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Risk concept

Risk is usually understood as a probabilistic measure of the occurrence of dangerous man-made or natural phenomena, as well as a description of the amount of social, economic, environmental and other types of damage and harm caused. In other words, risk should be understood as the expected frequency or probability of occurrence of hazards of a certain class, or the amount of possible damage (loss, harm) from an undesirable event, or some combination of these values. The use of the concept of risk allows us to transfer danger into the category of measurable categories. Risk is, in fact, a measure of danger.

Dangers in GA

Emergence dangerous situations is the result of the manifestation of a certain set of risk factors generated by certain sources, circumstances, conditions. In relation to the problem of safety of civil engineering activities, such events can be: deterioration under the influence unfavorable factors flight health or death of a person (user of air transport services), significant damage or destruction of an aircraft, pollution or destruction of the ecological system caused by factors of civil aviation activities, material damage from realized dangers or increased safety costs.

Risk objects

Each undesirable event can occur in relation to a specific victim - an object of risk. The connection between risk objects and undesirable events allows us to distinguish between individual, technical, environmental, social and economic risk. Each type of risk has characteristic sources of occurrence.

Types of risk

Individual risk

Individual risk is determined by the likelihood of potential hazards occurring when dangerous situations arise. It can be assessed by the number of events that caused harm to the life and health of people as a result of the manifestation of a certain risk factor: Ri=P(t)/L(f) where Ri is the individual risk; P is the number of victims (dead) per unit of time t from a certain risk factor f; L is the number of people exposed to the corresponding risk factor f per unit of time t.

continuation

An individual risk can be voluntary if it is caused by a person’s activities on a voluntary basis, and forced if a person is exposed to risk as part of a part of society (for example, using potentially dangerous transport services).

Technical risk

Technical risk is a comprehensive indicator of the reliability of technosphere elements. It expresses the probability of an accident or catastrophe during the operation of machines, mechanisms, implementation technological processes: where Rt - technical risk; T - number of incidents due to equipment failures per unit time t at identical technical systems ah and objects; T is the number of identical technical systems and objects subject to general factor risk f.

Environmental risk

Environmental risk expresses the likelihood of an environmental disaster, catastrophe, disruption of further normal functioning and the existence of ecological systems and objects as a result of anthropogenic interference in natural environment or natural disaster. Undesirable environmental risk events can manifest themselves both directly in intervention zones and beyond:

where RO - environmental risk; O is the number of man-made environmental disasters and natural disasters per unit of time t; O is the number of potential sources of environmental destruction in the territory under consideration.

Social risk

Social risk characterizes the scale and severity negative consequences various kinds of phenomena and transformations that reduce the quality of life of people. Essentially, it is a risk to a group or community of people. It can be assessed, for example, by the dynamics of mortality calculated per 1000 people of the corresponding group: where RC is social risk; C1 is the number of deaths per unit of time t (mortality) in the study group at the beginning of the observation period, for example, before the development of negative social events; C2 - mortality in the same group of people at the end of the observation period; L is the total number of the study group.

Technological risks include errors in measurements, calculations and (or) accounting, violation of deadlines for submitting information, failures in software, loss of the database, as well as any other violation of technological conditions related to the performance by the CMO of its services under the contract (agreement). Let's consider the following classification.

Operational risks arise due to imperfect organization of processes, personnel errors, and unfavorable external events.

Technical risks are the consequences of technical malfunctions, poor-quality repairs, physical and moral wear and tear of equipment.

Business continuity risks are caused by violations of the normal execution of ECM business processes during such a period of time when there is a possibility of its non-compliance with the technological conditions of the contract (agreement). These risks require special study and cannot be predicted from the results of the activities of Russian CMOs due to the lack of representativeness of the available information.

Operational and technical risks are associated with the use of measuring and information systems. In this case, the so-called “scale effect” is observed, when specific difficulties arise when integrating a number of local relatively simple systems V complex system. Creating powerful IT support for the activities of CMOs and connecting more and more new AIIS CUEs to databases entails the risks of the emergence of new effects that could not be foreseen when designing the information system.

The risk of liquidation of the OKU due to improper performance of the functions of the main activity

It can be realized due to miscalculations in the organization of CMOs, gross mistakes in operational activities, as well as in the absence of an adequate response to changes in market rules. An unfavorable event in the area of the main types of CMO business cannot happen instantly, therefore, with proper work with customers, the risk is easily manageable. However, constant monitoring is required here external environment(legislation, economic situation in the country, progress of electricity reform) and the quality of services provided.

