Three groups of methods for making management decisions. The art of making management decisions: non-standard approaches

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Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation

KAZAN NATIONAL RESEARCH TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY named after. A.N. TUPOLEVA-KAI

Branch "Vostok"

Department of Economics and Management

COURSE WORK

by discipline:Management

on the topic:“Methods of making management decisions”

Student: groups 21371

Ivanov E.V.

Checked by: Assoc. Svirina A.A.

Chistopol

Introduction

3.2 Economic methods

Conclusion

Introduction

“Methods of making managerial decisions” is one of the controversial and current topics in management theory.

In modern literature one can find several approaches to studying the decision-making process, but one can talk about this most fully and accurately, adhering to the views of a team of authors led by M.Kh. Meskon, who, having summarized the works of a number of authors and his own personal experience, developed his theory.

Management appeared along with the people. Where at least two people united in an effort to achieve some common goal, the task of coordinating their joint actions arose, the solution of which one of them had to take upon himself. In these conditions, he became a leader, manager, and the other became his subordinate, executor

At all stages of the formation of society, the problem of management was quite acute, and many people tried to solve it, but their works were fragmented and did not constitute a generalized theory.

And only in the second half of the last century, after the victory of the industrial revolution in the West, the situation changed dramatically. Market relations dominated all spheres of social life. Large companies grew like mushrooms after rain, requiring a large number of top and middle level managers capable of making competent rational decisions, able to work with large masses of people who would be free in their actions. Therefore, managers were required to have high professionalism, competence, and the ability to balance their activities with existing laws. As a result, a group of people specifically engaged in management activities appears. These leaders no longer need to hold their subordinates in line with an overbearing hand. The main task becomes painstaking organization and daily production management in order to ensure the greatest profit for the owners of the company. These people became known as managers.

A person can be called a manager only when he makes organizational decisions or implements them through other people. Decision making is one of the components of any management function. The need for decision-making permeates everything a manager does, formulating goals and achieving them. Therefore, understanding the nature of decision making is important for anyone who wants to succeed in the art of management.

The purpose of this work is to reveal the essence of methods for making management decisions, the process and procedure for making them.

The objectives of the work are to describe methods for making management decisions, various approaches to management decisions on the part of managers, analyze factors influencing the process of making management decisions, outline the essence of analysis as the basis for making management decisions, reveal the relevance of the problem in practice using the example of a specific enterprise - JSC " Vyatka trading house.

The subject of the work is management decisions at the enterprise and methods for making them.

Object of work - Joint Stock Company "Vyatka Trading House".

management decision making

1. Methods of making management decisions: theoretical aspect

1.1 The essence of management decisions

It should be remembered that we make almost all everyday decisions without systematic thinking, other decisions, for example, where to go to live after graduating from university, or what lifestyle would suit us - after deliberation that lasts days, months, years. Sometimes due to unconscious psychological factors we place a disproportionate amount of emphasis on individual decisions. For example, some people agonize over buying a pair of shoes for weeks and act impulsively when purchasing a $15,000 car.

However, in management, decision making is a more systematic process than in private life. The rate is often much higher. The private choice of an individual affects mainly the life of his own and the few people associated with him. The manager chooses the course of action not only for himself, but also for the organization and for other employees. People at the top levels of a large organization sometimes make decisions that involve millions of dollars. More importantly, management decisions can affect the lives of many people, at least everyone who works with the decision-maker, and possibly everyone in the organization. One manager can fine an employee for the slightest offense, or fine those who engage in social activities at work. Another manager might decide that being too strict in these matters risks causing morale problems that could result in increased absenteeism, employee turnover, and possibly poor customer service, productivity, and product quality. By refusing administrative penalties, the manager decides that it would be more helpful to have a direct but firm conversation with the employee. However, over time, repeated cases of being late for work and decreased activity due to hectic social activities may force the manager to decide to fire the employee. If an organization is large and influential, its decisions senior managers can change the local environment in a decisive way. Some management decisions literally change the course of history. Important government decisions, e.g. on the use of atomic bomb President Truman fall into this category.

Responsibility for making important organizational decisions is a heavy moral burden, which is especially pronounced at the highest levels of management. However, managers of any rank deal with property that belongs to other people, and through it they influence their lives. If a manager decides to fire a subordinate, the latter may suffer greatly. If a bad employee is left unchecked, the organization can suffer, negatively impacting its owners and all employees. Therefore, a leader, as a rule, cannot make ill-considered decisions. Before understanding how a manager can act more rationally and systematically, it is necessary to become more familiar with the universality of decision-making, its organic connection with the management process and some characteristics of organizational decisions.

1.2 Methodology and decision-making methods

The effectiveness of management depends on the integrated application of many factors, and not least on the procedure for making decisions and their practical implementation. But in order for a management decision to be effective and efficient, certain methodological principles must be observed.

In order to make a management decision, each manager must have a good understanding not only of the conceptual apparatus, but also be sufficiently skilled in applying in practice:

· methodology management decision;

· methods for developing management decisions;

· organizing the development of management decisions;

· assessment of the quality of management decisions.

Let's try to briefly consider the manager's tools and conceptual apparatus.

The methodology of a management decision is a logical organization of activities to develop a management decision, including the formulation of management goals, the choice of methods for developing solutions, criteria for evaluating options, and drawing up logical schemes for performing operations.

Methods for developing management decisions include methods and techniques for performing operations necessary in developing management decisions. These include methods of analyzing, processing information, choosing options for action, etc.

Organizing the development of a management decision involves streamlining the activities of individual departments and individual employees in the process of developing a solution. Organization is carried out through regulations, standards, organizational requirements, instructions, and responsibilities.

Technology for developing a management decision is a variant of the sequence of operations for developing a solution, selected according to the criteria of the rationality of their implementation, the use of special equipment, personnel qualifications, and specific conditions for performing the work.

The quality of a management decision is a set of properties that a management decision has that meet, to one degree or another, the needs of successfully resolving a problem. For example, timeliness, targeting, specificity.

The object of management decision making is the multifaceted activities of an enterprise, regardless of its form of ownership. In particular, the object of decision making is the following types of activities:

· technical development;

· organization of main and auxiliary production;

· marketing activities;

· economic and financial development;

· organization of wages and bonuses;

· social development;

· management;

· accounting activities;

· staffing;

· other types of activities.

A decision is the result of a choice from a variety of options, alternatives and represents a guide to action based on a developed project or work plan.

The correctness and effectiveness of the decision made is largely determined by the quality of economic, organizational, social and other types of information. Conventionally, all types of information that are used when making a decision can be divided into:

· for incoming and outgoing;

· processed and unprocessed;

· text and graphic;

· constant and variable;

· normative, analytical, statistical;

· primary and secondary;

· directive, distributive, reporting.

The value of the information obtained depends on the accuracy of the task, since a correctly posed task predetermines the need for specific information to make a decision.

Decision making is inherent in any type of activity, and the performance of one person, a group of people or the entire people of a certain state may depend on it. From an economic and managerial point of view, decision making should be considered as a factor in increasing production efficiency. Production efficiency, naturally, in each specific case depends on the quality of the decision made by the manager.

All decisions made in any field of activity can be conditionally classified and divided into decisions: according to the strategy of the enterprise; profit; sales; issues affecting the formation of profits.

Carrying out your functional responsibilities, each manager chooses the most optimal solutions that contribute to the implementation of the assigned task.

Making a decision, as a rule, involves choosing a direction of action, and if the decision is made easily, without special consideration of alternatives, then it is difficult to make a good decision. A good decision imposes a large social burden on the manager and depends on the manager’s psychological preparedness, his experience, and personal qualities.

Decision making is preceded by several stages:

· the emergence of problems on which decisions need to be made;

· selection of criteria by which the decision will be made;

· development and formulation of alternatives;

· selection of the optimal alternative from their sets;

· approval (making) of a decision;

· organization of work to implement the solution - feedback

Criteria for assessing the capabilities of the organizational management structure:

1. Determining the degree of ability of the applied organizational management structure to ensure the receipt of a rate of return.

2. The degree of ability of the existing management structure to create conditions for increasing the rate of profit through scientific and technical progress activities.

3. The degree of ability to quickly respond to changes in demand and take action accordingly.

4. The degree of ability of the organizational management structure to ensure an increase in labor productivity through detailed specialization of social labor and production.

5. The degree of effectiveness of the production control system under a given organizational management structure.

The object for problems to arise can be the final performance indicators of an enterprise (organization). In particular, as a result of the enterprise’s activities, the indicators of the final results of work began to sharply deteriorate (increased production costs, decreased growth in labor productivity and its quality, profit and profitability); and also conflict situations and high staff turnover arose.

With regard to management, all solutions can be classified as:

· organizational;

· programmed;

· unprogrammed;

· rational;

· irrational;

· probabilistic;

· intuitive;

· based on compromise;

· alternative.

From the entire classification, we will try to consider only some solutions. It is known that decision-making is always associated with a certain moral responsibility, depending on the level at which the decision is made. The higher the level of management, the higher the moral responsibility for the decision made.

A management decision establishes the transition from what is available to what should be done over a certain period. In the process of preparing a solution, problems are identified, goals are clarified, alternative solutions are developed, and choices are made. best option and its approval is completed.

Management decisions can be: individual, collegial, collective, strategic (prospective), tactical (immediate), operational.

Organizational decisions are made at all levels of management and are one of the functions of a manager; they are aimed at achieving a set goal or task. They can be programmed or unprogrammed.

A programmed decision is the result of implementing a specific sequence of steps or actions and is made on the basis of a limited number of alternatives.

To find the right ways to solve a problem, a manager should not strive to immediately resolve it, and this is practically impossible, but must take appropriate measures to study the causes of the problem based on available internal and external information.

