea transport, in which there is an increase of 106%.

Based on the data on cargo turnover, we can conclude that there is a trend towards a stable increase in this indicator, especially in recent years, which poses new challenges for the country’s economy in general and transport and logistics services in particular.

Table 4. Passenger turnover by types of public transport (billion passenger-kilometers)

Source: Federal State Statistics Service

Based on the data presented, it can be noted that passenger turnover has had a positive trend from 2010 to 2014. Passenger turnover for all types of transport increased by 71 billion passenger-km. According to Rostat, air transport is the most popular in 2014 - 241.4 billion passenger-km, followed by railway and bus (including minibus) vehicles, 128.8 and 127.1 billion passenger-km each. .-km respectively.

Table 5. Length of communication routes (at the end of the year; thousand km)

Source: Federal State Statistics Service

Table 6. Availability of vehicles (at the end of the year; thousand units)