Risk management system

It is advisable to build EMO risk management on an integrated basis. It should include the following controls:

Wednesday internal control– increasing employee awareness of risk management and control systems. The internal control system must become part of the corporate culture;

identification of risks and control objectives – timely detection risks, distribution of powers to manage them and establishment of clear control objectives;

information and awareness – obtaining timely, reliable and adequate information on risks. Control information must be transferred to predetermined recipients from among management;

internal control procedures – procedures that ensure complete and accurate accounting of transactions, compliance with the requirements of laws and regulations, reliability of data processing and integrity of information;

monitoring and adjustment

– identifying changes in external and internal conditions activities requiring appropriate modifications to internal control procedures, identification of deficiencies and implementation of adjustments.

When determining the effectiveness of the internal control system, it is necessary to take into account specific methods and technology, the number of inspections performed or errors identified, and the actions (or inaction) of management and owners of EMOs aimed at introducing internal control into all business processes, timely assessment of risks and the effectiveness of control measures used to mitigate their impact.

To build a risk management system, it is advisable to use a set of measures that includes the following main components.

1. Formation of a risk management policy at the level of the board of directors with determination of risk tolerance in the main areas of activity of the CMO, associated with the management hierarchy and company resources.

2. Typology, identification and ranking of risk groups in the main areas of activity at the top management level

3. Assessment of the main risk groups and determination of risk management methods (avoidance, compensation, minimization, etc.) at the level of executive management.

4. Formation of integrated maps of powers and responsibilities for risk management throughout the management hierarchy and various functional divisions of the company.

provision to sales, network and generating companies special conditions when providing services;

implementation of only economically feasible investment projects on the development of AIIS KUE and IT support;

implementation of measures to reduce costs in the provision of services;

creation of a personnel recruitment system with several stages of testing, interviews and other activities that will allow the most trained specialists with work experience and the necessary skills to be hired at the EMO;

creation of a system for training employees, improving their qualifications, and annual certification;

introduction of modern information support on electricity metering based on advanced IT solutions;

change tracking regulatory framework and prompt changes in work patterns with customers;

development effective system regulatory documentation, including provisions on divisions, job descriptions, operating regulations indicating the tasks, functions and responsibilities of managers for the timeliness and correctness of decision-making to minimize risks in their area of competence;

expansion of the client base (grid organizations, power supply companies, civil companies, NP "ATS", SO and companies providing heat, water and gas supply);

expansion of the range of services offered (commercial metering of gas, water, heat energy, communication services)

Technical, economic and technological components of risk

Technical, economic and technological components form technical, economic and technological risk.

Technical and economic risk is the likelihood of a change in development trends or revolutionary changes in technology.

If necessary, based on the results system analysis Recommendations are being developed for introducing changes in control, management and safety systems during the operation of equipment and maintenance of technological processes. Thus, the emergence of a new highly efficient alternative energy source (for example, a thermonuclear reaction at room temperature or hydrogen energy) or another accident at a nuclear power plant like the Chernobyl one can dramatically change the development of energy and the price of energy received by the old one. traditional way, will become higher than socially acceptable.

Technical and economic risk, like other components of risk, has both a technical, economic and non-economic, mainly social component.

Technological risk determined by the degree of reliability of technologies and their failure-free operation.

Fatigue of materials, unexpected deviations of meteorological factors from calculated ones - everything must be subjected to careful analysis by experts. Even the “twice a fool” calculation does not remove human factor technological risk. Since an increase in the degree of technological reliability always or, as a rule, most often leads to an increase in the cost of the project, and therefore is closely related to economic parameters.

When implementing national economic projects, the analysis of technological reliability includes not only the object itself (for example, a hydroelectric dam), but also its infrastructure, as well as its surroundings. In extreme circumstances, there should be no obstacles to eliminating the consequences of accidents. Naturally, technological risk is associated with an emergency price or risk price.

Emergency price(price of risk) is expressed by a markup resulting from taking into account the degree of probability of an accident occurring, potentially possible during the operation of the facility without the intervention of catastrophic natural factors(earthquakes, tsunamis, etc.). Thus, the price of risk characterizes the probability of self-destruction of an object or its accident and the costs of eliminating their damage.

The amounts required to eliminate accidents must be taken into account when economic assessment project. For example, damage from an accident and destruction on Chernobyl nuclear power plant, algebraically summable with economic efficiency station, does not give a positive balance (it does not arise even in comparison with overall efficiency all nuclear power plants in the country).