2. Management decision-making process

2.1 Approaches to decision making

When looking at decision-making processes, there are two things to consider. The first is that making decisions is usually relatively easy. Everything a person does comes down to choosing a direction of action. It's hard to make a good decision. The second point is that decision making is psychological process. We all know from experience that human behavior is not always logical. Sometimes we are driven by logic, sometimes by feelings. It is therefore not surprising that the methods used by a leader to make decisions range from spontaneous to highly logical. The rational approach to decision making is described below, but it is important to remember that the leader is influenced by psychological factors such as social attitudes, accumulated experience and personal values. Next, I will consider the influence of some behavioral factors on the management decision-making process.

Although any particular decision is rarely attributed to any one group, it can be argued that the decision-making process is intuitive, judgmental, or rational in nature.

A purely intuitive decision is a choice made only on the basis of a feeling that it is correct. The decision maker does not consciously weigh the pros and cons of each alternative and does not even need to understand the situation. It's just a person making a choice. Management expert Peter Schoederbeck points out that “while learning how much information about a problem can provide a significant aid to middle managers' decision-making, senior government officials still have to rely on intuitive judgments. Moreover, computers allow management to focus more attention to data, but do not take away time-honored managerial intuitive know-how. “The significant dependence of managers on intuition was confirmed in his research by Professor Mintzberg.

Decisions based on judgment. Such decisions sometimes seem intuitive because their logic is not obvious. A judgment-based decision is a choice based on knowledge or experience. A person uses knowledge of what has happened in similar situations before to predict the outcome of alternative choices in an existing situation. Using common sense, he chooses an alternative that has brought success in the past.

Rational problem solving. Problem solving, like management, is a process, because we're talking about about an endless sequence of interconnected steps. The leader cares not so much about the decision as such, but about everything related to and resulting from it. Solving a problem requires not a single solution, but a set of choices. Therefore, although the problem-solving process can be thought of as having five steps (plus implementation and feedback), the actual number of steps is determined by the problem itself.

1. Diagnosis of the problem. The first step towards solving a problem is a definition or diagnosis, complete and correct. There are two ways to look at the problem. According to one, a problem is a situation when the set goals are not achieved. In other words, you become aware of a problem because something that should have happened does not happen. By doing this, deviations from the norm can be smoothed out. For example, a foreman may determine that the productivity of his site is below normal. This will be reactive control, its necessity is obvious. However, too often managers consider as problems only situations in which something should happen, but does not happen. A problem can also be considered a potential opportunity. For example, actively looking for ways to improve the efficiency of a department, even if things are going well, would be proactive management. In this case, you will become aware of the problem when you realize that there is something that can be done either to improve the process or to capitalize on the opportunity. Management specialist Peter Drucker emphasizes this by pointing out that solving a problem only restores the norm, but results "must be a consequence of taking advantage of opportunities."

2. Formulation of restrictions and decision criteria. When a manager diagnoses a problem in order to make a decision, he must be aware of what exactly can be done about it. Many possible solutions to an organization's problems will not be realistic because either the manager or the organization does not have enough resources to implement the decisions made. In addition, the problem may be caused by forces outside the organization, such as laws that the manager has no power to change. Limitations on corrective actions limit decision-making options. Before moving on to the next stage of the process, the manager must impartially determine the essence of the limitations and only then identify alternatives. It's even worse if an unrealistic course of action is chosen. Naturally, this will aggravate rather than solve the existing problem.

In addition to identifying constraints, the manager needs to determine the standards by which alternative choices will be judged. These standards are usually called decision-making criteria. They act as guidelines for evaluating decisions.

3. Identification of alternatives. The next stage is the formulation of a set of alternative solutions to the problem. Ideally, it is desirable to identify all possible actions that could eliminate the causes of the problem and thereby enable the organization to achieve its goals. However, in practice, a manager rarely has sufficient knowledge or time to formulate and evaluate each alternative. Moreover, considering a large number of alternatives, even if they are all realistic, often leads to confusion. Therefore, the manager typically limits the number of choices to seriously consider only a few alternatives that seem most desirable.

4. Evaluation of alternatives. The next step is to evaluate possible alternatives. When they are identified, a certain preliminary assessment is necessary. Research has shown, however, that both the quantity and quality of alternative ideas increases when initial idea generation (identification of alternatives) is separated from evaluation of the final idea.

This means that only after you have compiled a list of all the ideas should you begin to evaluate each alternative. When evaluating decisions, the manager determines the advantages and disadvantages of each of them, and the possible overall consequences. It is clear that any alternative comes with some negative aspects. Therefore, almost all important management decisions involve a compromise.

To compare decisions, it is necessary to have a standard against which the likely results of each possible alternative can be measured. Such standards are called decision criteria. If any model cannot satisfy one or more of the criteria you have established, it can no longer be considered as a realistic alternative.

However, for example, when buying a car, some of the selection criteria may have a quantitative expression (its cost). And ease of maintenance and visual appeal require the collection of high-quality information. To evaluate and compare maintenance data, you should look at the corresponding ratings in consumer society publications. To do the same with regard to physical attractiveness, you can create your own rating scale, highlighting the classes of very or moderately attractive, having average and below average attractiveness, and unattractive models.

Difficulties can arise at this stage, since it is impossible to compare things if they are not of the same type - it makes no sense to directly compare apples with oranges. All decisions must be expressed in certain forms. It is desirable that this be a form in which the goal is expressed. In business, profit is a constant need and the highest priority, so decisions can be expressed in monetary terms and in the form of an estimate of their impact on profit. In a non-profit organization, the main goal is usually to provide the best possible service at the lowest cost. Therefore, monetary terms can be used to compare the consequences of decisions in similar organizations.

5. Selecting an alternative. If the problem has been correctly defined and alternative solutions have been carefully weighed and evaluated, making a choice, i.e., making a decision is relatively simple. The manager simply chooses the alternative with the most favorable overall consequences. However, if the problem is complex and many trade-offs must be taken into account, or if the information and analysis are subjective, it may be that no alternative is the best choice. In this case main role belongs to good judgment and experience.

Although it is ideal for a manager to achieve an optimal solution, a manager, as a rule, does not dream of such a thing in practice. The manager is inclined towards a solution that he calls "satisfying" rather than "maximizing". Typically, the optimal solution is not discovered due to lack of time and the inability to consider all available information and alternatives. Because of these constraints, a leader will typically choose a course of action that is obviously acceptable but not necessarily the best possible course of action.

Implementation. As Harrison emphasizes: “The real value of solutions only becomes apparent after they are implemented.” The process of solving a problem does not end with choosing an alternative. Simply choosing a course of action has little value to the organization. To resolve a problem or to benefit from an opportunity, a solution must be implemented. The level of effectiveness in implementing a decision will increase if it is accepted by those affected by it. Recognition of a decision is rare, but it is automatic, even if it is clearly a good one.

Sometimes a leader may entrust decision-making to those who will have to carry it out. More often, he is forced to convince other people in the organization of the correctness of his point of view, proving that his choice brings benefit to both the organization and each individual. Some managers consider attempts at persuasion a waste of time, however, the “whether I’m right or wrong, I’m the boss” approach generally doesn’t work in today’s educated world.

The chances of a decision being effectively implemented are greatly increased when the people involved have input into the decision and truly believe in what they are doing. Therefore, a good way to gain acceptance for a decision is to involve other people in the decision-making process. It is up to the leader to choose who should decide. However, there are situations when a manager is forced to make a decision without consulting others. Employee participation in decision making, like any other management method, will not be effective in every situation.

Moreover, firm support in itself does not guarantee proper implementation of the decision. Full implementation of decisions requires the activation of the entire management process, especially its organizing and motivational functions.

Feedback. Another phase included in the process of making a management decision and beginning after the decision has taken effect is the establishment of feedback. According to Harrison: "A tracking and control system is necessary to ensure that actual results are consistent with those that the manager hoped to obtain. Feedback - that is, information about what happened before and after the decision was implemented - allows the manager to adjust it until the organization significant damage has been caused. Management's assessment of the decision is carried out primarily through the control function.

2.2 Analysis and management decisions

In conditions market economy the degree of uncertainty in the economic behavior of market entities is quite high. In this regard, methods of prospective analysis become of great practical importance when it is necessary to make management decisions, assessing possible situations and making a choice from several alternative options.

Theoretically, there are four types of situations in which it is necessary to analyze and make management decisions, including at the enterprise level: in conditions of certainty, risk, uncertainty, conflict. Let's consider each of these cases.

1. Analysis and adoption of management decisions in conditions of certainty.

This is the simplest case: the quantity is known possible situations(options) and their outcomes. You need to choose one of the possible options. The degree of complexity of the selection procedure in this case is determined only by the number of alternative options. Let's consider two possible situations:

a) There are two possible options: n=2.

In this case, the analyst must choose (or recommend choosing) one of two possible options. The sequence of actions here is as follows:

· the criterion by which the choice will be made is determined;

· the “direct counting” method calculates the criterion values for the compared options;

Various methods for solving this problem are possible. As a rule, they are divided into two groups:

1. Methods based on discounted valuations;

2. Methods based on accounting estimates.

The first group of methods is based on the following idea. Cash income received by the enterprise at different points in time should not be summed up directly; Only the elements of the given flow can be summed up. If we denote F1,F2 ,....,Fn - the projected cash flow by year, then i-th element given cash flow Pi is calculated using the formula:

Pi = Fi / (1+ r)i

where r is the discount factor.

The purpose of the discount factor is the temporal ordering of future cash receipts (income) and bringing them to the current point in time. Economic sense this representation is as follows: the significance of the predicted value of cash receipts in i years (Fi) from the current position will be less than or equal to Pi. This also means that for an investor, the amount Pi at a given time and the amount Fi after i years are identical in value. Using this formula, it is possible to bring into a comparable form an assessment of future income expected to be received over a number of years. In this case, the discount factor is numerically equal to the interest rate set by the investor, i.e. the relative amount of return that an investor wants or can receive on the capital he invests.

So, the sequence of actions of the analyst is as follows (calculations are performed for each alternative):

· the amount of required investment is calculated (expert assessment), IC;

· profit (cash receipts) is estimated by year Fi;

· the value of the discount factor, r, is set;

· the elements of the reduced flow, Pi, are determined;

· the net present value (NPV) is calculated using the formula:

· NPV values are compared;

· preference is given to the option that has a higher NPV (a negative NPV value indicates the economic inexpediency of this option).