The emergency price is a calculated value derived from the mathematical probability of an accident and the damage expected from it. For nuclear power plants this value rose by lately by six orders of magnitude, since the primary calculations do not correspond to the practice of operating nuclear power plants.

When determining the emergency price, the technological culture of the country and its region should be taken into account. In places with a low technological culture, the emergency price increases sharply.

The cost of stress and mistrust of technical objects (for example, radiophobia and chemophobia) is constantly growing. Increase in stress-related morbidity from proximity nuclear power plant on average is estimated to be 0.7%, the decrease in labor productivity from man-made stress is estimated to reach 50% in some cases.

Structure of the report and main points Basic Concepts Features of electrical power engineering specifications and their operation Technical risks. Examples, evaluations Review and features technical and technological risks in Russia The need, features and possibilities for monitoring technical and technological risks About risk management Conceptual harmonization of the language of technical specialists and managers is necessary. Technical risks are accumulating. The wave is expected within 10 years. There are significantly special technical and technological risks in Russia associated with disruption of energy supply. Monitoring of technical and technological risks is necessary as a means of management and solution language problem interaction between managers and technical specialists. It is necessary to reduce the dependence of human and equipment safety on the uninterrupted centralized power supply

Basic concepts Risk is the possibility of not achieving goals (management factor). Technical risk – the possibility of loss of adequacy of the technical specifications to the conditions of its application. (RTN). (Risk of uselessness and danger of application). Technological risk – the possibility of ineffective use of technical specifications. (RTL). (Risk of technological errors). Monitoring – object observation and risk assessment at the pace of the process

Reproduction of PF with uniform input of capacity (idealization) Average term service years, taking into account extensions of years. Total commissioned capacity 200 thousand MW Cost of reproduction of the gene. power (at 1000$/kW) 200 billion dollars. The cost, taking into account electrical and heating networks, is 400 billion dollars. The cost of annual renewable capacity is 400/50 = 8 billion dollars.

Wave of production plant reproduction, taking into account the actual schedule for commissioning of capacities. Average wear and tear of the plant in 2005 50% Average service life of years, taking into account year extensions. Total commissioned capacity 200 thousand MW Cost of reproduction of the gene. power (at 1000$/kW) 200 billion dollars. The cost, taking into account electrical and heating networks, is 400 billion dollars. The cost of annual renewable capacity in years is 400/50/4 = 2 billion dollars. /year in /50 = 8 billion dollars. /year in /50x2 = 16 billion dollars. /year in /50x1.5= 12 billion dollars. /year

Review of risk factors Meta level Inadequacy of demand High physical and moral deterioration of the plant Insufficient observability and controllability of processes Insufficient competence of personnel Incorrectness of object models when making decisions The most significant factors of the first approximation Balance sheet inadequacy of generation, high share of unregulated generation in the European part Increased accident rate and downtime of worn-out equipment Balance sheet inadequacy of the electrical network in terms of active power (many connected sections with insufficient throughput) Balance inadequacy of the electrical network of 330 kV and above in terms of reactive power (inadequacy and poor controllability of reactive power compensation means) Insufficient observability of distribution modes electrical networks(110 kV and below) Inadequacy of distribution networks for the transmission of electricity Insufficient emergency control of the active power mode Insufficient feedback (monitoring of reliability, readiness and participation in management) Excessive dependence of life-supporting and dangerous industries on the uninterrupted power supply Unclear responsibility

Features of risks of power supply disruptions in Russia. Management Connectedness of heat and electricity supply Limited substitution of heat supply and electricity supply for heating Extreme cold weather and its unpredictability Insufficiency local funds backup of life support and systems for the safe completion of technological processes Non-distribution of responsibility for safety in the event of disruptions Reducing the degree of dependence of life support on centralized energy supply: Preparation of technical regulations on safety in the event of disruptions in energy supply. Development and use of local (backup) sources. Application of systems for safe completion of technological processes. Advance development of action plans and creation of headquarters for actions in emergency situations. Creation of risk monitoring systems and early warning of threats. Dissemination of knowledge about individual and group actions, methods of survival in extreme conditions.

The need to monitor RTN and RTL is due to the aging of equipment, the disruption of continuity of operation when changing generations (not transfer of experience), the increase in the targeting of responsibility, the change in the modes of generation and transmission of electricity, the implementation of energy supply to regions by many entities, the complication of technical devices and technologies Discrepancy in the dynamics of reform, processing of the regulatory and technical framework for the design and operation of energy facilities, training and retraining of personnel.