The second group of methods continues to be used in calculating predicted values of F. One of the most simple methods this group - calculation of the payback period of the investment. The sequence of actions of the analyst in this case is as follows:

· the amount of required investment, IC, is calculated;

· profit (cash receipts) is estimated by year, Fi;

· choose the option whose cumulative profit will pay back the investment made in fewer years.

b) The number of alternatives is more than two n > 2

The procedural side of the analysis becomes significantly more complicated due to the multiplicity of options; the “direct counting” technique is practically not applicable in this case. The most convenient computing apparatus is optimal programming methods (in this case, this term means “planning”. There are many of these methods (linear, nonlinear, dynamic, etc.), but in practice, only linear programming has become relatively famous in economic research. In particular, let’s consider transport problem, as an example of choosing the optimal option from a set of alternatives. The essence of the problem is as follows.

There are n points of production of some product (a1,a2,...,an) and k points of its consumption (b1,b2,....,bk), where ai is the volume of output of the i-th production point, bj is the volume consumption of the jth consumption point. We consider the simplest, so-called “closed problem”, when the total volumes of production and consumption are equal. Let cij be the cost of transporting a unit of production. It is required to find the most rational scheme for attaching suppliers to consumers, minimizing the total costs of transporting products. Obviously, the number of alternative options here can be very large, which excludes the use of the “direct counting” method. So you need to solve the following problem:

E E Cg Xg -> min

E Xg = bj E Xg = bj Xg >= 0

There are various ways to solve this problem - the distribution method of potentials, etc. As a rule, a computer is used for calculations.

When carrying out analysis under conditions of certainty, machine simulation methods that involve multiple calculations on a computer can be successfully used. In this case, a simulation model of an object or process (computer program) is built containing bth number factors and variables, the values of which vary in different combinations. Thus, machine imitation is an experiment, but not in real, but in artificial conditions. Based on the results of this experiment, one or more options are selected, which are the basis for making the final decision based on additional formal and informal criteria.

Analysis and adoption of management decisions under risk conditions. This situation occurs most often in practice. Here they use a probabilistic approach, which involves predicting possible outcomes and assigning probabilities to them. In this case they use:

a) known, typical situations (such as the probability of a coat of arms appearing when throwing a coin is 0.5);

b) previous probability distributions (for example, from sample surveys or statistics of previous periods, the probability of the appearance of a defective part is known);

c) subjective assessments made by the analyst independently or with the assistance of a group of experts.

The sequence of actions of the analyst in this case is as follows:

· possible outcomes Ak, k = 1,2,....., n are predicted;

· each outcome is assigned a corresponding probability pk, with E pk = 1

· a criterion is selected (for example, maximizing the mathematical expectation of profit);

· an option is selected that satisfies the selected criterion.

Example: there are two investment objects with the same forecast amount of required capital investments. The amount of planned income in each case is uncertain and is given in the form of a probability distribution:

Then the mathematical expectation of income for the projects under consideration will be correspondingly equal to:

Y (Yes) = 0 . 10 * 3000 + ......+ 0 . 10 * 5000 = 4000

Y (db) = 0 . 10 * 2000 +.......+ 0 . 10 * 8000 = 4250

Thus, Project B is preferable. It should, however, be noted that this project is also relatively more risky, since it has a greater variation compared to project A (the range of variation of project A is 2000, project B is 6000).

In more complex situations, the analysis uses the so-called decision tree method. Let's look at the logic of this method using an example.

Example: a manager needs to decide on the advisability of purchasing machine M1 or machine M2. The M2 machine is more economical, which provides higher income per unit of production, but at the same time it is more expensive and requires relatively higher overhead costs:

The decision-making process can be carried out in several stages:

Stage 1. Determining the goal.

Maximization of the mathematical expectation of profit is chosen as the criterion.

Stage 2. Defining a set of possible actions for consideration and analysis (controlled by the decision maker)

The manager can choose one of two options:

a1 = (purchase of machine M1)

a2 = (purchase of machine M2)

Stage 3. Assessment of possible outcomes and their probabilities (they are random).

The manager evaluates possible options for annual demand for products and their corresponding probabilities as follows:

x1 = 1200 units with probability 0. 4

x2 = 2000 units with probability 0. 6

Stage 4. Estimation of the mathematical expectation of possible income:

E (Yes) = 9000 * 0. 4 + 25000 * 0 . 6 = 18600

E (db) = 7800 * 0. 4 + 27000 * 0 . 6 = 19320

Thus, the option of purchasing an M2 machine is more economically feasible.

Analysis and adoption of management decisions under conditions of uncertainty. This situation has been developed in theory, but in practice formalized analysis algorithms are used quite rarely. The main difficulty here is that it is impossible to estimate the probabilities of outcomes. The main criterion - profit maximization - does not work here, so other criteria are used:

· maximin (maximization of minimum profit)

· minimax (minimization of maximum losses)

· maximax (maximization of maximum profit), etc.

Analysis and adoption of management decisions in conditions of conflict. The most complex and little developed analysis from a practical point of view. Similar situations are considered in game theory. Of course, in practice, this and the previous situations occur quite often. In such cases, they try to reduce them to one of the first two situations or use informal methods to make decisions.

Estimates obtained as a result of the application of formalized methods are only the basis for making a final decision; in this case, additional criteria, including those of an informal nature, may be taken into account.

3. Making management decisions at JSC “Vyatka Trading House”

3.1 Organizational and administrative methods

Let us first consider organizational and administrative methods (ORM).

ORM are divided into 2 types: organizational-stabilizing and methods of administrative influence.

The former, in turn, are divided into 3 more types:

1. Methods of organizational regulation. These include various documents regulating the work of any company, in our case - JSC "Vyatka Trading House", i.e. they establish the basic regulations for the functioning of the system: the relationship between the managed and control subsystems, determine the order of functioning of the system itself and its elements, their subordination consolidates certain functions. For example, the charter of a joint-stock company. The regulations on departments assign certain functions to them, and also ensure the subordination of some services to others. To this same group I would include job descriptions, which also establish the subordination, connections and responsibilities of managers and ordinary performers.

2. Methods of organizational regulation. These methods serve as the basis for production and management processes. Methods of organizational regulation are also divided into smaller groups.

2.1. Nomenclature and classification standards. These at JSC "Vyatka Trading House" include the nomenclature and classification directory used in accounting. Its main purpose is to assign each type of raw material and component its own code, which makes it easier to account for them. Another example is the provision on a mandatory assortment of food products in the Cheap store chain. His task is to establish mandatory list food products that must be constantly on sale.

2.2. Organizational and technical standards. As organizational and technical standards, we can highlight GOSTs used at the enterprise, certificates of conformity of product quality to the required level of quality.

2.3. Operational calendar standards. From the operational calendar standards, the provisions on the document flow scheme, the procedure for issuing, receiving and paying for goods, etc. are applied.

2.4. Organizational and structural standards: regulations on the organizational structure of the company, OSUP, staffing table.

2.5. Administrative and organizational. Administrative and organizational rules include internal labor regulations, rules for granting leave, retirement, etc.

3. Methods of methodological instruction. Among the methods of methodological instruction, I can include the provision on accounting policies and accounting at a joint stock company, which determines the procedure and list of accounting accounts used, the procedure for determining the volume of sales, etc. This also includes industry-specific guidelines for planning, accounting and calculating the cost of products in trade, various instructions on the procedure for paying taxes, on non-cash payments, on the procedure for conducting cash transactions in the Russian Federation, etc.

Methods of administrative influence are applied in addition to methods of organizational-stabilizing influence. This surgical methods with a short time lag. They act in the dynamics of system development. The main task of these methods is to bring the control object into an optimal operating mode in case of deviations from the required state.

I would include various orders as methods of administrative influence, for example, on hiring and dismissal in connection with staff reduction in a joint stock company (cause certain legal and legal consequences); an order to move the sales department to a new premises or an order to provide a report on the work done by January 1, 1998 are examples of binding documents; Prohibitory purposes in joint stock companies are served, for example, by orders on the list of documents constituting a trade secret, on a ban on smoking in places not designated for this purpose.

3.2 Economic methods

Let us now consider economic management methods. This is the second close-up view management methods in our classification. Economic management methods are understood as a set of ways to influence the economic (material) interests of the management object (employee). These methods at JSC Vyatka Trading House have the following features:

1. Material interest acts as a motivational factor.

2. Indirect nature of the impact (act through a system of restrictions and incentives).

3. They introduce an element of self-regulation into the system.

5. Makes it possible to predict the potential reaction of the control object to the control influence of the control subject.

6. It is possible to quantitatively measure the results of the impact of this group of methods.

7. Strategic nature.

The mechanisms for implementing economic methods may be different. One of effective forms Carrying out this group of life methods can be a self-supporting relationship. But self-financing is not used in JSC Vyatka Trading House. Among the remaining methods, we can highlight a bonus system for labor results, as well as the payment of a certain percentage of the amount of goods sold to stimulate merchandisers.

3.3 Social-psychological methods

Social-psychological methods constitute the third and last major group of methods in our classification. They are understood as a group of methods aimed at a combination of social interests and psychological characteristics of the individual (employee). Thus, these methods affect social processes flowing in labor collectives and interpersonal relationships and connections.

At JSC "Vyatka Trading House" these methods are not so clearly presented. Of the social management methods, most of them are conditioned by state guarantees (work hours, establishment of a retirement age). At JSC social methods presented in the following forms:

Socio-economic (labor regulation, safety requirements, establishing productivity standards, distribution of people depending on the intensity of work, guarantee of a minimum salary, increasing productivity through the introduction of new technology);

Social (organization of meals for workers in the Khlynov restaurant (of course, at appropriate prices), regulation of women’s labor);

Socio-political (equality for everyone regardless of party affiliation or political leanings);

Social and personal (identifying informal leaders in teams, identifying capable workers who can occupy leadership positions in the future and organizing the development of their management skills);

Socio-demographic (formation of team structure, provision of parental leave);

Socio-cultural (organization of recreation for people in rest homes, dispensaries, and sports complexes).

Psychological methods used at JSC "Vyatka Trading House" include speeches by the general director to management personnel in order to push to achieve certain results, to reward the manager for a job well done (methods of psychological motivation).

The plant also uses psychological methods to humanize labor (air conditioning, safe computer monitors, comfortable workplace). When hiring for some positions, psychological suitability is also checked (professional selection methods).

Conclusion

Summarizing our work, we can draw the following conclusions:

Management decision making is a very important factor in the activities of any modern company. Without correct management decisions and effective leadership, the economic prosperity of a company is hardly possible.

There are a large number of different methods for making management decisions. With regard to management, all solutions can be classified as:

· organizational;

· programmed;

· unprogrammed;

· rational;

· irrational;

· probabilistic;

· decisions under conditions of uncertainty;

· intuitive;

· based on compromise;

· alternative.

All these methods are, to one degree or another, reflected in the decision-making process at the Vyatka Trading House Joint Stock Company. JSC “Vyatka Trading House” has its own classification of decision-making methods. The most developed methods of decision-making in this company are such as organizational and administrative methods, economic methods and socio-psychological methods. The use of these methods allowed the enterprise to operate efficiently and make a profit.

List of used literature

1. Andrushkiv B.M., Kuzmin O.E. Fundamentals of management. Lvov: “Svit”, 1995.

2. Vesnin V.R. Fundamentals of Management: Textbook. - M.: Publishing house "Triada. Ltd", 1996.

3. Vikhansky O.S., Naumov A.I. Management: person, strategy, organization, process: 2nd ed.: Textbook. - M.: Firm "Gardarika", 1996.

4. Gerchikova I.N. Management. Moscow, “Banks and Barges”, UNITY Publishing Association, 1995.

5. Golubkov E.P. What decision should I make? Moscow "Economy", 1990.

6. Grove S. Andrew Highly effective management. Moscow, 1996.

7. Kokhno P.A. and others. Management. M.: Finance and Statistics, 1993.

8. Lebedev O.T. Fundamentals of management. St. Petersburg Publishing House "MiM", 1997.

9. Lyubimova N.G. Management is the path to success. Moscow, 1992.

10. Makarov S.F. Manager at work. Moscow, 1989.

11. Management of the organization. / Edited by Z.P. Rumyantseva. Moscow, 1996.

12. Reilyan Y.R. Analytical basis for making management decisions. M.: 1991.

13. Romashchenko V.N. Decision making: situations and advice. Kyiv: Politizdat of Ukraine, 1990.

14. Satskov N.Ya. Methods and techniques of activity of managers and businessmen. St. Petersburg, 1993.

15. Utkin E.A. Company management. - M.: “Akalis”, 1996.

16. Fatkhutdinov R.A. Development of a management solution. Moscow: "Intel-synthesis", 1997.

17. Fatkhutdinov R.A. Strategic management: Textbook. - M.: "Intel-Sintez", 1997.

18. Tsygichko V.N. To the manager - about decision making. M.: INFRA-M, 1996.

19. Shegda A.V. Fundamentals of management. Moscow, 1998.

20. Eddowes M., Stansfield R. Methods of decision making / Peru from English, Ed. I.I. Eliseeva. - M.: Banks and exchanges, 1994.

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Algorithm for solving any problem

Low sales, staff turnover, decreased profitability of the enterprise, negative customer feedback - all these are problems that need to be solved (see, for example, how to make a sales forecast in Excel ). Each manager comes from his own range of knowledge, experience, functionality and authority in order to find the most effective solution that will bring maximum benefit.

The higher the manager’s level of responsibility, the more complex the tasks to be solved. Therefore, to find a management solution, a certain algorithm of actions is used. It has long been formalized, tested in practice, and most successful teams work on it.

The management decision-making algorithm consists of the following points:

1. Describe the problem, everything that is not satisfactory in the current circumstances, how the company works, how the staff works, what results they achieve.

2. Describe what you want to get and how to change the situation. In a word - set a goal. Increase sales, reduce staff turnover by 90%, to win 50% of the market. The clearer it is indicated and the more detailed the tasks that need to be completed are spelled out, the easier it will be to make the right management decision. If the goals are vague, then development will take an unlimited amount of time, because each participant in this work will not understand what he needs to do.

3. Gather information that is relevant to the problem at hand. It is necessary to collect as much information as possible. What task needs to be solved, what is available, what needs to be acquired, what skills and competencies do the staff have, what working conditions accompany the movement towards the goal. To do this, it is necessary to answer in detail the questions - what does the enterprise own, where is it located, where and how to obtain additional resources, whether there are already similar projects in the company or among competitors, or in world practice. The second important stage of working with data is their analysis, critical understanding, removal of excess, ranking into main and secondary. Here you need to focus on what is needed for the job and what can be cut off.

4. Develop several management solutions. It is necessary to choose exactly how they will be developed, what mechanics will be used. Each goal requires its own development method. If the method is chosen incorrectly, you can develop the wrong action plan, or not develop it at all.

5. Select and implement the management decision made. It should include details of who does, how, when, where and what, and with what. The decision is usually made by the responsible person, who defines the goal, breaks the entire set of tasks into separate segments, divides them among the performers, provides them with the means for execution and controls its implementation.

6. Adjust the decision based on the results of the established period of work. The faster changes are made, the more manageable the system is. This is what feedback is for. After starting work on a new management plan, it is necessary to collect data again, analyze it and adjust the work, taking into account the methods of making management decisions. Ideally, this process never stops. Data is always being collected, always being analyzed, and new behaviors are always being developed.

Next, we’ll talk about what methods are used to develop management decisions. Theoretical science divides methods of making management decisions into two types - formalized and informal. There are also mixed ones, when the first two are used in different proportions.

Formalized methods for making management decisions

In short, formalized methods of making management decisions are based on mathematics. The main way of working is modeling reality and analyzing it.

Formalized methods include the development of economic and mathematical models that make it possible to detect and describe parts of a single system within which a problem exists. They also include expert opinions of qualified specialists who can give reasonable forecasts about how events will develop, what factors will have an impact, what phenomena will influence events.

These methods are suitable for structured problems that can be solved based on statistics and other quantitative indicators.

Let us briefly list the main groups of management decision-making methods identified by practicing scientists:

1. Statistical methods. The world has accumulated a huge amount of statistical data that can be used when searching for an adequate management solution. If the initial set of data in the company coincides with the existing one, then with a high degree of probability, events will develop in the same way. This means that we need to focus on similar experience. In addition, statistical data can be obtained both during the enterprise’s own work and during statistical modeling. These methods include the statistical test method and sequential analysis. In the first case, the situation is modeled in virtual space, in the second, several hypotheses are sequentially tested.

2. Analytical methods. Their peculiarity is that between the conditions of the problem and the solution to the problem there is a well-known formula. That is, in essence, it is just an equation in which you need to select the right variables in order to get normal result. This group of methods includes probability theory, which studies random phenomena and finds patterns in them. There is also the theory of queuing; it is intended for tasks that arise in mass and regular processes. To describe random processes in time, the theory of Markov chains is used.

3. Methods of mathematical programming. They are used to create the most rational plan of action and optimal placement of the resources that the enterprise currently has. These methods are suitable for problems with many variables, actions, the outcome of which is unknown in advance. These include network planning, dynamic, linear and nonlinear programming. Network planning is used when there are many interrelated actions, and the problem needs to be solved as quickly and efficiently as possible. Linear programming – in the case when the conditions for executing the plan can be described by a system of nonlinear equations. If the dependencies are nonlinear, then the nonlinear method is used. If the action plan consists of several stages that are dependent on each other, then the dynamic method is used.

4. To make management decisions under conditions of uncertainty, game-theoretic methods are used - the theory of statistical decisions and game theory. The first theory is suitable for solving problems of an objective nature in an uncertain external environment. If this uncertainty is created deliberately, for example, in competitive struggle, when no one knows what the competitor is up to, then game theory is used.

Informal and mixed methods of making management decisions

Non-formalized methods include those methods that are used in cases where the mathematical apparatus is not applicable. They include:

brainstorming and its analogues ( Gordon's method, “635”, “collective notebook” and others). Differing in details, they all use group work in conditions of collective discussion and search. various options actions, even the most unexpected, controversial or unrealistic;
free associations, when the usual associative series of approaches to a problem are broken and new, previously ignored approaches are formed;
Zwicky's morphological analysis - consists of breaking a complex task into a combination of small and easy-to-achieve tasks;
the analogy method, when an object under study with unknown properties is studied by analogy with the work of a known object;
inversion method, when in the course of work the formulation of the question is changed to the opposite, the problem is turned upside down. This helps to get rid of the standard approach, to get out of the “unrealistic” impasse.

Mixed methods include

expert method, when a solution is developed by a group of experts under conditions of uncertainty, without the possibility of constructing a mathematical model for problems of an economic and scientific nature, or when working on issues of increased complexity. This includes the heuristic forecasting method and the scenario method;
SWOT analysis consists in identifying strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, as well as building a system of actions based on the data obtained.
A decision tree is used when working on complex systems with great uncertainty, when the process is divided into several branches, and each branch indicates a solution and a possible outcome.

What are the possible mistakes when making management decisions?

Errors and problems always arise; there are no ideal or unique right decisions. We list the most common problems that arise in the process of making management decisions:

1. Goal setting. The goal must be clear, achievable, measurable, adequate, with a specific deadline for implementation. Become the best company- this is not the goal. Making a hundred million dollars is the goal.

2. Incorrect time management. On the one hand, too short a deadline impairs the quality of information and its analysis; on the other hand, if the work takes too long, its relevance is lost.