Monitoring model 1. Group A (Fuel supply) A1. Discrepancy (deficit) between real and planned standard reserves fuel and energy resources (FER) (coal, fuel oil). A2. Current and possible future shortages of gas and fuel oil. AZ. Current and possible future shortages of coal. 2. Group B (State of fixed assets of the fuel and energy complex) 2.1. Sources of heat and electrical energy. B11. The ratio of maximum load and available power. B12. Load bearing readiness factor. B13. Residual service life of equipment. B14. The ratio of production and restoration of operational resource. B15. The ratio of unit operating costs to the regional average level. B 16. Level ratio harmful emissions with the regional average. 2.2 Heating networks. B21. The ratio of throughput and maximum load. B22. The coefficient of localization of accidents in distribution networks (presence and condition of shut-off equipment). B23. Residual operational life of the heating network (pipelines, channels, heating units, pumping stations). B24. The ratio of production and restoration of operational resource. B25. Share of make-up in the coolant circulation. B26. The share of heat loss in useful vacation. 2.3 Electrical networks B31. Ratio throughput networks and maximum capacities. B32. Load bearing readiness factor. B33. Residual service life. B34. The ratio of production and restoration of operational resource. B35. The ratio of specific operating costs for energy transmission to the regional average level. B36. The share of energy losses in the network transmission.

Monitoring RTN and RTL requirements: Completeness of coverage significant processes. A high degree of their structure, providing the possibility of holistic perception and understanding of a multidimensional and heterogeneous phenomenon. Multi-level representation of what is happening with effective aggregation and taking into account relationships. Visualization of the situation (Example) for one time slice (D1)АВС a) normal condition b) dangerous conditions c) critical conditions A B C

Inherent in only one country (one company).

They are an external risk in relation to the company’s activities, because caused by external factors and does not depend on the characteristics of the company’s activities.

Feature of the risk: the company cannot influence it, but is only able to deal with its consequences (exception: if the company can lobby with its interests in the government or are themselves represented by the government).

Types of risks:

risk of changes in industry legislation;

the risk of introducing restrictions on import-export operations;

rice changes in the customs system and customs legislation;

risk of protectionism;

risk of changes in labor legislation;

changes in income tax rates;

risk of changes in basic tax rates (UST, UTII, personal income tax);

the risk of changes in the system of providing tax preferences and deductions.

Risk can be quantified. To work with it, you need to know the legislation and have qualified workers.

Technical and technological risks

Presented:

technical;

technological.

Refers to internal risks.

Technical risk – risk caused by disruptions in the organization of production, technological disasters and changes in production intensity.

Technical risk is expressed:

in sudden stops in production;

in equipment failures and breakdowns;

failure to achieve the desired parameters of the organization’s activities at a significant level of technology;

in the interaction of technology with existing technical means.

Its feature– is not capable of covering losses through the depreciation fund; does not lead to losses; may be due to human factors.

Technological risk – is associated with the characteristics of the technologies used by companies.

Types of risk:

Imperfect technologies that accelerate wear and tear of technical equipment;

Technology does not give the company any competitive advantage;

Obsolescence of technologies;

The risk of losing technological advantage as a result of the activities of competitors;

Incompatibility of technology, or its inapplicability when the scale of the organization’s activities changes;

The technology can be effective if it does not comply with legislation and product quality requirements;

Evaluation methods:

all qualitative methods of technological risks;

assessment method accompanied by documentation.

Risks associated with the human factor

All risks that can influence human behavior or are caused by it have an impact on the decision-making process and can influence the interests of participants in the activity (extracting interests).

Types of risks:

Behavioral risks;

Risk of conflicts;

Risk of disloyalty;

Risk of incompetence and unprofessionalism.

Behavioral risks

They arise in the process of the organization’s activities, caused by the interaction between risk subjects, having a subjective nature and aimed at changing human behavior.

Its subjects are:

All employees of the organization, including company management;

Third-party specialists operating on contractual terms;

Third parties having an interest in the company’s activities;

Owners of the organization;

Government agencies and other regulatory agencies.

Peculiarity:

Unpredictable;

The consequences of their impact cannot be assessed in advance;

Difficult to identify;

It is impossible to regulate within the limits of manifestation;

They are subjective.