3. Insufficient qualification of the team. Arrogance, overestimation of competence, neglect of analytical data on the market, ignoring the experience of competitors, competition between decision makers, incorrect choice of management decision-making model.

4. Perfectionism. A good working solution is better than an ideal one that is constantly being developed but not implemented.

5. Lack of feedback. The adopted action plan needs correction, but this is often forgotten, preferring to follow the regulations once developed. As a result, the problem becomes more complex and more resources are required to resolve it.

6. Paradoxical traps. This is a purely psychological problem that prevents us from taking and implementing adequate actions. A tendency to take excessive risks, groundless reliance on an unlikely favorable outcome of events and other paradoxes of human choice. There are a huge number of them, you can mention the Monty Hall paradox about three doors and a prize, the St. Petersburg paradox about the maximum contribution and the possibility of endless winnings, the “survivor's mistake”, when they focus on one positive example, ignoring a thousand negative ones. This also includes all methods of management decisions based on subjective experience or self-confidence - “I think I’m right,” “I want it this way,” “I’ll be lucky,” “the main thing is to start, and then we’ll figure it out.” Conservatism “it has always been this way” is also a bad assistant in management.

Management decision-making methods are specific ways in which a problem can be solved. There are quite a lot of them, for example:

1. decomposition - presentation of a complex problem as a set of simple questions;
2. diagnostics - searching for the most relevant problem important details which are resolved first. This method is used when resources are limited.

It is necessary to distinguish between methods of making management decisions based on mathematical modeling and methods based on psychological techniques of working in groups.

Methods for making management decisions based on mathematical modeling

Expert methods for making management decisions. An expert is a person whom a decision maker or analytical group conducting an examination considers to be a sufficiently high-level professional in some matter. Experts are invited to conduct an examination.

Expertise is the carrying out by a group of competent specialists of measuring certain characteristics in order to prepare a decision. Expertise reduces the risk of making an erroneous decision. Typical problems requiring examination: determining the goals facing the management object (searching for new markets, changing the management structure); forecasting; scenario development; generating alternative solutions; making collective decisions, etc.

Experts identify the following main stages of examination:

1. formulation of the purpose of the examination;
2. construction of assessment objects or their characteristics (this stage may not exist, but this means that it has simply already been completed);
3. formation of an expert group;
4. determining the method of expert assessment and the way experts express their assessments;
5. carrying out an examination;
6. processing and analysis of its results;
7. repeated rounds of examination, if there is a need to clarify or converge the experts’ opinions;
8. generation of recommendations options.

When conducting examinations, expert assessments are used, which come in several types. Let's give brief description each type of expert assessment.

A quantitative expression of preference (assessment) is a comparison of the values of different assessments according to the principle: by how much or how many times one assessment is greater than the other.

The following scales are used: relationships (for example, when comparing the ratio of car brands to price); intervals (for example, the sign “date of release” or temperature on different temperature scales); differences (for example, chronology); absolute (for example, the number of students in the classroom). Quantitative assessments usually correspond to objective measurements of objective indicators.

Scores characterize subjective opinions. An example would be school grades. The values of the point scale are a limited range of numbers equidistant from each other. There are two types of scoring. Assessments of the first type are made according to an objective criterion, according to a generally accepted standard. These include grades in sports refereeing or rules for assigning work grades - these are grades on a point scale. Point assessments of the second type are assessments made in cases where generally accepted assessment criteria are absent. In this case, we talk about an ordinal (or rank) scale. Ratings made on a ranking scale are compared only in terms of “more - less”. The ranking scale is used in cooking when comparing the taste of different dishes.

Ranking is the ordering of objects in descending order of their preference. In this case, it is allowed to indicate the equivalence of certain objects (for example, determining the winners of a competition, identifying the best, reliable banks).

Pairwise comparison -- specifying the preferred object in each pair of objects. Sometimes it is permissible to declare o6oirx objects as equivalent or incomparable (for example, chocolate is preferable to ice cream, chocolate is preferable to a cake, ice cream is preferable to a cake).

Verbal-numeric scales are used to obtain and process qualitative expert information using quantitative methods.

The Delphi method got its name from the Greek city of Delphi, whose priests were famous for their ability to predict the future (Delphic oracles). The method is characterized by three main features: anonymity, regulated feedback, group response. Anonymity is achieved by using special questionnaires or other methods of individual questioning. Regulated feedback is provided through several rounds of surveys. The results of each round are processed using statistical methods and reported to experts. The result of processing individual ratings is group ratings. The method is based on the following premises:

1. the questions posed must allow answers in the form of numbers;
2. experts must be sufficiently informed;
3. Each expert’s answer must be justified by him.

Below is a description of an example use of the Delphi method.

First round. The first questionnaire is distributed to the experts who do not know each other. It can allow any answers to the questions posed in it related to solving the problem. The purpose of this questionnaire is to compile a list of events for forecasting in some area of the economy or industry national economy, science and technology, etc. The organizer of the examination combines the forecasts received. The resulting combined list of events becomes the basis of the second questionnaire.

Second round. Experts estimate the timing of events and give reasons why they consider their assessments correct. Based on the assessments made and their justifications, the organizer of the examination, sometimes together with mathematicians, carries out statistical processing of the data obtained, groups the opinions of experts, and studies extreme points of view. The results of this work of the organizer are communicated to experts who can change their opinion (the work of experts is carried out anonymously). Usually the opinion of a minority of experts (extreme points of view) is conveyed to the opinion of the majority. The majority must either agree with this decision or reject it.

Third round. The experts are given a third questionnaire, which contains a list of events, statistical characteristics, dates of occurrence of events, summary data (arguments) about the reasons for earlier or later assessments. Experts must consider all arguments; formulate new estimates of the expected date of occurrence of each event; justify your point of view if it deviates significantly from the group’s; anonymously comment on opposing opinions. Revised estimates and new arguments are returned to the organizer, who processes them again, sums up all the arguments and prepares a new forecast on this basis.

Fourth round. Experts get acquainted with the new group forecast, arguments, criticisms and make a new forecast. If the group still cannot come to a consensus and the organizer is interested in the arguments of both sides, then he can gather experts for a face-to-face discussion.

If the majority does not agree with the opinion of the organizer, his arguments are transferred to the minority and analyzed. This process is repeated until all experts come to the same opinion, or groups are identified that do not change their decision.

Non-expert methods of making management decisions. The non-specialist method is a method in which the issue is solved by persons who have never dealt with this problem, but are specialists in related fields.

Linear programming is a method in which optimization problems are solved in which the objective function and functional constraints are linear functions with respect to variables that take any value from a certain set of values. One example of linear programming problems is the transportation problem.

Simulation modeling is a method of forming a decision in which the decision maker comes to a reasonable compromise in the values of various criteria. In this case, the computer, according to a given program, simulates and reproduces the flow of the process under study with several possible control options assigned to it, the results obtained are analyzed and evaluated.

The method of probability theory is a non-expert method.

The game theory method is a method in which problems are solved under conditions of complete uncertainty. This means the presence of conditions under which the process of carrying out an operation is uncertain or the enemy is consciously counteracting, or there are no clear and precise goals and objectives of the operation. The consequence of this uncertainty is that the success of an operation depends not only on the decisions of the people making them, but also on the decisions or actions of other people. "Most often, with the help of this method, it is necessary to resolve conflict situations. Thus, game theory is the theory of mathematical models of decision-making in conditions of conflict. Problems that are solved using the game theory method include the following: trading operations; analysis and design hierarchical structures management and economic mechanisms; competition. Game theory is designed to provide solutions to games that are played only once. In the event that the situation repeats itself, it is more advisable to use statistical methods.

Method of analogies - search possible solutions problems based on borrowing from other management objects.

Methods for making management decisions based on creative thinking (psychological methods)

The creative thinking process has five stages:

1. Preparation - collection of factual data. Convergent (analytical) thinking is used. Problem defined

from different sides, in different formulations.

2. Mental effort - the use of divergent thinking, which leads either to a possible solution to the problem or to frustration (disappointment). (Frustration is an important factor and is usually followed by the generation of really good ideas.)
3. Incubation - the problem remains in the subconscious, while the person is busy with other things. During this time, emotional inhibition and resistance to new ideas weakens, and the opportunity arises to perceive new ideas that may arise during this time.
4. Insight is a “flash” that makes it possible to solve the problem under consideration.
5. Evaluation - analysis of all ideas obtained in the previous stages.

The preparation and evaluation stages require analytical thinking, and mental effort, incubation and insight require creative freedom and uninhibitedness.

The expression of all sorts of crazy ideas is encouraged, the goal of the methods used is quantity of ideas, not quality. With an abundance of ideas, new ideas become developments of previously expressed ones. The key to successful creative thinking is to intelligently and purposefully separate the processes of idea generation and evaluation.

One of the most common methods of creative thinking for a manager is the “Brainstorming” method, or “ Brainstorming"("Brainstorm"). Unlike methods aimed at finding the only correct solution to a problem, the meaning of the Brainstorming method is for employees to offer the maximum number of ideas without evaluating or selecting them.

A manager can use Brainstorming:

1. to find an innovative solution;
2. at the beginning of the meeting to “break the ice” between the participants;
3. to strengthen the team.

There are two ways to conduct a Brainstorm: oral and written. Preference is given to oral, as it takes less time, but written is more thorough.

To conduct a successful Brainstorming session, a manager must follow certain rules:

1. it is necessary to adhere to strict time frames. This means that it should be short (30 minutes for the oral method, 1 hour for the written method);
2. the number of participants should be optimal: 6 -- 12 people. (with the oral method) and 8 - 12 people. (in writing);
3. it is necessary to involve as many different people as possible, but it should be remembered that the presence of senior management can interfere;
4. It is better to sit in a semicircle and not at tables (with the oral method) or at tables arranged in the form of some Latin letter (with the written method). The chairman can sit anywhere, and the administrator must stand at the poster (if the oral method is used). These functions can be performed by one person (in writing).

As practice shows, in one session lasting 1 hour you can get more than 200 ideas (in writing); in one oral session lasting 30 minutes, an experienced group can put forward up to 200 ideas.

The problem is considered and ideas are generated in an atmosphere of relaxation and ease. Judgment is avoided and all ideas, especially crazy ones, are encouraged. It is precisely such ideas that, in essence, serve as starting points for developing something new that is of great practical importance. Ideas are freely expressed and there is a friendly exchange of opinions.

The advantage of this method is that it is free from bias, routine, stereotypes in thinking, fear of criticism and skepticism from management. Experience with this method shows that it is easier for non-experts to generate ideas because they are able to think outside the box. All ideas and suggestions are taken into account regardless of authorship.

The main goal is to develop the maximum possible number of options for solving the problem.

The main disadvantage of the Brainstorming method is the fact that you have to evaluate all the ideas, and many of them are quite stupid or completely irrelevant to the issue at hand, and they have to be discarded in order to retain the few that are really valuable.

In the oral method, the organizer, who is also the chairman, is obliged to:

1. stop the discussion if everyone is talking at the same time;
2. allow “quiet” participants to speak;
3. do not allow statements to be evaluated;
4. at different stages of the meeting, formulate the problem statement again and again;
5. ensure that the administrator writes down every new idea;
6. have ready-made proposals in case of pauses;
7. review ideas when their flow dries up;
8. end the meeting.

The administrator is obliged:

1. write down every idea;
2. compose them summary for inclusion in the general list;
3. ask participants what exactly they mean;
4. never ignore an idea, even if you feel that it repeats something previously expressed;
5. do not express your ideas.

When implementing this method in writing, the organizer at the stage of presenting information and instruction must do the following:

1. choose the right meeting location and equipment;
2. select a group of participants with a broad outlook. At the same time, it is not recommended to invite those who are overly skeptical. You cannot invite outside observers, as well as employees who differ greatly in their official status;

The sequence of actions of the manager-instructor when organizing a “brainstorming”:

1. statement of the problem. The instructor should cover the goals of brainstorming and the goals of problem solving. He must list the existing resource limitations and describe the achievements that have already been made in this area;
2. proposal of ideas. First, there should be an individual approach, in which each participant thinks independently, followed by a group stage, during which participants express a variety of thoughts;
3. selection of ideas by the manager-instructor. The proposed ideas are studied and selected. Ideas are selected for subsequent detailing and elaboration. These ideas are transformed into the most convenient form for discussion;
4. organization of in-depth development of selected ideas by all brainstorming participants. At this stage, detailed development of constructive conclusions and proposals occurs.

The Synectics method is quite widely used in management. With this method, similar to the previous one, the problem is considered by a group of about 9 people. The “client”, who is also a manager-instructor, puts forward a problem, explains it, and the “students” offer a solution. For several minutes the “client” analyzes him and says what he likes and what he doesn’t. New proposals are then put forward and analyzed until a possible solution is found. The periods of time during which this method is carried out are called "sessions".

Another method of creative thinking for a manager when making decisions is “Partitioning”. With this method, a list of the main characteristics of an idea or object is compiled and each of them is considered with the aim of improvement. Typically this method is used in relation to material (material) objects. Each characteristic is studied and changes are proposed.

A widely used method of creative thinking is a method called “Forced Relationships.” This method takes objects or ideas and asks the question: “How many different combinations of them are possible to obtain a new object or idea?” This method is used, for example, in the development of new furniture models.

The “Morphological Analysis” method is very well known and widely used today. In this method, all the variables are entered into a matrix and an attempt is made to combine them in a new way. For example, if you need new form transport, you can make a list of variables. In a simplified form, the matrix has next view: the left column lists the objects of influence, and the top line lists possible methods of influence (events). Then the free cells are filled with possible effects on the object using any variants of this method. The advantage of this method is that it is possible to purposefully form both objects of influence and methods of influence, and then systematically explore various options.

Another method used in management is “Lateral Thinking and RO”. If a problem is studied analytically and it is necessary to dive deeper into it and go into greater detail, we are talking about vertical thinking. Creative thinking involves considering all possibilities, including those that seem to go beyond the boundaries of a given area - this is lateral, or lateral thinking. Management expert E. De Bono recommended not to rush to judgment and to preface the idea with the letters “RO”, which means: “Give this idea a chance, don’t kill it too quickly, it may lead to useful ideas.”

A common method used in management is the “Questionnaire” method. These sheets can serve as idea indexes. They can relate to a specific area of activity of the enterprise or be general, for example: marketing, design, finance, etc. The so-called Osborne questionnaire is widely used. Its main subheadings are the following: use for another purpose, adapt, modify, reduce, replace, reorganize, combine. Managers should be aware that questionnaires should be used with caution as they can stifle creativity by limiting the areas of inquiry.

The “Day Dreams” method. If long-term intensive work on a problem does not provide an innovative solution, then in such a situation complete relaxation and daydreaming can lead to creative insight.

The "Group Genius" method. Allows you to bring together in one group several individuals who usually use different types of creative thinking, forming a group capable of combining different methods.

When carrying out all of the above methods, the following four rules should be observed:

1. Refrain from premature judgments - exclude premature criticism of any idea.
2. Be relaxed.
3. Try to increase the number of ideas.
4. Combine and improve ideas expressed by others (“cross-pollination”).

Methods of making management decisions

Introduction

1 Decision making process

2 Methods of making management decisions

Conclusion

References

Introduction

Successful manager is distinguished by the quality of management decision-making, the main criteria being effectiveness and efficiency. The effectiveness of a management decision is determined by how well it corresponds to the task facing the manager and how he solves it. Making management decisions is a key competency of a manager; this process involves a certain stage and systematic approach.

Effective management decisions are the key to increasing the efficiency of all social production. The decisions we make directly determine what results we get.

Actually, as an independent branch of management, the discipline of “management decisions” emerged relatively recently, this is due to a number of factors. Every day we make a huge number of different decisions. Some of them do not have any global significance in our lives, some are quite significant, sometimes we do things without thinking, sometimes it takes a very long time to decide. But in any case, we ourselves are always responsible for what we do. And if we are responsible for making these decisions for someone (team, staff, family, friends), then the responsibility is much higher.

It is in order to justify responsibility, to learn to make the most correct and effective decisions in the field of business, people management, flows, and the science of management decision making was separated into an independent branch.

Decision making is an integral part of any management function. The need to make decisions permeates everything a manager does, setting goals and achieving them. Therefore, understanding the nature of decision making is extremely important for anyone who wants to succeed in the art of management.

Effective decision making is essential to performing management functions. Improving the process of making informed, objective decisions in situations of exceptional complexity is achieved through the use of a scientific approach to this process, models and quantitative methods of decision-making.

So, the topic of this course work is methods of making management decisions.

The relevance of this topic is explained by the fact that the success and efficiency of the company depends on the correctly chosen method or group of decision-making methods.

The object of the work is the process of making management decisions, and the subject is methods of making management decisions.

Thus, the purpose of this course work is to analyze existing methods of making management decisions.

To achieve this goal, it is necessary to complete the following tasks:

Review the decision-making process;

Study methods of making management decisions;

Conduct an analysis of the methodology for making management decisions in TC "Petrovich".

Chapter 1. Methodology for decision making in an organization

1.1 Decision making process

The decision-making process from a technological point of view can be represented as a sequence of stages and procedures that have direct and feedback connections among themselves. Feedbacks reflect the iterative, cyclical nature of the dependency between steps and procedures. Iterations in the implementation of elements of the decision-making process are due to the need to clarify and adjust data after subsequent procedures have been completed. From an information point of view, uncertainty is reduced in the decision-making process. The formulation of a problem situation seems to give rise to the question “what to do?” Consistent implementation of procedures leads to the formation of an answer to this question in the form of “what should be done and how.”

Decision-making procedures can be carried out through thinking by the decision maker and experts, that is, creatively, informally, and using formal means - mathematical methods and computers. In the decision-making process, the problem of search, recognition, classification, ordering and selection is solved. To solve these problems, methods of analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, comparison and generalization are used.

Formal procedures consist of carrying out calculations using certain algorithms for the purpose of analyzing solution options, assessing the required resources, narrowing down the set of solution options, etc. The formal procedures are carried out by the decision maker, experts, technical staff and technical means.

Presentation of the decision-making process as a logically ordered set of informal and formal procedures (there is a description of the technological scheme for performing this process. Such a description allows you to structurally organize the decision-making process and determine the information model of the process, on the basis of which the collection, processing and storage of the necessary information is rationally organized.

There are three stages in the decision-making process: setting the problem, forming a solution and choosing a solution. On stage! When setting a problem, the following procedures are performed: identification and description of the problem situation; determining the time required to make a decision; determination of resources necessary for decision-making. The problem formulation stage should provide answers to the questions: what problem and under what conditions needs to be solved? when should it be addressed? What forces and means will solve the problem?

At the stage of decision formation, the following procedures are performed:

-analysis of the problem situation;

-formation of situations;

-formation of goals;

-definition of restrictions;

-generation of solutions;

-Measuring decision preferences.

The main goal of the second stage is to generate decision options and evaluate their preferences.

At the decision selection stage, the following procedures are performed

determination of permissible (acceptable) solutions;

formation of criteria for choosing a solution;

determination of effective (non-dominated) solutions;

determination of a unique solution.

Figure 1. Decision-making process diagram

management decision making

In Fig. Figure 1 shows a diagram of the decision-making process. Thin lines show the sequence of execution of procedures and iterative loops. Thick lines show information flows.

In order to make a management decision, each manager must have a good understanding not only of the conceptual apparatus, but also be sufficiently skilled in applying in practice:

§ management decision methodology;

§ methods for developing management decisions;

§ organizing the development of management decisions;

§ assessment of the quality of management decisions.

Let's try to briefly consider the manager's tools and conceptual apparatus.

1.2 Methods of making management decisions

Some decisions, usually typical and repetitive, can be successfully formalized, that is, made according to a predetermined algorithm. In other words, a formalized decision is the result of performing a predetermined sequence of actions. For example, when drawing up a schedule for repair maintenance of equipment, the shop manager may proceed from a standard that requires a certain ratio between the amount of equipment and maintenance personnel. If there are 50 pieces of equipment in a workshop, and the maintenance standard is 10 units per repair worker, then the workshop must have five repair workers. Similarly, when a financial manager decides to invest surplus funds in government securities, he chooses between various types bonds depending on which of them provide given time the highest return on invested capital. The choice is made on the basis of a simple calculation of the final profitability for each option and determining the most profitable one.

Formalization of decision-making increases management efficiency by reducing the likelihood of error and saving time: there is no need to re-develop a solution every time a corresponding situation arises. Therefore, the management of organizations often formalizes solutions for certain, regularly recurring situations, developing appropriate rules, instructions and standards.

At the same time, in the process of managing organizations, new, atypical situations and non-standard problems are often encountered that cannot be solved formally. In such cases, intellectual abilities, talent and personal initiative of managers play a big role.

Of course, in practice, most decisions occupy an intermediate position between these two extreme points, allowing both the manifestation of personal initiative and the use of a formal procedure in the process of their development. Specific Methods, used in the decision making process are discussed below.

Number of selection criteria

If the choice of the best alternative is made according to only one criterion (which is typical for formalized decisions), then the decision made will be simple, single-criteria. Conversely, when the chosen alternative must satisfy several criteria simultaneously, the decision will be complex and multi-criteria. In management practice, the vast majority of decisions are multi-criteria, since they must simultaneously meet such criteria as: profit volume, profitability, quality level, market share, employment level, implementation period, etc.

Decision form

The person making the choice from the available alternatives for the final decision can be one person and his decision will be accordingly sole. However, in modern management practice, complex situations and problems are increasingly encountered, the solution of which requires a comprehensive, integrated analysis, i.e., the participation of a group of managers and specialists. Such group, or collective, decisions are called collegial. Increased professionalization and deepening specialization of management lead to the widespread spread of collegial forms of decision-making. It must also be kept in mind that certain solutions and are legally classified as collegial. For example, certain decisions in a joint stock company (on the payment of dividends, distribution of profits and losses, major transactions, election of governing bodies, reorganization, etc.) fall under the exclusive competence of the general meeting of shareholders. The collegial form of decision-making, of course, reduces the efficiency of management and “erodes” responsibility for its results, but it prevents gross errors and abuses and increases the validity of the choice.

Method of fixing the solution

On this basis, management decisions can be divided into fixed, or documentary (i.e., drawn up in the form of some kind of document - an order, instruction, letter, etc.), and undocumented (not having a documentary form, oral). Most decisions in the management apparatus are documented, but small, insignificant decisions, as well as decisions made in emergency, acute, and urgent situations, may not be documented.

Nature of information used

Depending on the degree of completeness and reliability of the information available to the manager, management decisions can be deterministic (made under conditions of certainty) or probabilistic (adopted under conditions of risk or uncertainty). These conditions play an extremely important role in decision making.

Almost any decision-making method used in management can technically be considered a form of simulation. However, by tradition, the term “model” usually refers only to methods general, as well as to their many specific varieties. In addition to modeling, there are a number of methods that can assist a manager in finding an objectively justified decision to select from several alternatives the one that most contributes to achieving goals.

The payment matrix is one of the methods of statistical decision theory, a method that can assist a manager in choosing one of several options. It is especially useful when a manager must determine which strategy will most contribute to achieving goals. A payoff matrix is useful when there are a reasonably limited number of alternatives, what might happen is not known with certainty, and the outcome of the decision depends on which alternative is chosen and what events take place.

In addition, the manager must be able to objectively assess the probability of relevant events and calculate the expected value of such probability. A leader rarely has complete certainty or complete uncertainty. In almost all decision-making situations, the manager is faced with the probability or possibility of an event.

According to N. Paul Loomba: “Payment represents the monetary reward or utility that results from a particular strategy in combination with particular circumstances. If payments are presented in the form of a table (or matrix), we get a payment matrix.” The words “in conjunction with the particular circumstances” are very important to understand when a payment matrix can be used and to assess when a decision made based on it is likely to be reliable. In its most general form, a matrix means that payment depends on certain events that actually occur. If such an event or state of nature does not actually occur, the payment will inevitably be different.

In general, a payment matrix is useful when:

There are a reasonably limited number of alternatives or strategy options to choose between.

What might happen is not known with complete certainty.

The results of a decision depend on which alternative is chosen and what events actually take place.

Decision tree is another popular management science technique used to select the best course of action from available options. “a decision tree is a diagrammatic representation of a decision-making problem.” Like the payment matrix, the decision tree gives the manager the opportunity to “take into account various directions actions, correlate with them financial results, adjust them according to the probability assigned to them, and then compare the alternatives.” The concept of expected value is an integral part of the decision tree method.

The decision tree method can be used in situations similar to the one described above in connection with the consideration of the payment matrix. In this case, it is assumed that the data on results, probabilities, etc. do not affect all subsequent decisions. However, a decision tree can be built for a more complex situation, when the results of one decision affect subsequent decisions. Thus, a decision tree is a useful tool for making sequential decisions.

So, let's analyze the most common methods of making management decisions.

Brainstorming is undertaken by a group as an idea generation process where all possible alternatives are considered from a critical point of view.

The nominal group method limits discussion or communication with each other to a certain limit. Group members attend the meeting but act independently. First, the problem is stated, and then the following steps are taken:

1.Before the discussion begins, everyone independently writes down their thoughts or ideas on the issue;

2.All ideas are recorded by each group member

.The group discusses ideas to clarify and evaluate them

.Each group member independently determines the importance rating of all ideas. The final solution is determined as the idea with the highest overall rating.

The main advantage of this method is that it allows the group to formally meet together, but does not limit the independence of everyone's thinking.

The most difficult and time-consuming is to use the Delphi method. It is similar to the nominal group method with the difference that the physical presence of all group members is not required. The Delphi method eliminates group members meeting each other face to face. This method is characterized by the following steps:

1.A problem is identified and group members are asked to provide possible solutions by answering a carefully designed questionnaire.

2.Each group member answers the first questionnaire anonymously and independently.

.The results of the first questionnaire are collected at the center, transcribed and summarized

.Each group member receives a copy of the results

.After viewing the results, experts are asked to give their solutions again. As a rule, new solutions are given or changes appear in the original position.

.These steps are repeated as often as necessary.

The advantage of the method is the independence of the opinions of experts located at a spatial distance from each other.

Between group and individual decision making lies the method in which a leader continually relies on trained advisors before making a decision. He understands the need for advice and consultation and knows how to use the potential of the group to resolve an urgent issue in an informed and timely manner.

There are also the following methods for analyzing management decisions.

Analysis is a mental operation of dividing the object under study into elements and studying each of them separately. Analysis is not possible without synthesis. Synthesis is a reverse mental operation of combining elements into a single whole and studying the object as a whole.

Comparison method - allows you to determine deviations from planned indicators, establish their causes and identify the reasons. Requires comparability of compared indicators

Index method - used in the study of complex phenomena, the individual elements of which are not measurable. It allows factorization of the relative absolute deviations of the generalizing indicator.

The balance method involves a comparison of interrelated indicators in order to clarify and measure their mutual influence, as well as calculate production efficiency reserves.

The method of chain substitutions consists of obtaining adjusted values of a generalizing indicator by sequentially replacing the basic values of factors with actual values.

Elimination method - allows you to isolate the effect of one factor on generalized production indicators, excluding the effects of other factors.

The graphical method is a means of illustrating the results through charts, graphs, and tables.

Functional cost analysis is a method of systematic research of an object (which is used purposefully) to increase beneficial effect or return per unit of total costs for the life cycle of objects.

Factor analysis (with the use of a computer) is a procedure for establishing the strength of influence of factors on a function or an effective characteristic, with the aim of ranking factors for developing a plan of organizational and technical measures to improve the function.

Economic and mathematical methods are used to analyze and select optimal options for business decisions in given economic conditions.

SWOT analysis consists of making efforts to transform a company's weaknesses into strengths and threats into opportunities.

So, these methods allow you to systematically make decisions that are more effective, which is important in a management system.

Chapter 2. Analysis of the methodology for making management decisions in TC "Petrovich"

1 General characteristics organization and goal analysis

TC "Petrovich" is a well-established company, a leader in the supply of cheese, dairy and fat-and-oil products for wholesale and retail trading enterprises Chelyabinsk, region, neighboring regions.

The company is distinguished by:

ü timely delivery of goods,

ü individual approach to each client,

ü wide range of products,

ü competitive prices

ü flexible system of discounts.

The company uses flexible modern circuits sales - from large wholesale to our own retail network. In Chelyabinsk the sales network is represented by:

ü central wholesale base (working with wholesalers in Chelyabinsk)

ü regional sales department (working with wholesalers in the Chelyabinsk region)

ü city branch (working with chains and stores)

ü small wholesale sales department (small wholesale boxes in all major markets of Chelyabinsk)

ü retail sales department (branded departments in city shopping malls)

Today in Chelyabinsk there are 19 small wholesale and 28 retail branded departments. Fresh products are delivered to them every day, taking into account the needs of the assortment. Currently, about 150 people work in retail sales today, concluding about 4 thousand transactions per day. The monthly turnover of products reaches two and a half thousand tons. The work of trade missions has been organized in the cities of the Chelyabinsk region and neighboring regions.

All products are delivered in refrigerators; departments also have modern refrigeration equipment installed, which allows us to comply with product storage standards.

The company organizes tastings of new products for merchandise experts in stores and retail customers at its own retail outlets.

In order to promote products, staff of both their own and client retail stores are trained in the correct cutting and display of cheese and other products.

Company mission: Balance of quality and price. We always rely on a quality product that creates a solid reputation and good name.

The general strategic goal of the company is to constantly improve the quality and expand the range of products provided.

Strategic Goals:

Providing quality products that fully satisfy the needs and desires of customers;

Increasing competitiveness;

Improving the status and image of the company;

Introduction of a flexible system of discounts for regular customers;

Increasing customer loyalty and attracting new market segments;

Exit to international market.

Financial goals:

1.Occupying 30% of the cheese sales market in Chelyabinsk

2.An increase in the number of clients by an average of 3-4 people per day for the period from 01.11.08 - 01.01.09 and, consequently, an increase in profits;

.Increase in profit in 2009 compared to 2008 by 15%;

.Stable income during periods of economic downturn;

.Recognition of the durable financial situation companies.

These goals are formulated clearly, clearly, specifically, achievable in time, relevant (i.e. according to the smart principle), which will certainly have a positive impact on the company’s activities as a whole.

2.2 Analysis of methods for making management decisions in TC "Petrovich"

Let's start by analyzing the problem. A problem is understood as a critical discrepancy between what is desired and real state. In the Petrovich company, these are well-established supplies and poorly delivered sales, whereas with good supplies, sales should not lag behind in order to be able to invest free financial resources in even greater expansion of supplies or their improvement.

The process of constructing a problem tree allows you to structure a problem. The problem tree is shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1. Problem tree of TC “Petrovich”

Let us analyze the external factors influencing this problem.

External factors causing changes may come from various sources. A generally accepted means of classifying them is STEP - factors. - Social factors, i.e. changes in taste and social values and needs, changes in fashion and trends- Technological factors, i.e. availability of new technologies, information systems and communication channels- Economic factors, i.e. the current and expected future state of the economy, changes in exchange rates and interest rates, changes or additions to the financing system, processes associated with changes in determining the minimum cost of living - Political factors, i.e. changes in the composition of local authorities, government and at the international level, changes in legislation on the rights and obligations of employees and employers, sellers and buyers, private entrepreneurs, changes in regulatory documents and everything related to office work, etc.

We will conduct a STEP analysis of the existing sales strategy: - Social factors.

The desire of staff to improve their level of qualifications in the field of sales

The impact of various trends in the field of effective sales on personnel. - Technological factors.

Introduction of new technologies. Economic factors.

The cost of new methods in personnel management.

Cost of resources spent on personnel training.

Wages personnel

InflationPolitical factors.

Labor protection for workers.

Thus, the development of the existing sales strategy of TC "Petrovich" depends mainly on social factors and economic factors, since in this area their influence determines the attitude of the staff, their needs and shows the main problems, as well as technological factors, this is due to the activities of the organization.

Possible consequences of not solving a problem situation may be the following:

1.Reduction in company profits;

2.Loss of a significant part of clients;

.Decreased staff motivation;

.Deterioration of the company's image;

.Liquidation of the company.

Development of criteria and limitations for management decisions

The criterion for the effectiveness of a management decision is expressed, as a rule, in the form of a set of indicators and acts as a measure of knowledge of the phenomenon being studied.

When choosing a criterion for the effectiveness of a solution, one should be guided by the following basic requirements:

§ firstly, it must be expressed quantitatively, i.e. have a physical meaning;

§ secondly, it should most fully reflect the results of the decision;

§ thirdly, be quite simple, understandable and specific.

Typically, the process of selecting a performance criterion is based on logical reasoning and intuition of the decision maker.

The main criteria for making management decisions in TC “Petrovich” are the following:

1.Cost of solving the problem

2.Increase in supply volumes

.Increase in income (number of clients)

.Image enhancement

Development of management decision alternatives

So, the management of the enterprise has identified the most important strategic development company problem. It is associated with the restructuring of the operating principles of the company's marketing division.

As part of solving this problem, several directions for solving it can be identified. On the one hand, this is a change in the methodological approach to organizing the marketing service in the company. On the other hand, this is a change in influence human factor to solve the problem.

Several alternatives for management solutions to this problem can be proposed. We present them in the form of a decision tree (Figure 2):

Rice. 2 Decision tree

That is, the main method of making management decisions in TC "Petrovich" is a decision tree, it gives the manager the opportunity to take into account various directions of action, correlate financial results with them, adjust them in accordance with the probability assigned to them, and then compare alternatives.

Therefore, we can offer the following alternatives:

1.Form new structure marketing department of the company.

2.Adopt as the main program in the personnel motivation system the program of material interest of personnel in increasing sales volumes and bonuses based on the company’s performance for each quarter.

.Build a sales system through attracting dealers and distributors on a contractual basis.

.Establish the pricing policy according to the “cost plus” system.

.Conduct market research for the products offered (cheeses and fat-and-oil products) and consumer preferences, and then develop an assortment of products sold and a sales program in accordance with the research results.

The criterion for assessing the effectiveness of solving the problem posed will be the creation of a marketing service at the enterprise in which all manufactured products will be sold during the production period of the next batch of products with maximum profit.

Selecting an Alternative

To make a final decision on each option under study, it is necessary to compare both the effect obtained as a result of the decision and the possible costs (monetary, labor, material and other resources) for its implementation. Quantitative assessment of the effect obtained as a result of making a particular decision is expressed not only in monetary form, but also depends on changes in the composition of capital investments, social working conditions, psychological climate etc. Comparison of options involves eliminating unsuitable ones and selecting the most acceptable ones. The analysis is carried out using methods of economic and systems analysis.

In the most general form, the choice of the final solution is determined by the nature of the task, available resources, and information security of the management process.

Of the proposed solutions to the problem, two satisfied the company immediately:

firstly, changing the pricing policy is not possible, because this market independently regulates the price level based on supply and demand;

secondly, changing the structure of the marketing service is considered inappropriate, because the company has qualified specialists, and searching for new personnel will take time and lead to additional costs cash.

The only realistic options left are changing the sales strategy based on studying customer demand.

To make a decision that requires identifying and taking into account a significant number of factors, it is advisable to involve those employees who are more or less familiar with the problem posed and will be able to give certain recommendations when considering it. It is noted that group decisions are more effective provided that the group is small in composition and the number of its members has the opportunity for direct communication to discuss decisions. At the same time, the value of a decision made by a group is higher and its competence is greater than a decision made individually.

So, a decision was made to change the sales strategy while simultaneously studying consumers and their demand for products.

To do this, we compiled the following tree of goals (see Fig. 3)

Figure 3. Goal tree

In accordance with the above decision tree, it is necessary to establish all risk points in order to eliminate them in advance from the practical activities of the company. For the considered TC “Petrovich” the following risk situations can be identified:

§ The developed range of products was not in demand on the market and there was a need for an urgent sale of remaining inventory;

§ A technological failure occurred, which resulted in non-fulfillment of contractual obligations and additional costs for restoring the sales process and penalties.

Making a management decision

Having made the final management decision, the head of TC Petrovich drew up the following order:

Order No. 106

“On changing the sales strategy

To put into effect from February 1, 2009 a new system for selling goods, focused on effective sales, as well as increasing the number of customers.

Increased sales volume and improved product quality. I leave control over execution to myself.
Approve the new staffing schedule of the enterprise for 2009. I entrust control over implementation to the director of economics and finance.
Approve and put into effect from February 1, 2009 a new system of training and advanced training for personnel. I leave control over execution to myself.
Approve new list necessary competencies for personnel upon hiring from February 1, 2009. I entrust control over implementation to the HR Director.
Approve the new standard “Quality Management System” from February 1, 2009. I entrust control over implementation to the technical director.

General manager

TO. Markevich

Implementation plan for the management decision made

1.Familiarization of personnel with Order No. 106 “On changing the sales strategy”

2.Conducting market research and consumer preferences

.Development of a new range of products sold

.Concluding agreements with new suppliers of cheeses and butter and fat products

.Organization of a new product delivery system just in time

.Introduction of a discount system for regular customers

.Send staff to training and advanced training courses

.Checking the effectiveness of the measures introduced and, if necessary, adjusting them

Conclusion

Summing up this course work, we can conclude that the goal of the work has been achieved - we have analyzed existing methods of making management decisions.

At the stage of choosing a solution, it is necessary to determine methods for forming selection criteria. They are most fully developed for well-structured solutions, where it is possible to use methods of quantitative analysis and electronic data processing. Economic and mathematical methods are often used to solve management problems, which make it possible to use the target function as a selection criterion, which is usually necessary maximize or minimize. This choice is called optimization. Examples of optimization criteria are: maximum profit, income, productivity; minimum costs, losses from marriage.

To evaluate options for weakly structured solutions, a system of weighted criteria is used. A model is often used that allows one to make not an optimal, but a satisfactory solution, which is considered quite good, since it meets the set restrictions and o ensures improvement of the problem situation.

The method of communicating the decision to the implementers is most often the creation of an implementation plan, which includes a system of measures to ensure successful achievement e set goals. Along with methods of direct influence (order, instruction, instructions), methods of material incentives are used, meetings are held between employees and management M, the essence of the decisions taken is explained. All of them are aimed at overcoming resistance to innovations, at increasing the interest of employees in obtaining the planned result. The use of methods for monitoring the execution of work related to the implementation of the solution is of great importance.

Developing and making a decision is essentially choosing from several possible solutions to a given problem. Options for decisions made can be realistic, optimistic and pessimistic. A sign of the scientific organization of management, the scientific style and methods of work of a manager is the choice of the best solution from several possible ones. The final solution to the problem comes after “playing” various options, grouping them by importance, and rejecting those that are obviously unsuitable and unrealistic. You should also beware of the desire to speed up the decision-making process, which sometimes entails inaccuracies and distortions in the decisions made. When choosing the final solution, it is necessary to take into account a huge number of different influences and possibilities for miscalculation, explained both by the subjective data of the employee himself and by some objective data of the calculation accuracy mechanism itself. The manager must take into account that in practical, real reality it is rarely possible to implement only one option, which has a clear and significant advantage over others. When making a final decision, it is also necessary to foresee the possibility of only partial success or failure of the decision being made, and therefore it is recommended to pre-plan auxiliary (backup) activities, which, in the event of failure of the decision made, can be carried out instead of those planned.

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